Let's talk Arizona +7 (+265ml) vs. Cal

RyanLeafOfBets · 02-02-12, 09:19 AM

line 7 at some books, 7.5 at others. Cal's 14-0 at home, but have had some close games.

This is tough...

stevek173 · 02-02-12, 09:58 AM

If Cal has size screw it. Zona has none and they get hammered by teams with size.

ChalkyDog · 02-02-12, 10:23 AM

Cal doesn't posses the size to dominate Arizona.

Cal's best player was in a walking boot all week.

Arizona is 5 pt's away from being in 1st place of the conference.

Arizona plays close games - this shouldn't be much different. Sean Miller teams are consistent, the only thing that makes this team inconsistent is whether the team they face has size - Cal doesn't.

I'm an Arizona homer - that has been on the other side this season in both football and basketball probably more often than not, because I know this team. I was on Arizona +7 as soon as the line was released.

Iwinyourmoney · 02-02-12, 10:30 AM

I like it chalky. ML worth a shot? At +290 now

andrewh81 · 02-02-12, 10:33 AM

Arizona struggles for offense at times. I took them against Washington and it was like watching paint dry. Solomon Hill is good, but I think some of their guards are overrated, Jesse Perry isn't that great either. 7 is a lot, but if I had to pick I would probably take Cal. Ultimately, I will stay away. I just haven't seen a dominating game from Arizona. They didn't look good against UCLA at UCLA, they smoked USC at USC, but who doesn't.

ChalkyDog · 02-02-12, 10:45 AM

Originally posted by Iwinyourmoney

I like it chalky. ML worth a shot? At +290 now

It's a tough call, because I don't know what you think is worthy of a money line play.

I will tell you my opinion is that Arizona CAN win this game, but probably wont. If Crabbe is really out or limited, then yes - Cal doesn't have anything to replace that kid, I doubt many teams in the country does.

I am not on the money line, but if you are the type of person that think throwing a half unit on a +290 chance of hitting - then by all means, because this is a winnable game for Arizona, and this is in the most inconsistent conference in the nation.

Just for more info, what was to be Arizona's best player Kevin Parrom, who was not 100% all season due to a gunshot wound, is out with a broken foot this game. He was finally turning the corner in the UW game so that is a big loss to Arizona talent wise, depth wise, and from a morale stand point.

Also, Arizona's starting point guard is a volatile Josiah Turner, who has as much raw talent as anyone in the nation, and probably could successfully be drafted right now, is returning "home" to the bay area for the first time in his collegiate career. Many times that has been a distraction in the past for collegiate athletes, other times it has fueled break out performances. If JT has a break out performance, this game is over before it started, if he is distracted - same.

Also, FWIW, this game last year was a double maybe triple OT thriller - with none of the current Arizona players scoring in double digits in that game.

BTW, I just threw another few bucks on Arizona +7.5 at bookmaker.

ChalkyDog · 02-02-12, 10:48 AM

Originally posted by andrewh81

Arizona struggles for offense at times. I took them against Washington and it was like watching paint dry. Solomon Hill is good, but I think some of their guards are overrated, Jesse Perry isn't that great either. 7 is a lot, but if I had to pick I would probably take Cal. Ultimately, I will stay away. I just haven't seen a dominating game from Arizona. They didn't look good against UCLA at UCLA, they smoked USC at USC, but who doesn't.

It's the nature of the offense combined with the fact that they lost their best player at halftime. Remember they were up 3, looking like the much better team going into halftime, even with double the turnover margin and an inability to score on fast breaks for whatever reason.

That offense is also another reason why teams usually won't make the game a blow out against Arizona unless the opponent has an obvious matchup advantage, i.e. UCLA.

Plus573 · 02-02-12, 11:28 AM

Originally posted by ChalkyDog

It's a tough call, because I don't know what you think is worthy of a money line play.

I will tell you my opinion is that Arizona CAN win this game, but probably wont. If Crabbe is really out or limited, then yes - Cal doesn't have anything to replace that kid, I doubt many teams in the country does.

I am not on the money line, but if you are the type of person that think throwing a half unit on a +290 chance of hitting - then by all means, because this is a winnable game for Arizona, and this is in the most inconsistent conference in the nation.

Just for more info, what was to be Arizona's best player Kevin Parrom, who was not 100% all season due to a gunshot wound, is out with a broken foot this game. He was finally turning the corner in the UW game so that is a big loss to Arizona talent wise, depth wise, and from a morale stand point.

Also, Arizona's starting point guard is a volatile Josiah Turner, who has as much raw talent as anyone in the nation, and probably could successfully be drafted right now, is returning "home" to the bay area for the first time in his collegiate career. Many times that has been a distraction in the past for collegiate athletes, other times it has fueled break out performances. If JT has a break out performance, this game is over before it started, if he is distracted - same.

Also, FWIW, this game last year was a double maybe triple OT thriller - with none of the current Arizona players scoring in double digits in that game.

BTW, I just threw another few bucks on Arizona +7.5 at bookmaker.

Agreed with this. A few more points I wanted to add.

Downside - Kevin Parrom is out of this game, and the rest of the season. He hasn't been great every game but he has been getting better and gives the team heart. This will hurt.

Upside - Turner has been developing more every game. I honestly think we WILL see him break out against Cal. This is going to be an exciting game for him, huge potential here. I hunk Hill now recognizes he is the leader of the team, hopefully this will lead to more cohesion. Finally, Miller has not been playing KReal, best thing that can happen for Arizona. I believe when he is on the floor, Arizona is like -80 points for the season. Looks like KReal is getting Zaned.

One thing to remember is that Arizona wasn't far behind where it is now last season. They had 2 more wins. Right around this time, DWill started to take over. There were problems of cohesion that Zona has had all season last year too. Obviously this team doesn't have anyone close to DWill anymore, and are not nearly as good, however don't rule out the potential of growth at this point in the season.

I will be on the +7 and a small play on the ML. BOL

smoke a bowl · 02-02-12, 12:35 PM

I make Cal -14.

Iwinyourmoney · 02-02-12, 12:37 PM

ML up to 295.

Maybe +8, 310 by tip?

BIGDAY · 02-02-12, 12:40 PM

Yep, going to wait this line out. Might be a great tilt play as a late game.

cant call it · 02-02-12, 01:29 PM

I wanted to pound it until I saw this thread. Must mean cal is gonna win by 10

jeffdane · 02-02-12, 01:39 PM

its going to +8 any minute now. IMO thats not good considering the action is split. i doubt it goes any higher than 8.

ill play the moneyline in a longshot parlay cause there is a chance Arizona gets the win but im not playing the spread.

BIGDAY · 02-02-12, 09:28 PM

Moved to +8

Might POUND.

t-wizzle · 02-02-12, 09:35 PM

I'm on Cal here for 3 units. I see them winning this game by 10 or so.

stevek173 · 02-02-12, 09:59 PM

No money on it here but I do like the informative posts.

Good luck all.

Iwinyourmoney · 02-03-12, 12:11 AM

Video coming

No coincidences · 02-03-12, 12:13 AM

I suppose you capped Arizona making 14 of its last 16 shots in the half and scoring 36 points in the last 10 minutes?

The Kraken · 02-03-12, 12:14 AM

Iwin capping

Ron29301 · 02-03-12, 12:20 AM

Arizona is showing out tonight. I did look at this thread before taking that ML on Arizona.

Plus573 · 02-03-12, 12:37 AM

Still a lot of time left, hopefully they can pull it out.

Ron29301 · 02-03-12, 12:44 AM

Originally posted by Plus573

Still a lot of time left, hopefully they can pull it out.

I doubt it.

Iwinyourmoney · 02-03-12, 12:59 AM

ChalkyDog · 02-03-12, 01:15 AM

YEAH BOIIIIIIIII!!!

Feels good to make money on your team!

Great bet guys, took a small money line at +305....

Plus573 · 02-03-12, 01:15 AM

Game had me sweating, glad they pulled it out, Spread and ML cashed.

Plus573 · 02-03-12, 01:16 AM

Originally posted by ChalkyDog

YEAH BOIIIIIIIII!!!

Feels good to make money on your team!

Great bet guys, took a small money line at +305....

Yeah, feels good to be a Zona fan tonight, hasn't happened that often this year.

aggieshawn · 02-03-12, 01:16 AM

Thanks IWin.

I could your feel your confidence in this pick. Put my whole account on it. 10 seconds left.
No ML though. The key might have been you and Mugs drinking and cheering too.

Ron29301 · 02-03-12, 01:17 AM

RyanLeafOfBets · 02-03-12, 01:17 AM

Arizona/Cal just screwed me hard on 2h over for a push. Had it at 73. What a bunch of garbage.

No coincidences · 02-03-12, 01:19 AM

Originally posted by RyanLeafOfBets

Arizona/Cal just screwed me hard on 2h over for a push. Had it at 73. What a bunch of garbage.

The +7.5 just happened to cash by half a point as well.

Another "sharp" Pac-12 line.

RonPaul2008 · 02-03-12, 01:21 AM

+7.5

Iwinyourmoney · 02-03-12, 01:27 AM

Plus573 · 02-03-12, 01:28 AM

Originally posted by Iwinyourmoney

kmarinouofm · 02-03-12, 01:31 AM

U staying at the flamingo ?