Question about a Betting System

[RedSox88]

First off I'd like to say this is NOT my idea as I do not believe in systems but my friends who for some reason wont open an account here wants to know whatyou think.

You've probably all heard of the martingale system of roulette betting:

You bet 10 on a certain color ( lets say red).

If it comes red you win your 10 dollar bet and place another 10 dollar bet.

If it loses you place a 20 dollar bet and if that hits you win 20 which will net a 10 dollar profit from the previous loss.

Obviously you keep doubling your bet

10 then 20 then 40 then 80 then 160 then 320 then 480 then 960 then.......

As long as red hits once every 8 spins you will continue to win 10 dollars...

Obviously this theory is flawed because of a few things:

Bankroll limitations - just not having the money to keep doubling your bet

Table limits - not allowing a bet over a certain amount.

But theoretically if there was not table limit and you had unlimited money you simply wounldn't be able to lose EVER.

Since its not the case that system doesnt work.

So after explaining this to my friend he still doesnt understand why it couldnt work for sports.

His theory:

Calculate a daily profit you would like to average at stick to that no matter what.

Say you want to net $150 per day (350 days out of the year)

350 x 150 = $52,500 per year

You don't need to make exactly 150 each and every day but it needs to average out to be so some days you will be trying to make more for days you lost.

So you walk into the sports book place 150 bet, if it wins you are done. you are not allowed to bet another dollar until tomorrow as you reached your daily goal and that should always be good enough.

This will limit going on huge downswings after yours wins.

You walk into a sports book and you bet 150, you lose. You bet 150 you lose again now you bet 300 to try to get even and then start all over until you can reach an amount your happy with.


OK OK OK

My input this system is ******. He doesn't account for the vig which will end up crushing his soul because we all know that when you win one and lose one your in the hole and not even.

I need some intelligent person to back me up on this cause for some reaosn in his head he wont believe me,

His official stand is he KNOWS he can average 150 a day sports betting and therfor can do it professionaly.

My god he has alot to learn

Let the flamming begin

[battle4life]

wont happen if he makes 150.00 a day for 7 days straight that is a miracle.thats 1,000 a week lmao no one can win everyday no 1 u can win long term yes but not daily.everyone losses on a day even the books.

[ChalkyDog]

It's called a chase system. Many people do it, many systems and variations of the system exist, most usually stopping at the 4th play, and calling it a "Loss" if and only if you get 4 losses in a row in the system.

I hate chase systems. I generally hate martingale, for 2 reasons 1) because the systems is 0ev, (or not +ev) due to the potential of a catastrophic loss (i.e. a loss on the 4th chase) and 2) I try like hell to follow bankroll management.

I only use martingale in blackjack - as that is what I was taught, still don't really like it, and have got up an left the table after 4 straight beats.

It's a system, used by a lot of people. More of a probability theory than anything - theory should be emphasized for the flaws of the system mentioned in your post.

The idea of making $150 a day off said system seems arbitrary and not realistic whatsoever. Doesn't matter how much you make in a day, as long as you are over the famed break even point longterm.

BOL!

[135steward]

How does he place 4-6 consecutive bets the same day? The game lasts a few hours, then the other games are over. And what's the difference between doing it with sports and using a roulette wheel? He can do that $10 thing you were talking about until he wins $150, then go get drunk or whatever. Either way, he'll go bust sooner or later, so he better have either a lot of savings or a day job.

[DrIn$entive]

If you want to see some sad Martingaler faces, just glance at the roulette display screens at the casino and when you see 6 or 7 of the same color in a row shown- walk over to that table and see how the martingale player is sweating the next spin. Love it when they say, "red has to come out now, since 6 blacks came out in a row". Its like they are just doomed,

[str]

Your friend has even carved out 15 days for a two week vacation.

This guy must be a real piece of work.

[FourLengthsClear]

After 8 straight losses, your friend is having to lay down over 62k on bet number 9 (accounting for vig) to win USD 150.
If he is a 50% handicapper it is statistically probable that he will face this situation within 7 months.

[smoke a bowl]

Only one way to find out. Tell him to put that incredible new system into practice.

[RedSox88]

haha thanks a otn guys exactly what i wanted to hear im gonna show this to him and if he still doesnt believe us then hes gonna end up having a couple decent days followed by a catastrophic loss.

Thanks again

[Sam Odom]

i like it

if i were taking his bets

[RedSox88]

haha seriously sam im prettysure if it was this easy we'd all be rich

tried telling him anything thats labeled a system will ruin you

[BeatTheJerk]

If you want to see some sad Martingaler faces, just glance at the roulette display screens at the casino and when you see 6 or 7 of the same color in a row shown- walk over to that table and see how the martingale player is sweating the next spin. Love it when they say, "red has to come out now, since 6 blacks came out in a row". Its like they are just doomed,

Why does a Martingale player have to keep betting red though ? I always ride the streaks on the wheel and not play the it's due color. I'll even play green occasionally when it hasn't hit for a while. Martingale with a cap bet usually something close to the max or the max is a way I have used it. Blackjack I have had better success rather than Roulette. Once your max cap bet loses you start over.

[JohnGalt2341]

Have him read this.... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy It might help. A better way to convince him might be to have him flip a coin 1000 times betting on either Heads or Tails every time and see if his theory stands.

[BeatTheJerk]

..................

[BeatTheJerk]

Why does a Martingale player have to keep betting red though ? I always ride the streaks on the wheel and not play the it's due color. I'll even play green occasionally when it hasn't hit for a while. Martingale with a cap bet usually something close to the max or the max is a way I have used it. Blackjack I have had better success rather than Roulette. Once your max cap bet loses you start over.

With a 2 dollar bet start I'll get up to 6 spins where I have to win once."2,4,8,16,32,64 at my casinos in Florida 90 dollars is the max bet. (single 0) With a 5 dollar bet start I'll get up to 5 spins to where I have to win once. "5,10,20,40,80. If I lose the 80 dollar bet or 64 on the 2 dollar start. I will start the whole process over.

[BeatTheJerk]

Obviously Blackjack is better for this system because it pays 2/1 when you hit.

[DrIn$entive]

Your friend has even carved out 15 days for a two week vacation.

This guy must be a real piece of work.

Maybe he works 25 hours a day, 8 days a week

[BeatTheJerk]

With a 2 dollar bet start I'll get up to 6 spins where I have to win once."2,4,8,16,32,64 at my casinos in Florida 90 dollars is the max bet. (single 0) With a 5 dollar bet start I'll get up to 5 spins to where I have to win once. "5,10,20,40,80. If I lose the 80 dollar bet or 64 on the 2 dollar start. I will start the whole process over.

I usually bring a minimum of 500 dollars, you have to bring enough for it incase it fails you, which it will, but if you keep at it and grind it out you can make a profit. At least it has worked for me more times than not. Definitely plus money on about 15 trips. Went bust twice which is -1,000. On the trips I won I averaged +215. So you do the math. I usually stay and play 2-3 hours each time.

[DrIn$entive]

Obviously you keep doubling your bet

10 then 20 then 40 then 80 then 160 then 320 then 480 then 960 then.......

As long as red hits once every 8 spins you will continue to win 10 dollars...


Let the flamming begin

[135steward]

Why does a Martingale player have to keep betting red though ? I always ride the streaks on the wheel and not play the it's due color. I'll even play green occasionally when it hasn't hit for a while. Martingale with a cap bet usually something close to the max or the max is a way I have used it. Blackjack I have had better success rather than Roulette. Once your max cap bet loses you start over.

[BeatTheJerk]

Go f u c k your sister. I'm up 3 G's doing it this way ....

[135steward]

Go f u c k your sister. I'm up 3 G's doing it this way ....

[BeatTheJerk]