How do we know Pinn isn't getting the information from our betting for free?

[mathdotcom]

Pinnacle does everything well so I would expect no less

[smoke a bowl]

Pinnacle does everything well so I would expect no less

I can't argue with that.

[Monte]

I saw lines move in *my favor* often enuf when i hit the confirm screen...

[wrongturn]

this thread has think tank material.

[mathdotcom]

this thread has think tank material.

TT is dead

[SportsMushroom]

this thread has think tank material.

why

all he is doing is accusing pinnacle of cheating, just wording it a bit more eloquently than 'those fukaz took my moniez'

also to suggest that pinnacle wants his betting information is kind of an oxymoron since he also hints in this thread and others that he is an arbitrator and not a professional, pinnacle is known to value the opinion of professional bettors when moving their lines

[Monte]

he also hints in this thread and others that he is an arbitrator and not a professional

He must be pretty good, if he posts screens full of 5k arbs in these times where books don't take being hit on weak lines lightly.
Either that, or arbing vs. crap books and hoping he doesn't get burned.

[subs]

shitty books do it all the time...

wouldn't be too hard to check pinny but waste of time + money.

[Jayvegas420]

I have a related question.
Say you were actually the big bettor, who laid the huge bet & actually moved the line because of your big bet with that particular book.
Do you get the inflated line that you yourself moved or do you get the original line & then everyone else after that gets the new line?

[Ace_of_Spades]

What do you have to say on the topic?

I'm certain Pinnacle wouldn't waste their time viewing forums.

[BetterBizness]

I've had lines move for and against me almost equally... clearly my empirical evidence says that this thread is sheit....

[MonkeyF0cker]

Let's take NBA 2h totals as an example.

Suppose they open 95 -105/-105. For simplicity assume other books are 95 -110/-110 and not posting a different total.

Now, if I want the under I can try to get them to move the line in my favor by popping the over. Max bet there is $5000 for a regular account (Yes, guys, not everyone has the same limits despite what they claim in Loshak's crappy interview videos). Then the line moves to O95 -110, U95 +100. The best I can hope for is another book to overreact and move to 95.5 -110/-110, and is indeed fairly likely. I hit the U95.5 -110 which has higher EV than the U95 -105 opener at Pinnacle. But I'm still stuck with O95 -105 and getting 5k of U95 +100 should not compensate. This whole dance got me U95.5 -110 at 3 cents better than U95 -105 but I gave up 5cents at Pinnacle. I'm guessing this doesn't do better than just hitting the opener of U95 -105 straight away.

Plus a lot of things can go wrong. As soon as Pinn moves to O95 -110, U95 +100, another guy might pound the under and the line immediately goes back to -105/-105.

If we're dealing with something like MLB openers, it could work if you get all the other books moving on air, but I feel for 2H markets they can more easily get away with it because everyone knows the line moves a lot. Though sometimes the line won't move for 5 minutes and then I'll go to bet it and all of a sudden there's a line change? Hmm..

Definitely different with 2H wagers since there is such a limited timeframe for wagering. Could they do it? Certainly. Would they risk people finding out about it? I tend to doubt it.

[ChalkyDog]

I thought it strange that the line is always changing against me after confirm. In my betting life line has moved against me every time except a recent 2h bet I placed, which was -115 when I clicked to confirm, and dropped to -110 upon notice of "line" change. That actually caught me by surprise. I went ahead and confirmed it. 2h was a loser.

Pissed me off real bad recently when they went in and changed it to a half point against me after confirm. Come back to look at lines 5 minutes later, and it is back to where it was originally when I went to place it (or in other words, a half point in my favor since confirming the bet). It was on a large play...

Not sure if they do it on maliciously, as was the intent of the OP. But it is disconcerting to say the least that I am always on the side with it moving against me (save one instance).

[Kolotoure]

Seems like a standard case of confirmation bias to me

[wantitall4moi]

I havent made a bet with Pinny since 08 so not sure. I know they changed software a few times and that might have something to do with it. I probably made 50K bets with Pinnacle bets with Pinnacle over the years and the times the line moved during my bet (between typing in amount and hitting confirm) would be almost non existent. Those plays covered years and several diferent software changes also. So I doubt very highly Pinnacle is account profiling or using info gained by profiling players for their own personal use.

Now with that being said I had more than one account there and didnt always do the same thing with each of them, but I never ever saw anything out of the ordinary with them. But now that they arent taking US action I am not sure. But I played with them for a year and a half after they stopped taking bets from Americans and I didnt see anything change that much in that time.

Pinnacle did do a few things though that most books wouldnt. They would target specific games and offer 'no brainer' buy back numbers on games where they (assumed) had massive one way action. Might only last a very short time but they would do it. So to me that says they arent in the habit of gambling and will welcome scalps and side shots (with big vig) on games where they are very lopsided.

[diondublin]

I've always wondered about this myself with all the books. It seems like a line moves against me around 80 to 90% of the time when it changes.

80%? Tee hee.

It's because you are trying to take the best line and by far the most likely move by the outlying bookie is a regression towards the mean.

[andywend]

If you're a serious gambler, then the vast majority of line changes are going to move against you as you probably have accounts at several books and will end up betting the game at the book that has the best line for the side you want.

I.E. You like the Lakers and you see the following lines:

Lakers -6 (-104) - Pinnacle
Lakers -6 (-110) - Bookmaker
Lakers -6 (-108) - Heritage
Lakers -6 (-101) - 5 Dimes.

When you go to bet the Lakers -6 (-101) @ 5 Dimes how can a line change possibly go in your favor? Anyone who bets enough to materially change the line isn't going to be taking the other side Team B +6 @ -121.

[wrongturn]

I don't see any sites other than pinny have message "WINNERS WELCOME" on the front page. It must mean something, at least make winners feel welcomed.

[wantitall4moi]

I don't see any sites other than pinny have message "WINNERS WELCOME" on the front page. It must mean something, at least make winners feel welcomed.

It plays into the psyche of most people who bet offshore that a vast majority of books dont like winners and will limit you or close your account if you show too much ability to make money from them. I doubt very highly it has anything to do with profiling or getting a 'boardroom' of 'sharp' bettors and allowing them to set the price for Pinnacle.

If enough big players are on the same side then I am sure there will be cause and effect and the price will move a lot in one direction. But what most people dont get is once a line moves it is too late to do anything with it, except bet the opposite side. Which most people arent willing to do unless they have a position already on the other side and that opposite side offers them 'free' money.

Seriously, people need to completely forget this notion that books gamble and that books are smarter than everyone. Their whole goal is to make money regardless of who wins. While that cant always be guaranteed over the long haul it can be achieved.

Books are operating on fairly small holds, especially Pinnacle, their average hold on most 'normal' bets is around 3% I would say. hard to gamble there. They do now offer live betting and have always offered futures with pretty high limits, that I would say accounts for a vast majority of their profits. As it does with most books. But because they offer better odds, and less vig than most places they get more parlay players, more gimmick guys and more advantage players. So they get a wide variety of guys looking to take shots. But they also have a lot more volume than the average book does as wlll. That makes a big difference in what they can and cant do.

Basically Pinnacle takes the generic opener and puts a spin on it, and even then the spin is going to be very minute. If CRIS or Greek or some other 'standard' opens a game -4 -110 both ways. Pinnacle generally opened it -4 -105 both ways. Now obviously BOTH sides of that game have 'value' with Pinnacle versus other shops at -110. Plus I think overnight limits are larger at Pinny now than those places. Although like I say I havent played there in awhile but they were the last time I made bets at the greek and Pinnacle.

So if Pinny opens -4 -105 and some guy hammers the game and the line moves to -4 +100/-110 A lot of people call that a 'lean' or an opinion or 'some sharp bet that side'. But more often than not with Pinnacle the first move they make is actually opposite what generally happens overall. So why would they move the line one way and then take action steadily the opposite way? To trick people? Because the first bet was made by a guy they profiled as 'sharp'? Or more than likely because some one bet it with enough money to make it move? It takes a lot less money to move a 'virgin' line than it does to move one that has taken hours of action. That is just common sense.

People need to stop guessing at why books do what they do and lines do what they do and simply handle their own business. If having an odds screen or access to instant line moves really matter books would have bought them out years ago and eliminated them.

[Azzurri]

I've always wondered about this myself with all the books. It seems like a line moves against me around 80 to 90% of the time when it changes.

Strange as it might seem, i have had this happen many times myself and it seems like its 90% against me and a very small 10% of the time it goes my way...hmmmmm

[Harmy G]

but what most people dont get is once a line moves it is too late to do anything with it, except bet the opposite side.

false

but more often than not with pinnacle the first move they make is actually opposite what generally happens overall.

false

if having an odds screen or access to instant line moves really matter books would have bought them out years ago and eliminated them.

false

[ODDmaster]

Lines have to move ,to ensure PINN profits from match.

[poloyol]

Math...for your sake i hope your kidding.They have computer based software calculating all the money coming in.Won't get into details.

[Blackroc78]