Some guy made a thread that he worked up a 30k balance at Sportsbetting.com and is worried about getting paid. Squares like bronxer and others come in and attack the poster for playing at B and C books. I believe these attackers are fools, and are just jealous guys are able to rack up balances like that at these books. It is not all luck.
Some quick math for you dummies. Sportsbetting.com regularly offers bonuses of at least 50% with a rollover of around 6x. If you send $10,000 for $5,000 your rollover will be $90,000. That's 82 bets of $1100 to win $1000 at -110. Assuming each bet you make has a 50% chance of winning, you expect to lose $50 each time you risk $1100. Since you have to make 82 bets, you expect your balance to fall from $15,000 to $10,900. You've made $900 but need to ask for a payout. So long as there is an 8.26% chance they pay you, then this whole procedure was +EV.
The chance of any C or better book of paying is a lot higher than 8.26%. They process hundreds of payouts a day and you only hear of complaints every few months, they tend to get resolved anyways, and are mostly the result of the player betting correlated parlays or circumventing limits etc.
The best part of all this is that these books have easy lines and getting bets that are better than 50% propositions (or even greater than 52.4%) is easy.
But of course you guys will keep posting up at Greek and 5Dimes who still force a roll on you and don't give you shit except a guaranteed payout -- but you guys are losing bettors so how often do you even request payouts anyways??
Guys like Deuce and bronxer and Brock should all be in these types of books.
- mathy
Some quick math for you dummies. Sportsbetting.com regularly offers bonuses of at least 50% with a rollover of around 6x. If you send $10,000 for $5,000 your rollover will be $90,000. That's 82 bets of $1100 to win $1000 at -110. Assuming each bet you make has a 50% chance of winning, you expect to lose $50 each time you risk $1100. Since you have to make 82 bets, you expect your balance to fall from $15,000 to $10,900. You've made $900 but need to ask for a payout. So long as there is an 8.26% chance they pay you, then this whole procedure was +EV.
The chance of any C or better book of paying is a lot higher than 8.26%. They process hundreds of payouts a day and you only hear of complaints every few months, they tend to get resolved anyways, and are mostly the result of the player betting correlated parlays or circumventing limits etc.
The best part of all this is that these books have easy lines and getting bets that are better than 50% propositions (or even greater than 52.4%) is easy.
But of course you guys will keep posting up at Greek and 5Dimes who still force a roll on you and don't give you shit except a guaranteed payout -- but you guys are losing bettors so how often do you even request payouts anyways??
Guys like Deuce and bronxer and Brock should all be in these types of books.
- mathy