SuperBowl Prop you should play...

[iifold]

STRAIGHT BET
[86035] TOTAL o2-110
(TOT RECEPTIONS-JAKE BALLARD vrs TOT RECEPTIONS-JAKE BALLARD)


"Jake Ballard's balky knee feels "better than it has in a while."
"I should be pretty close to 100 percent by the game," said Ballard. Though the first-year starter played a major role in the Week 9 victory over the Pats, he's totaled just three catches for 33 yards in three playoff games. Ballard put in a full practice on Thursday, running and cutting at full speed. Jan 26 - 7:39 PM"


Why you should play this...

-He had 4 catches for 67 yards and a TD vs. the Pats earlier in the year...
-He has been hurt, which lead to low production, which is why you get this great line...
-He should be able to spend a lot more time running routes vs. the Pats thanks to their poor pass rush (He spent a lot of time chipping and pass blocking vs. the Niners)
-You know the Giants will have to put up points, this is not going to be game where they will be up 17 at half and be able to sit on a lead or abandon the passing game...
-Cruz and Nicks will attract so much attention, it will lead to a bunch of opportunities where Manning will just dump it off to his 3rd or 4th option...


I would play this with confidence...

Good Luck

[ndntarget]

I am on the giants getting the ball first. Don't see how it could lose. Pats win coin toss and will choose to kick off. Giants win coin toss they will choose to receive.

[firehoyt]

NFC has won 14 or 15 straight coin tosses

[SparJMU]

iifold, the Ballard play is a very very good one. I typically don't share plays of this strength on the forums, but I maxed out my online limits on this bet as soon as the line came out, so I at this point I don't mind if others jump on board and move the line a little in my favor.

Oh and you forgot to mention probably the most important statistic, the Patriots are 29th in the league in DVOA against opposing Tight Ends.

As far as I can tell, this is the strongest prop on the board right now.

[letsgo]

Don't see it on 5dimes yet.

[Monitor-Tan]

which book you playing at foldie

[Marigold HD]

You can't bet much on these props anymore. They all have low limits. But they're fun to play.

[SparJMU]

I got $500 on catches and $500 on yards on Sportsbook. 5Dimes is always so slow to release their props.

[No coincidences]

What people don't take the time to realize is that this play cashes at the exact same amount as the side in the game. You don't get a 10x bonus for playing the side, which to me is a total toss-up. I don't get why gamblers get caught up in having to choose and then go big on the Super Bowl. Just tail iifold for a small prop like this and don't sweat out the end result of the game itself.

[odog11]

I am on the giants getting the ball first. Don't see how it could lose. Pats win coin toss and will choose to kick off. Giants win coin toss they will choose to receive.

Is this clear about the Giants? Patriots I agree would be surprising if they opted to get the ball first, but then again you never know with Bill. If the Giants are really likely to choose to receive this does seem like a no brainer.

[SparJMU]

iifold, any other props catch your eye? I think Welker over 6.5 is worth a very solid look. Especially if Gronkowski is not 100%, or if they have to leave TEs to block more often than they would like.

[QuangX]

Do they have this prop in Vegas?

[millflavor]

giants have been keeping ballard back for blocking lately and using beckham more downfield... i'd stay away from this prop... giant's tight ends have been totally unpredictable

[seaborneq]

I am on the giants getting the ball first. Don't see how it could lose. Pats win coin toss and will choose to kick off. Giants win coin toss they will choose to receive.

Sounds too easy. Is this a trend or been talking to coughlin and belichick?

[SparJMU]

This prop has not had the line movement I expected. iifold let's try to keep an eye on health and anything else we can read about Giants TEs leading up to the game.

[5mike5]

way way better props that are +EV

[5mike5]

Don't see it on 5dimes yet.

wont be up there til closer to gameday

[Grits n' Gravy]

Liked this as well but waiting on his health status. Pascoe has become the safety net for Eli of late. Good luck.

[SparJMU]

way way better props that are +EV

Like what?

[SparJMU]

Ballard O 25 yards starting to get the line movement we want to see.

[Monte]

503 Over 2.5 Receptions +153
505 Over 29.5 Receiving Yards +136

1k limits at Pinny btw...so are these good plays still?

[SparJMU]

Personally I think there is still a ton of value. When healthy this guy is good for 3 catches a game, and as explained above the Pats are 29th in the league against opposing TEs. I am worried I am getting in too far over my head, but I am maxing out my other accounts on the 2.5 line.

[antkong91]

Jake Ballard

Jake Ballard was my hero growing up

[zoo youk]

giants have been keeping ballard back for blocking lately and using beckham more downfield... i'd stay away from this prop... giant's tight ends have been totally unpredictable

have to say I was very close to pulling the trigger on this bet before I ever even saw this thread but backed off just cause of this exact reason posted above.

Beckum is finally healthy and he is a great down field threat. if anyone remembers when he played for Wisconsin he was one of the most insane athletic best TEs in the Nation.

just could never stay healthy. now at full strength.

[SparJMU]

have to say I was very close to pulling the trigger on this bet before I ever even saw this thread but backed off just cause of this exact reason posted above.

Beckum is finally healthy and he is a great down field threat. if anyone remembers when he played for Wisconsin he was one of the most insane athletic best TEs in the Nation.

just could never stay healthy. now at full strength.

Beckum, seriously? Ballard is the clear cut started when both are healthy. The only factor in whether or not Ballard gets over 2 catches is if Ballard himself is 100%. Beckum's health is completely meaningless.

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

I am on the giants getting the ball first. Don't see how it could lose. Pats win coin toss and will choose to kick off. Giants win coin toss they will choose to receive.

How do you know the Pats will kick it away if they win the coin flip? Same could be said about the Giants, how do you know they want the ball first?

[letsgo]

How do you know the Pats will kick it away if they win the coin flip? Same could be said about the Giants, how do you know they want the ball first?

I believe Giants got the ball 1st every time they had the choice and Patriots kicked off half the time this season.

[Not-A-Kid]

I like Ochocinco to have at least one catch, Yes (-105). Pats released Tiquan Underwood this week so they could promote a DE from the PS. Belichick must have some role in mind for Ochocinco or they'd have released him instead as Underwood played ST and had some value to NE in that regard. NE is obviously going to throw it frequently and all he needs to do is get it thrown his way on a 5 yd hitch for this prop to hit. Gut feeling.

[NYSportsGuy210]

Here are some interesting prop bets to consider:

(1) (Not counting half time) Who will be shown more live during the game?

Peyton Manning (-120) or Robert Kraft (-120)

(2) Who Will U.S. President Barack Obama Pick to Win the Superbowl?

NY Giants (-135) or NE Patriots (-105)

(3) How many times will NBC show the David Tyree catch during the game live?

Under 1.5 (-190) or OVER 1.5 (+150)

(4) Will the Dow Jones open up or down the Monday (day after the Superbowl)?

Up ( -120) or Down (-120)

[letsgo]

Here are some interesting prop bets to consider:

(1) (Not counting half time) Who will be shown more live during the game?

Peyton Manning (-120) or Robert Kraft (-120)

(2) Who Will U.S. President Barack Obama Pick to Win the Superbowl?

NY Giants (-135) or NE Patriots (-105)

(3) How many times will NBC show the David Tyree catch during the game live?

Under 1.5 (-190) or OVER 1.5 (+150)

(4) Will the Dow Jones open up or down the Monday (day after the Superbowl)?

Up ( -120) or Down (-120)

I would pound that last one up, here it is on 5 dimes.

Sun 2/5 995 Dow Jones UP Monday after Super Bowl -140
11:59PM 996 Dow Jones DOWN Monday after Super Bowl +100

[NYSportsGuy210]

I would pound that last one up, here it is on 5 dimes.

Sun 2/5 995 Dow Jones UP Monday after Super Bowl -140
11:59PM 996 Dow Jones DOWN Monday after Super Bowl +100

Why?

[ToPHeR]

Why?

Lots of money spent and doesn't reflect til day after cause markets closed on Sun

[yisman]

Question is whether Ochocinco will even be on the field. I guess if he's active he'll get at least a few plays.

[letsgo]

Why?

I think Market goes up tomorrow, good Jobs report on Friday, I think most of the reports that can influence the market negatively come later in the week.

[NYSportsGuy210]

I think Market goes up tomorrow, good Jobs report on Friday, I think most of the reports that can influence the market negatively come later in the week.

Yea but the markets already went up on Friday based on the jobs report. Watch for any new news from Europe today or the Asian markets to see how the DJIA opens tomorrow.

I personally like Obama to pick the NY Giants to win....and small lean on Robert Kraftto be shown more times than Peyton Manning in the game.