Israel/US Attack on Iran Prop Bet Odds

[NHL Pro Capper]

What would you say the odds would be?

Setting up a bet with a friend and I say before the end of the year...he says no way, i say yes way

War meaning multiple attacks via aircraft/cruise missile, spec ops ADMITTED incursions, not the ones already this year taking out Iran's Nuke scientists like lame ducks...

What choo guys think?

+150 for yes? ...more?

[Allure]

Let's go IRAN!

[hels]

Might not happen this year. There has been obvious escalation but there needs to be a higher level of perceived threat to the US.

Israel may go in on their own without forewarning. Your best bet is to take Israel at +300 or something. The US government will basically have to launch a larger smear campaign to make the people that Iran is going to use their nukes.

[Emily_Haines]

never going to happen

US is a paper tiger all talk and no action

all these rouge nations they hate (North Korea, India, Pakistan) all developed nukes and they couldn't do jack shit about it

[rkelly110]

+150 sounds good to me.

Just like NK, we won't do anything unless we are fired upon.

[sickler]

+150 sounds good to me.

Just like NK, we won't do anything unless we are fired upon.

But what about Israel? They knocked out Iraq's reactor

[Iced]

How would the US react if Iran was assassinating scientists at government agencies like the DoD and universities like MIT?

[Iced]

Here's some serious input from an article today: http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinio...TkQ_story.html

"Panetta believes there is strong likelihood that Israel will strike Iran in April, May or June — before Iran enters what Israelis described as a “zone of immunity” to commence building a nuclear bomb. Very soon, the Israelis fear, the Iranians will have enough enriched uranium in deep underground facilities to make a weapon — and only the U.S. could then stop them militarily."

ETA: I think there is a >50% chance a war begins against Iran in 2012. Probably about 65%.

[rkelly110]

But what about Israel? They knocked out Iraq's reactor

I thought he meant the US only. If that's the case he already won.

[d2bets]

Intrade has this exact prop and the last trade was at 29.5% (bid/ask is 22.2/29.2) Fair line is maybe +250. You're getting ripped of at +150.

[eidolon]

we are in an election year...won't happen. I'll take next year before the end of July

[byronbb]

intrade.com

[Sam Odom]

'October Surprise'

[dante1]

According to reports Iran has taken many precautions you do know they are not stupid right. They realize Israel has done this before. First many of the very sensitive sites are deep underground. Second they are greatly dispersed over a very large country and their security has been upgraded. Add to this the fact that they are super paranoid to begin with. This will not be an easy assignment for the Israelis. Doesn't mean they won't try but when they do they will be prepared, they never do anything half ass.

[Sam Odom]

1st things you do... knockout communications & power. There are high tech means

then stealth bombers go in and drop special deep burrowing heavy bombs and get out undetected

[Sam Odom]

from Nov 2011

Pentagon officials are speaking publicly about the military's new 30,000-pound massive ordnance penetrator, or MOP, known now as the biggest "bunker-busting bomb" in the world.

The Air Force has already received an undisclosed number of these bombs from Boeing, all designed to fit exclusively with the B-2 and B-52 bombers.

[Grits n' Gravy]

As long as Emily is strapped to a bomb I am all for it.

[Hurls]

never going to happen

US is a paper tiger all talk and no action

all these rouge nations they hate (North Korea, India, Pakistan) all developed nukes and they couldn't do jack shit about it

what country are you from? emo girl

[Sam Odom]

As long as Emily is strapped to a bomb I am all for it.

(not LOL @ Emily) but the 1st picture that popped into my mind


.

[dante1]

from Nov 2011 Pentagon officials are speaking publicly about the military's new 30,000-pound massive ordnance penetrator, or MOP, known now as the biggest "bunker-busting bomb" in the world. The Air Force has already received an undisclosed number of these bombs from Boeing, all designed to fit exclusively with the B-2 and B-52 bombers.

That is great, however you need to know where the facilities are before any weapon will be effective. If I was in charge in Iran I would have 50 fake sites with all the workings of a real site. And those guys are much sharper than I am so I am sure they have thought about this for a while. Don't get me wrong please I am not cheering for Iran and if I had to bet my money would be on Israel but this will not be easy.

[Emily_Haines]

from Nov 2011

Pentagon officials are speaking publicly about the military's new 30,000-pound massive ordnance penetrator, or MOP, known now as the biggest "bunker-busting bomb" in the world.

The Air Force has already received an undisclosed number of these bombs from Boeing, all designed to fit exclusively with the B-2 and B-52 bombers.

Those things are just a waste. Iran has their facilities buried deep inside mountains. You could drop your biggest nuke right on top of it and it wont even knock over a glass of water.

[sickler]

According to reports Iran has taken many precautions you do know they are not stupid right. They realize Israel has done this before. First many of the very sensitive sites are deep underground. Second they are greatly dispersed over a very large country and their security has been upgraded. Add to this the fact that they are super paranoid to begin with. This will not be an easy assignment for the Israelis. Doesn't mean they won't try but when they do they will be prepared, they never do anything half ass.

Right but tactical nukes will take care of that.

[SportsPedagogy]

Those things are just a waste. Iran has their facilities buried deep inside mountains. You could drop your biggest nuke right on top of it and it wont even knock over a glass of water.

You been there ? or are you just taking irans word for it ? You people swear you are sharps, it is hilarious. seriously though, move to a different country please and thank you. (Even though your from Canada but you swear you have dual citizenship)

[Walter Abrams Jr]

Those things are just a waste. Iran has their facilities buried deep inside mountains. You could drop your biggest nuke right on top of it and it wont even knock over a glass of water.

I guess you've never seen the hole left at hiroshima. I believe its still there to this day. That was years ago. I cant even imagine what the US has up their sleeve now in regards to weapons.

[SportsPedagogy]

I guess you've never seen the hole left at hiroshima. I believe its still there to this day. That was years ago. I cant even imagine what the US has up their sleeve now in regards to weapons.

What ? Emily knows everything ! How dare you challenge what he says. We sheeple need to bow down at this enlightened person and thank him for taking time out of his VERY BUSY DAY to post on this site and make us well aware of how horrible we have it in the united states! Things are so horrible, but unlike that cruise ship captain, Emily is a real man and he is going to stay here and go down with the ship. Everybody start staying up and get used to being exhausted, it is going to be some long days in the Chinese sweat shops !

[Emily_Haines]

What ? Emily knows everything ! How dare you challenge what he says. We sheeple need to bow down at this enlightened person and thank him for taking time out of his VERY BUSY DAY to post on this site and make us well aware of how horrible we have it in the united states! Things are so horrible, but unlike that cruise ship captain, Emily is a real man and he is going to stay here and go down with the ship. Everybody start staying up and get used to being exhausted, it is going to be some long days in the Chinese sweat shops !

They been talking about how Iran is just one year away from making a nuke for the last ten years. If they were so close to a nuke 10 years ago you would have thought that they would have done something by now, but they haven't. USA just talking out their ass in regards to Iran as usual. Plus US only likes to go to war against cup cakes. With China and Russia saying they will get involved and Iran's military strength the chances of the USA starting something are a million to one. In all honesty if the USA knows whats best they will stick to their cowardly sanctions with the rest of the Euro pussies.

[Grits n' Gravy]

You been there ? or are you just taking irans word for it ? You people swear you are sharps, it is hilarious. seriously though, move to a different country please and thank you. (Even though your from Canada but you swear you have dual citizenship)

Emily hasn't been right about a prediction in his entire life. Still waiting for him to move out of the country.

[Emily_Haines]

Emily hasn't been right about a prediction in his entire life. Still waiting for him to move out of the country.

yep, that's why heritage, sia, bodog, etc all kicked me out because i'm so poor at predicting outcomes. When it comes to US foreign policy I am hands down the expert in this forum.

[The Kraken]

Emily is Iranian-American, just found this out

[jerry]

It's extremely important to the Chinese that Iran does not become a puppet state of the US. China has leverage that they can use. They're holding about a 900 billion in US debt. If they start dumping it, the US dollar will plunge.

China will then be holding worthless US dollars, but if they feel it's in their national interest, they may do it. Everybody has their red line.

[flyingillini]

Israel will never be defeated.

[onetrickpony]

hope china and russia protect iran

[Sam Odom]

Very Interesting Read On This Topic

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/is-israel-preparing-to-attack-iran/2012/02/02/gIQANjfTkQ_print.html

[FourLengthsClear]

I don't see it happening personally.

Israel can't be seen to be acting unilaterally without setting off a wider conflict and the issue is too politically sensitive in the US in an election year. The nuclear genie is already out of the bottle as far as the Islamic world is concerned anyway. Notwithstanding the Sunni/Shia thing proliferation stemming from Pakistan is a sure thing, right?

[john230]

Israel will never be defeated.

Israel is a beacon of freedom surrounded by a stronghold of tyranny. Benjamin Netanyahu is one tough customer, and he will do everything in his power to stop the Iranian fanatics from getting the big Bomb.