Dear John.... Ask the expert: John Ryan's Mail Box

[John Ryan]

Dear John,

Will you also answer fx trading related questions in this thread?

The currency that is massively over bought is the YEN. the Euro/Yen traded through parity and bottomed with 97 handles. Now trading at 101.30ish IF and it is a BIG IF, the Greek debt plan could grab hold and trickle through the ECU, the this would be an extraordinary opportunity BUY EURO/YEN.

Just one of many FOREX thoughts and they are opinions ONLY!

[John Ryan]

Thanks for making the thread John

You bet!

[John Ryan]

Yes, Thank you very much John for this!

Thanks. You and the other posters from the threads contributed heavily to this new idea. So, thanks for the extra work.. kidding of course. This will be good!

[John Ryan]

John in these times, do you think there are ways for rec gamblers to uitlize some of the originally wong teaser principles?

HATE teasers, but once in a while, when I get a bit too bold with my plays, I will place one. I highly recommend that Teasers be avoided.

[John Ryan]

Why would you leave the currency desk at a bank/boutique shop to become a sports bettor instead of just retiring on fat bonuses?

well, to be short with this answer. In one word cancer. Honestly, my cancer trek was one of the single best things to ever have happened to me other than the birth of my children of course. But, I think you get the point.

I was diagnosed with a rare blood cancer called Multiple Myeloma at a young age in December 2000. yes, right before Christmas. I was told that I had about 6 months to live. Had a 5 and 3 year old. Realized I may never even see my daughter go to Kindergarten. But, I made it through, and statistically I am now one of the longest living survivors to date at Dana Farber, which is Harvard Med. I went through some unreal doses of chemo and a guantlet of other drugs to have a chance at a bone marrow transplant. It worked and not to sound corny at all, but it was my faith and belief that I was going to make it through no matter what the stats said. I was a two sport All-American and that intense training, discipline, and commitment also served me well during this time. So, after the bone marrow transplant that took place at Johns Hopkins, I realized that chasing the almighty buck and not being satisfied making seven figures with 'fat bonuses' was not the way I was going to live the rest of my life. I am not saying either, that people, who choose that path are wrong. It was the best choice for me, to completely change path and start giving back. I coach/founded a youth baseball program that plays on a national level, got heavily involved with Blood Cancer Advocacy work in Congress (Washington DC) to bring about awareness and education of Multiple Myeloma in conjunction with the Multiple Myeloma Research Foundation (MMRF). Geraldine Ferraro and Ted Kennedy, and Texas Senator Kay Bailey Hutchingson were three of the biggest and most powerful supporters of our efforts and in 2006, Congress passed a bill granting 375 million dollars for the research of this blood disease. So, you can see how cancer was actually a gift for me and is one of the reasons I started the sports handicapping business. To show people that there is an honest and methodical disciplined way to have a blast wagering on sporting events and not have it rule your life either.

So, Wall Street was kind to me. I travel through there on my way to Boston several times a year and remember where I once lived - two blocks from the Twin Towers - but that is another story for another time. I was NOT there, but since I worked in them and the World Financial Center, I lost a lot of friends and colleagues just like so many of you must have endured as well. So, I spend time with cancer patients, especially the children, who are the strongest most courageous people in this world - and I love sports and predicting outcomes - just like I would riding the the Euro/Yen trade. Hope this has helped tell you just a little about who I am an why i am doing this. Don't forget too, that I get a lot of benefit out of these threads as well. It is a great way to exchange ideas and as Gorden Gekko once said in the movie Wall Street, "The most powerful commodity I know is information wouldn't you agree?"

[FourLengthsClear]

I'll start with this one, but I intend to get to everyone as time permits tonight and into Thursday. A neural network simulator that I built for the purpose of currency trading does not assign specific values to teams or that a line is off by a specific amount. Generally, I get graded plays that have a high probability of exceeding the point spread by 7 points or more. So, over the years, I often see a turnover go against play and think that ok. 'EVEN' now. or if it is my favor the odds go up exponentially that I have the right side. That is a minor example and one that only is noticed after the play is made. The simulator goes through 15 years of 'box score' data and essentially learns from that data and then applies it to the current conditions of the game overall and of course the specific teams. Back-propagation is the most commonly used technique for what many call data mining. My mode will adjust to the evolution of the season and the game. So, for example, it has increased it's weighting on passing more than running overall in the NFL. Yet, for teams like philadelphia, Houston, and Denver it adjust counter to that, but not near enough to effect the overall change in the game we saw this season. We will get into some math and show some examples. So, to answer the question, it is not that easy to simply take two averages and add or subtract to get a value play. And by the way, Peter Loshak and I abhor the word VALUE when used in sports handicapping. Remember, there is so-called value in a play because they have vastly under performed public expectations or they are playing a team that is on a roll and improving with each passing week. Enough for now. But, thanks for all the questions.

What advantage(s) do you see in a neural network approach compared to a statistical regression? Is it primarily an issue of 'dimensionality'?

As a rough percentage how many NFL games are you getting with a "high probability" of exceeding the market spread by 7 points or more?

[mrmarket]

well, to be short with this answer. In one word cancer. Honestly, my cancer trek was one of the single best things to ever have happened to me other than the birth of my children of course. But, I think you get the point.

I was diagnosed with a rare blood cancer called Multiple Myeloma at a young age in December 2000. yes, right before Christmas. I was told that I had about 6 months to live. Had a 5 and 3 year old. Realized I may never even see my daughter go to Kindergarten. But, I made it through, and statistically I am now one of the longest living survivors to date at Dana Farber, which is Harvard Med. I went through some unreal doses of chemo and a guantlet of other drugs to have a chance at a bone marrow transplant. It worked and not to sound corny at all, but it was my faith and belief that I was going to make it through no matter what the stats said. I was a two sport All-American and that intense training, discipline, and commitment also served me well during this time. So, after the bone marrow transplant that took place at Johns Hopkins, I realized that chasing the almighty buck and not being satisfied making seven figures with 'fat bonuses' was not the way I was going to live the rest of my life. I am not saying either, that people, who choose that path are wrong. It was the best choice for me, to completely change path and start giving back. I coach/founded a youth baseball program that plays on a national level, got heavily involved with Blood Cancer Advocacy work in Congress (Washington DC) to bring about awareness and education of Multiple Myeloma in conjunction with the Multiple Myeloma Research Foundation (MMRF). Geraldine Ferraro and Ted Kennedy, and Texas Senator Kay Bailey Hutchingson were three of the biggest and most powerful supporters of our efforts and in 2006, Congress passed a bill granting 375 million dollars for the research of this blood disease. So, you can see how cancer was actually a gift for me and is one of the reasons I started the sports handicapping business. To show people that there is an honest and methodical disciplined way to have a blast wagering on sporting events and not have it rule your life either.

So, Wall Street was kind to me. I travel through there on my way to Boston several times a year and remember where I once lived - two blocks from the Twin Towers - but that is another story for another time. I was NOT there, but since I worked in them and the World Financial Center, I lost a lot of friends and colleagues just like so many of you must have endured as well. So, I spend time with cancer patients, especially the children, who are the strongest most courageous people in this world - and I love sports and predicting outcomes - just like I would riding the the Euro/Yen trade. Hope this has helped tell you just a little about who I am an why i am doing this. Don't forget too, that I get a lot of benefit out of these threads as well. It is a great way to exchange ideas and as Gorden Gekko once said in the movie Wall Street, "The most powerful commodity I know is information wouldn't you agree?"

John to be quite honest I had to resist the urge to pulverize you as another tout scammer when this thread was posted (I managed to be a bit snarky though). There are so many around that I've built up this reactive response to wretch in my mouth any time I see threads promoting picks or such. I still hold some reservations about your posts mainly - 75% win claim and wackoo titan 5x 20x bet sizing (do you label them as such as a marketing ploy or are they truly based some derivation of kelly?) That being said I can appreciate some of your approaches to capping football and have enjoyed the back and forth between you and that degenerate loshak throughout the season in the videos.

I also am empathetic in regards to your struggle with Cancer. My father lived 9 years with non hodgkins lymphoma before passing away (they gave him 4 months to live after being diagnosed). He went through 2 bone marrow transplants,4 bouts of chemotherapy and over 100 shots of radiation along with countless other tests,procedures and complications. Cancer is a hellish disease that I would not wish on anyone or their families. The fact that your force of will, good fortune and the aptitude of your doctors allowed to live through it is impressive and admiral.

I wish you and your family continued good health and happiness going forward

[John Ryan]

What advantage(s) do you see in a neural network approach compared to a statistical regression? Is it primarily an issue of 'dimensionality'?

As a rough percentage how many NFL games are you getting with a "high probability" of exceeding the market spread by 7 points or more?

I like the words Layers when using neural networks, but dimension is ok with me too. That is the reason why, that sports or human conduct is not a straight line regression. There are always modifications, twists, and turns, aberrations that are seen as such, but turn out to be the start of a new direction.

I did not count this year's tally yet, but about 100 to 120 games initially qualify, then I tear through the fundamentals to make certain they are SUPPORTIVE of the graded play.

[Dax]

Hey John,

What makes your Neural Network System stand out from the rest?

I don't mean any disrespect, but to me getting assistance from a "Simulator" program is actually limiting your human capability to catch any other factor that a machine will not be able to consider (even if you're adding from your 18 years of experience), it's still doing half the work for you.

It's like playing chess and letting the computer tell you which pieces you should move after analyzing your opponents play strategy, though this is helpful there are still things that the machine will not calculate or take note of, such as human emotion. Those are things you might miss being since you let the machine do half of your work for you.

And finally, there are maybe a few here that don't fully understand what it is that your Neural Network does... could you break that down for us please?

Again, No disrespect, I truly admire your new way to envision and approach life; many in this world need something profound to happen to them also, just so they can get a glimpse of what life really is all about.

Be Cool

[FourLengthsClear]

I like the words Layers when using neural networks, but dimension is ok with me too. That is the reason why, that sports or human conduct is not a straight line regression. There are always modifications, twists, and turns, aberrations that are seen as such, but turn out to be the start of a new direction.

I did not count this year's tally yet, but about 100 to 120 games initially qualify, then I tear through the fundamentals to make certain they are SUPPORTIVE of the graded play.

That is in the region of 40% of all NFL games played where your model is projecting a result 7 points or more from the market spread. If I leave aside that you then review the fundamentals, your ANN suggests that these games should be hitting a phenomenal rate (around 65% for a 7 point differential that misses key numbers as a worst case).

On the assumption that these games don't actually hit at close to that rate, doesn't that suggest a fundamental problem?

Broadly speaking, if my model is producing results more than 3-4% (1-2 points generally) away from the market with any consistency, I am not only questioning it, I am looking at Plan B on the basis that my method is flawed.

Notwithstanding your MO maybe very different to mine and the majority of other modellers, I am struggling to grasp how second guessing your ANNs projected results could be productive.

Thanks in advance for any insight.

[John Ryan]

That is in the region of 40% of all NFL games played where your model is projecting a result 7 points or more from the market spread. If I leave aside that you then review the fundamentals, your ANN suggests that these games should be hitting a phenomenal rate (around 65% for a 7 point differential that misses key numbers as a worst case).

On the assumption that these games don't actually hit at close to that rate, doesn't that suggest a fundamental problem?

Broadly speaking, if my model is producing results more than 3-4% (1-2 points generally) away from the market with any consistency, I am not only questioning it, I am looking at Plan B on the basis that my method is flawed.

Notwithstanding your MO maybe very different to mine and the majority of other modellers, I am struggling to grasp how second guessing your ANNs projected results could be productive.

Thanks in advance for any insight.

We can discuss this at great length over the next several weeks. Keep in mind, this is a simulated result based on probabilities. Not an exact science of specifically seven points. I only mentioned that to make it a very simple example. Keep in mind that you need to take the number of games multiplied by TWO because there are side and total opportunities on every game. So, there is about one in every four of a POTENTIAL opportunity. These projections are based on weightings and 15-years of data. Now, my study of the fundamentals is critical as well and MUST support the team projected to win ATS. if it does not, then the play can be eliminated from consideration after factoring injuries, matchups, recent team news, etc. Lastly, there is the subjective part that I bring to the 'game'. I believe I have a very strong knowledge of the game and having been a two-sport All-American also adds to my ability to pretty much know where the team is psychologically et. al. Now, this is NOT a BLACK BOX to picking winners, but it does help guide me substantially in the right direction toward finding winning plays.

[John Ryan]

I will be selecting a few questions and noting your screen names in the article that will be published tomorrow. So, again, make as many comments as you want, but please, just ONE question per poster. I think we are off to a positive start and the concept of modeling, AI science, etc. exchanging ideas and experiences will help us all.

[milwaukee mike]

John how do you avoid the negative feedback associated with sports betting as a coach and founder of a national youth baseball league?

As a season ticket holder/booster of Marquette I certainly couldn't go around posting under my real name or fishing for angles on college games.
The best advantage I or anyone else can get is inside information on amateur sports like college basketball, and it makes it quite a bit more difficult to get that information if you have a lot to lose.

If you're only using the same info that everyone else has access to, but using it in a slightly more intelligent fashion, that limits your risk but also seriously limits your potential. Even just using public info and not having contact with players/coaches I still wouldn't want my name being associated with youth sports AND illegal sports gambling. Even if you aren't betting the games I'm pretty sure your target customer is.

[Deol]

Why is your record keeping always wrong and misleading? Its almost like its deliberate, why?

[John Ryan]

ok. the first mailbag article is out. I appreciate all of the questions and hope that the information provided in this first article will geet us deeper into the discussions.

http://www.sbrforum.com/sports-betting/free-picks/john-ryan-answers-you-questions-a-23075/

[Barnes & Whine]

John, but could you please break down this total for me?! Im not patient enough and need to start loading up but I want your opinion on it so I can rate the wager. Let me know if my lean on the under is a good one!

B&W

[John Ryan]

John, but could you please break down this total for me?! Im not patient enough and need to start loading up but I want your opinion on it so I can rate the wager. Let me know if my lean on the under is a good one!

B&W

I have not even started looking at the total yet.. There are a lot fo unknowns - as in player status etc. Hang in there.... It will be worth the wait to NOT rush in a bet now. 7-1 ATS in the Super Bowls since 2001.. so I don't always have a release, but when I do it is for very solid reasons.

[jbizzle]

John, do you have any thoughts on series chase betting? For example, with baseball, there are betting systems that choose particular series match-ups and bet ML on the team predicted to no get swept in the series. So you take the ML on one team each game of the series until the team wins 1 series game. Essentially your betting that the team will win at least one game in the series. The obvious issue here is with money management, especially when the team you choose may have high juice for the ML. You also have to factor in money management and juice if say your team loses the first 3 games of a 4 game series. So by the fourth game, you are betting a tremendous amount to recoup all your previous 3 losers plus the initial unit amount desired to win. I believe this is one instance of finding creative betting options to gain an advantage. Are their any other similar concepts or approaches you have encountered where a strong profit opportunity may arise? Thanks!

[John Ryan]

John, do you have any thoughts on series chase betting? For example, with baseball, there are betting systems that choose particular series match-ups and bet ML on the team predicted to no get swept in the series. So you take the ML on one team each game of the series until the team wins 1 series game. Essentially your betting that the team will win at least one game in the series. The obvious issue here is with money management, especially when the team you choose may have high juice for the ML. You also have to factor in money management and juice if say your team loses the first 3 games of a 4 game series. So by the fourth game, you are betting a tremendous amount to recoup all your previous 3 losers plus the initial unit amount desired to win. I believe this is one instance of finding creative betting options to gain an advantage. Are their any other similar concepts or approaches you have encountered where a strong profit opportunity may arise? Thanks!

Yes, that can work... however, there is a system I follow that if two divisional opponents are playing one another adn the road team has already won the series with just one game remaining, then the sweep is the play, especially if the team winning the series is NOT the Host. So, if the road team wins the first two of a three-game series or wins the first three of a four-game series, the sweep has a high probability of occurring. So, your idea is a good one starting our with say 1% to 1.5% of your bankroll and being cognizance if it is a divisional series.

[John Ryan]

John how do you avoid the negative feedback associated with sports betting as a coach and founder of a national youth baseball league?

As a season ticket holder/booster of Marquette I certainly couldn't go around posting under my real name or fishing for angles on college games.
The best advantage I or anyone else can get is inside information on amateur sports like college basketball, and it makes it quite a bit more difficult to get that information if you have a lot to lose.

If you're only using the same info that everyone else has access to, but using it in a slightly more intelligent fashion, that limits your risk but also seriously limits your potential. Even just using public info and not having contact with players/coaches I still wouldn't want my name being associated with youth sports AND illegal sports gambling. Even if you aren't betting the games I'm pretty sure your target customer is.

what I am saying is that my playing experiences and knowledge of the games is vast and I use that to study matchups - like Ron Jaworski does on ESPN. My library includes books on the West Coast offense, defensive schemes, and dozens of others that I have read and studied over the years. Plus, I have studied the psychology and how 'herd' mentality works and how 'contrarian' analysis works. From the days of the Holland Tulips bubble to 1998-2000 NASADAQ Internet bubbles, those types of trends and patterns in human behavior repeat.. and on a much smaller scale they repeat in sports and how people expect outcomes to be 100% probabilities, which many times turn out to be completely wrong. That is where my knowledge of the game comes from.

[jbizzle]

Yes, that can work... however, there is a system I follow that if two divisional opponents are playing one another adn the road team has already won the series with just one game remaining, then the sweep is the play, especially if the team winning the series is NOT the Host. So, if the road team wins the first two of a three-game series or wins the first three of a four-game series, the sweep has a high probability of occurring. So, your idea is a good one starting our with say 1% to 1.5% of your bankroll and being cognizance if it is a divisional series.

Thanks for the insight, it's interesting to see sport match-ups from these types of angles.

-John would you recommend any books/research material for sports handicapping in general? Thanks

[John Ryan]

Here is Week 2 Thread for the mailbag. Thanks for a solid first week. I enjoyed it very much.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/1546613-ask-john-ryan-week-2-a.html

[FourLengthsClear]

Moreover, do not alter the amount per * unit after a significant winning streak. You may think you are re-balancing your ‘rules’, but in essence you are setting yourself for a greater and faster decline during a losing streak.

We all know what happens after a sustained winning streak. The greater the winning streak, the greater the probability exists that a period of net losses will occur. We never know when winning or losing streaks will occur, but we can control the amount we will consistently bet and that is why my methodology has worked

- John Ryan

I have tried to keep an open mind but with the above paragraphs as well as endorsing a chase system (or at least not clearly advising against it) , you have lost credibility in my eyes.

A model/ANN producing results 7 points off the market with any consistency is garbage and if you are primarily relying on your handicapping then said ANN is a red herring.

[john230]

Moreover, do not alter the amount per * unit after a significant winning streak. You may think you are re-balancing your ‘rules’, but in essence you are setting yourself for a greater and faster decline during a losing streak.

We all know what happens after a sustained winning streak. The greater the winning streak, the greater the probability exists that a period of net losses will occur. We never know when winning or losing streaks will occur, but we can control the amount we will consistently bet and that is why my methodology has worked

- John Ryan

I have tried to keep an open mind but with the above paragraphs as well as endorsing a chase system (or at least not clearly advising against it) , you have lost credibility in my eyes.

A model/ANN producing results 7 points off the market with any consistency is garbage and if you are primarily relying on your handicapping then said ANN is a red herring.

Four lenghts- Can you elaborate on your comments? I don't see how he is advocating a chase system. Maybe I do not have a good grasp of what a chase system is.

[FourLengthsClear]

Four lenghts- Can you elaborate on your comments? I don't see how he is advocating a chase system. Maybe I do have a good grasp of what a chase system is.

Post #54 in this thread.

[john230]

Post #54 in this thread.

Thanks. I understand your vantage point. I don't think the chase system is good idea.

[John Ryan]

Thanks. I understand your vantage point. I don't think the chase system is good idea.

Lets' address this in the Week 2 thread I just setup... first, posting like texting lose a lot of meaning and can be misunderstood completely at times. So, NO I don't like nor do I endorse the CHASE system. I can see how it would work for some. I can, but it is a recipe for disaster as I outlined in the system play involving TWO DIVISIONAL foes. Again, in MLB, the road team wins the first two games of a three game series OR wins the frist three games of a four game series, the probabilities are great for a sweep. That would go completely against a chase system for if you did bet on the home team, you would be down FOUR straight games. Hope this brings greater clarity. I always respect others methods and try not to just blurt out and say that is an asinine way to wager or invest or do anything. If someone finds it works, or has an opinion, then let's all respect that opinion and present our 'clashing' and contrasting views appropriately.

[john230]

Lets' address this in the Week 2 thread I just setup... first, posting like texting lose a lot of meaning and can be misunderstood completely at times. So, NO I don't like nor do I endorse the CHASE system. I can see how it would work for some. I can, but it is a recipe for disaster as I outlined in the system play involving TWO DIVISIONAL foes. Again, in MLB, the road team wins the first two games of a three game series OR wins the frist three games of a four game series, the probabilities are great for a sweep. That would go completely against a chase system for if you did bet on the home team, you would be down FOUR straight games. Hope this brings greater clarity. I always respect others methods and try not to just blurt out and say that is an asinine way to wager or invest or do anything. If someone finds it works, or has an opinion, then let's all respect that opinion and present our 'clashing' and contrasting views appropriately.

You seemed to insinuate in the thread(#54) that the Chase system could work. I am not as well versed about gambling systems as you, and now you have made yourself clear(You do not endorse them) That's all I was trying to infer.

[Landscaper]

Why is your record keeping always wrong and misleading? Its almost like its deliberate, why?

Great question

[John Ryan]

You seemed to insinuate in the thread(#54) that the Chase system could work. I am not as well versed about gambling systems as you, and now you have made yourself clear(You do not endorse them) That's all I was trying to infer.

I am smiling.. believe me.. These threads as do text messages and form of non-verbal, non face-to-face communication can sometimes add a measure of personal sensitivity to it....

I think any methodology can work and I respect someone, who has had success doing the chase system, or using a MACD (Moving average convergence divergence) trading system in the FOREX and markets. As I pointed out, it is dangerous, because teams can get swept. I would prefer waiting on the example that I gave and play the last game of a three or four-game series and benefit from the percentages favoring the sweep. Thanks for your contribution. This was good!

[wakiv]

hey John Whats you SB pick?

[QuangX]

Superbowl pick?