How to spot fixes in tennis

[daggerkobe]

Watch the lines on Pinny and when there's a large drop on a heavy fav u know somethings up.

This morning for example there was a 50cent drop on Gulbis just prior to the match. I was actually going to go big on him but this unusual movement convinced me not to. I tried to put some on his opponent but was late due to my shitty iPhone connection.

Good thing because Gulbis lost as a big favorite.

The most obvious was when Davydenko dropped from like -500 to -200 last year. I took his opponent because of this. But unfortunately Davy retired and my book doesn't pay when that happens. This was the infamous fix match he was investigated for.

[donjuan]

Lol retiring doesn't equal fix. Most books no action tennis bets where a player retires so why would someone throwing a match retire?

[durito]

What percentage of matches do you think are fixed daggerkobe?

What percentage of sports games overall?

[daggerkobe]

At majority of books a match is official after either the first set or the second. Davydenko retired in the third set so most paid.

Not to mention millions of money poured in on his opponent in live betting even after Davy had taken a set and a break lead.

[LT Profits]

Anytime I lose a bet in any sport, it must be fixed.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Lol retiring doesn't equal fix. Most books no action tennis bets where a player retires so why would someone throwing a match retire?

There are plenty that don't void at all, or require only a first set to be complete. At rpoints I recently updated the list of bookies offering each, and although there's been a big shift to needing two sets or match complete entirely, there are still dozens who aren't.

In particular, betfair only need a single set to be complete, and that's where a lot of the problems have been.

[daggerkobe]

I believe there's rampant fixing in tennis when dozens of players openly say they had been approached to fix games. One player said he was offered $140k just to throw his first rd match. Other players were also caught betting on matches.

When the #4 player in the world is up a set and a break he should be a 20-1 favorite not an outright dog as he was to an unknown ranked in the 80s. Which followed the suspicious betting prior to the match. There was something definately fishy going on there.

I am also including tankings where a player shows up just to collect his appearance fee and lose so he can go prepare for a more lucrative tournament.

As for other sports there has definately been fixes I believe. In my 10+years of betting I've seen some strange calls. One was a MAC game where a ref calls offsides penalty on a CB (when have u ever seen that?) when it was the WR who was stepping over the line of scrimmage. That call saved the team as they failed to convert on 4th down. Or an Ivy league BB game where Princeton doesn't make a FG in the final 15 min of the game yet still win it because the clock operator forgot to start the clock for two seconds on the final possession. There are many more instances like this. But I do believe the fixing is more rampant in smaller conferences.

[Brady2Moss]

I think every league has fixing to some degree. Thats why if you bet lower profile games (ie. No public favorites, no MNF) you should avoid any fixes.

Fixes only occur when tons of money are on a game, stick to a Raiders @ Chiefs game and nobody will even watch it...

[EaglesPhan36]

Line movement isn't always a good indicator. Tennis fixes are hard to spot especially after all the hub bub from last year. These smaller tier tourneys have upsets galore, so you can't exactly point out a "fix" just because a favorite loses. Alot of times, these guys are losing because they're just not up for the event because there aren't big names in it, etc. IMO.

[single shaker]

Line movement isn't always a good indicator. Tennis fixes are hard to spot especially after all the hub bub from last year. These smaller tier tourneys have upsets galore, so you can't exactly point out a "fix" just because a favorite loses. Alot of times, these guys are losing because they're just not up for the event because there aren't big names in it, etc. IMO.

agree with you EP, movement of the line not always an indicator, because in the smaller tourny it does not take much to move the line, and all upsets in the smaller events mostly means that higher ranked players dont care. for me the biggest indicator of fixing is when player retires, eg. volandri retired today in the second set 0-4. it means he bet on himself and when things went south retired.

gulbis has no reason to throw matches, he is from very wealthy family and taking private jets to the events. i think in gulbis case somebody just figured out that gabashvili has a chance.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Huh? Why would you retire if you bet on yourself? That makes absolutely no sense.

[SBR Lou]

Huh? Why would you retire if you bet on yourself? That makes absolutely no sense.

A fair amount of books are official after the first set is complete. So I'd just interpret it to mean betting on yourself to lose or betting on under games played.

[daggerkobe]

Gulbis is above throwing a match because his parents are rich? Yeah and the Menendez brothers are above killing their parents for money.

Gulbis' parents are rich not him. Do u think Tori Spelling is rich since her father was worth $300M? No.... she got $800k in the will. That's why she has to continue to work. If someone offered Gulbis $500k to throw a match in an obcurr tournament he wouldn't do it? How do u know?

Whether a tournament is high profile or not the payouts are the same. There were what $8 million bet on the Davydenko match last year?

It takes a lot of money to move the line even 5 cents let alone 50. I once bet $5000 on a Canas match and it didn't even budge the line. And he was facing 100th ranked player!!!!!!! both Bodog and Pinny saw major drops on Gulbis which required tons of money.

[daggerkobe]

Like crazy said most books require 1 set or 2 to be complete to be official.

The majority of the betting occured at Betfair which only requires that the first set be completed.

Davydenko was up a set and a break yet all the money poured in on his 80+ranked opponent. He should have been at least a 10-1 favorite yet he was the DOG!!!!!!!!! And sure enough he loses the 2nd set and retires in the 3rd.

[durito]

It takes a lot of money to move the line even 5 cents let alone 50. I once bet $5000 on a Canas match and it didn't even budge the line. And he was facing 100th ranked player!!!!!!! both Bodog and Pinny saw major drops on Gulbis which required tons of money.

pinny moves lines based on sharp action (generally and market specific). you could bet $100,000 and they won't move. profiled players will move it.

[SBR Lou]

Gulbis is above throwing a match because his parents are rich? Yeah and the Menendez brothers are above killing their parents for money.

Gulbis' parents are rich not him. Do u think Tori Spelling is rich since her father was worth $300M? No.... she got $800k in the will. That's why she has to continue to work. If someone offered Gulbis $500k to throw a match in an obcurr tournament he wouldn't do it? How do u know?

Whether a tournament is high profile or not the payouts are the same. There were what $8 million bet on the Davydenko match last year?

It takes a lot of money to move the line even 5 cents let alone 50. I once bet $5000 on a Canas match and it didn't even budge the line. And he was facing 100th ranked player!!!!!!! both Bodog and Pinny saw major drops on Gulbis which required tons of money.

I think the implication is that Gulbis parents are not only rich, but wealthy. Therefor, maybe someone born into that kind of atmosphere isn't as driven or "hungry" to achieve greatness as someone who came from nothing and is trying with everything in them to win a championship not only for themselves, but for their families and to improve the quality of their lives. A few million bucks won't change Gulbis' world, and at 19 years old you have to figure that affects his tenacity when he gets down in matches.

[daggerkobe]

Thats the most ridiculous thing I've heard (referring to duritos post).

Books are in the vig business not the risk business. This is why u rarely hear about Vegas losing any money. When they do it's big news like last SB when they lost a few milion.

Corky could put $100k bet on a game and u better believe they will move the lines to induce betting on the other side.

[daggerkobe]

crazy do u really believe that?

He has accomplished so much as a 20 year old already. His highest ranking ever and almost reaching the quarters of the US Open. Not bad for someone whose first grand slam was in 2007.

Just because his parents are wealthy doesn't mean he has access to their bank account. I mean look at the Trump family for example. They had to work all their lives even though their father is a billionaire. And guess what happens if they do something he disapproves of, they get cut out of the will. Maybe Gulbis wants to be his own self made man. Wants his own money to do whatever he wishes and not ask mommy and daddy for permission. Some of the rich people I know are terrible control freaks using money to make their kids do what they want.

[durito]

Thats the most ridiculous thing I've heard (referring to duritos post).

.

You think sportsbooks don't profile their players?

[daggerkobe]

How does vegas profile bettors?

[durito]

How does vegas profile bettors?

I didn't know pinnacle was in las vegas.


Nevertheless, sportsbooks in vegas also profile players. Ask Justin about places he's not allowed to bet at.

[daggerkobe]

Link your source that says Pinny disregards six figure bets if not from a profiled sharp. I would really love to read it

[durito]

My source?

[durito]

I was referring to you specifically with the $100,000 reference.

[BeatTheJerk]

Durtio's a sharp guy and well respected on here DK i don't know if you wanna question his sources

[daggerkobe]

Oh so u don't really know.... just talking out of ur arse again. Gotcha.

[englishmike]

Betfair is now the worlds most highly self-regulated bookmaker in the world and has agreements with the Mens and womens golf and tennis tours to provide evidence if anything irregular is suspected.

The worst place to place a large bet on a dodgy tennis match would be Betfair.

[durito]

I don't know what?

It's common knowledge and fact that sportsbooks profile their players and move on sharp action.

[daggerkobe]

Durtio's a sharp guy and well respected on here DK i don't know if you wanna question his sources

Why not? I'm not the type that just blindly accepts someone claiming to be a sharp especially when he has admitted to lying about payouts.

[durito]

Why not? I'm not the type that just blindly accepts someone claiming to be a sharp especially when he has admitted to lying about payouts.

I admitted to what?

[daggerkobe]

You claimed placing $100k bet at Pinny specifically wouldn't result in line movement if ur not a sharp. Provide a link to such a claim.

[daggerkobe]

Betfair is now the worlds most highly self-regulated bookmaker in the world and has agreements with the Mens and womens golf and tennis tours to provide evidence if anything irregular is suspected.

The worst place to place a large bet on a dodgy tennis match would be Betfair.

This policy was instituted due to the aforementioned Davydenko match. Betfair refused to pay the winnings and confiscated them due to betting irregularities. Other books paid.

[durito]

Please show me where I admitted to "lying about payouts".

The $100,000 was in reference to the fact that Pinnacle would most likely profile you specifically as a giant square (no offense personally) and not move at all on your action.


....

Thats a nice write.

Pinnacle showed me a program they have that tells if a player is sharp and it had nothing to do with his win %. Its all about what line you get. If you get a bad line and you win and win and win a zillion dollars you are still square.

Couple of years back I bet 3 dimes on a college football game at Pinny and after I made the bet the line did not change. A few minutes later it moved the other way. The next week I was visiting Pinnacle and they explained to me that they dont move the line on "squares action". [fuvckers!] Oh and I lost the bet.

[BeatTheJerk]

Why not? I'm not the type that just blindly accepts someone claiming to be a sharp especially when he has admitted to lying about payouts.

Oh sorry DK i wasn't aware of this .................

[durito]

.

I have an account at a highly rated sportsbook which is set at 20% of the standard limit. If I make a single limit bet on anything, the line moves the full margin. The exact same line will not change one penny even after multiple 100% limit wagers from non-profiled accounts.