SBR Casino special, 3/1 on Blackjack!!

[d2bets]

I post this every bj thread but vegas earns 10% on their blackjack tables.

Where did you get that from? 10% of every bet? I know there are a lot of stupid BJ bettors, but that seems high.

[d2bets]

That cannot be correct.

Even with the less player friendly rules that now pervade (6/5 for Blackjacks, dealer hits soft 17 etc.) the house edge based on optimal play is still 'only' just above 2%.

As ThaddeusB above suggests, and I fully agree, for the player to deviate from basic strategy enough to give the house a 10% profit would mean splitting 5s and hitting on 18 against the dealer's 6.

I've played enough BJ to see a lot of really bad stuff. Hitting 12-15 against a 4, staying on 13 against a picture, etc. But for every idiot who might give a 10% edge there are two that will play perfectly and almost entirely eliminate the house edge. My guess would be net house edge 3-4%.

[byronbb]

Where did you get that from? 10% of every bet? I know there are a lot of stupid BJ bettors, but that seems high.

Nevada gaming commission publishes monthly earnings every month. Part of it could be 6/5 BJ of course.

http://gaming.nv.gov/gaming_revenue_rpt.htm

PS: drunk gamblers are morons.

[Capybara]

I hate to be the dissenting voice here, but I thought we were all in basic agreement that online casinos are rigged (with SBR's no different). Do you really think you're going to see the average number of blackjacks come up? (5 out of 100 or whatever it is)... And even if you do, do you not think that you'll be getting an inordinate number of double-down situations, of which you'll be "surprisingly" losing almost all of them? No offense toward SBR, because I am obviously a big fan of the forum and even the casino, but why aren't more people attuned here to the strong possibility you're not going to get the expected value you'd get with an ACTUAL deck, or six or eight decks, of cards???

[FourLengthsClear]

Nevada gaming commission publishes monthly earnings every month. Part of it could be 6/5 BJ of course.

http://gaming.nv.gov/gaming_revenue_rpt.htm

PS: drunk gamblers are morons.

Thanks for that but those "Win Percent" cannot be house edge figures.

For baccarat (a game with no strategy) they show a Win Percent of 15% whereas the house edge is only 1.1%
Similarly roulette is shown with a win percent of 16%.

I would think that those "win percent" figures relate to total chips cashed out/cashed in.

[FourLengthsClear]

I hate to be the dissenting voice here, but I thought we were all in basic agreement that online casinos are rigged (with SBR's no different). Do you really think you're going to see the average number of blackjacks come up? (5 out of 100 or whatever it is)... And even if you do, do you not think that you'll be getting an inordinate number of double-down situations, of which you'll be "surprisingly" losing almost all of them? No offense toward SBR, because I am obviously a big fan of the forum and even the casino, but why aren't more people attuned here to the strong possibility you're not going to get the expected value you'd get with an ACTUAL deck, or six or eight decks, of cards???

I suspect because when these promos have been run before, the vast majority of players won. Can't tell of course whether they won, as a whole, as much as should be expected.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

I hate to be the dissenting voice here, but I thought we were all in basic agreement that online casinos are rigged (with SBR's no different).

Easily checked via basic statistics. There are a number of sites that do this.


In the various blackjack promos, I've made pretty much exactly as expected.

[milwaukee mike]

Nevada gaming commission publishes monthly earnings every month. Part of it could be 6/5 BJ of course.

http://gaming.nv.gov/gaming_revenue_rpt.htm

PS: drunk gamblers are morons.

fourlengthsclear is right, the hold % is not the same as the house edge

if 5 people each buy in for $100, 4 of them walk away empty handed and the other one walks away with $450 that is a 10% win % to the casino.

but that doesn't mean the total amount bet by all of them over that stretch of time was $500, it was probably about 10 times that.

[milwaukee mike]

I hate to be the dissenting voice here, but I thought we were all in basic agreement that online casinos are rigged (with SBR's no different). Do you really think you're going to see the average number of blackjacks come up? (5 out of 100 or whatever it is)... And even if you do, do you not think that you'll be getting an inordinate number of double-down situations, of which you'll be "surprisingly" losing almost all of them? No offense toward SBR, because I am obviously a big fan of the forum and even the casino, but why aren't more people attuned here to the strong possibility you're not going to get the expected value you'd get with an ACTUAL deck, or six or eight decks, of cards???

capy i have also run right around my expectations or better overall in these offers.
made about 1400 points (at 20 or 25 max) in the last one that ran exceptionally long if memory serves me correctly. i think nobody scored the whole first quarter?

[hawkwind]

NICE

[ThaddeusB]

I post this every bj thread but vegas earns 10% on their blackjack tables.

And as I posted last time, that is per buyin not per hand. If everyone stayed at the table forever, they would earn 100% but that doesn't mean the house edge would be 100%.

[ThaddeusB]

The max bet allowed will be 20 points.

This is a popular special but one we will not run very often. Depending on how fast a score comes this will be the last one before football starts again.

to a 9 month wait for another one. (But thanks again for this one - I actually thought it would never return).

[ThaddeusB]

I hate to be the dissenting voice here, but I thought we were all in basic agreement that online casinos are rigged (with SBR's no different). Do you really think you're going to see the average number of blackjacks come up? (5 out of 100 or whatever it is)... And even if you do, do you not think that you'll be getting an inordinate number of double-down situations, of which you'll be "surprisingly" losing almost all of them? No offense toward SBR, because I am obviously a big fan of the forum and even the casino, but why aren't more people attuned here to the strong possibility you're not going to get the expected value you'd get with an ACTUAL deck, or six or eight decks, of cards???

You thought wrongly. Many of us realize that what people think is "rigging" is actually normal variance combined with selective memory.

Incidentally, over the combination of the 6 or so times SBR has run this promo, I've come out almost exactly on expectation.

Thaddeus

[Capybara]

You thought wrongly. Many of us realize that what people think is "rigging" is actually normal variance combined with selective memory.

Incidentally, over the combination of the 6 or so times SBR has run this promo, I've come out almost exactly on expectation.

Thaddeus

Sorry Thad, but if it were possible to "settle this bet," I'd gladly wager HEAVILY -- HEAVILY -- that I am correct about the rigging and you are in the wrong. I know variance. I've played countless, countless, countless hands of blackjack at both the Connecticut casinos, and at numerous Las Vegas casinos, running on 15 years now. I've sat for hours upon hours upon hours. I know the whole variety of what can happen and what usually happens..... It's no coincidence that at ONLINE casinos, when you bet LARGER, suddenly instead of losing approximately 50% of your hands -- or even 60% or so -- over the course of several hands, you will lose 70%, 80%... continuously... with no sudden swing where you win 3 out of 4 or 5 out of 6... just a constant barrage of losses, 5 of 6, 8 of 9, 12 of 14, 17 of 20... a stunning run of defeats. This only happens when you raise your bets significantly. Happens every time. Not to mention the severely-against-the-norm number of times that you do NOT receive a 10 on double downs and instead receive low numbers.

I'm as convinced of this rigged-ness as you can be. And I think most on here would agree with me.

Perhaps SBR -- if they're smart -- turns this kill switch "off" during promotions, so people get a "normal" sense of the flow, and then return later, when the kill switch is back "on", and give their winnings back.

[milwaukee mike]

You thought wrongly. Many of us realize that what people think is "rigging" is actually normal variance combined with selective memory.

Incidentally, over the combination of the 6 or so times SBR has run this promo, I've come out almost exactly on expectation.

Thaddeus

thaddeus are you going to be on the forum right before this promo?

i have a very small possibility of being able to play, so we could work out a deal again in the unlikely event my son's birthday party gets done in time?

[byronbb]

Any tips for modifying BS?


What's the expectation per minute at 20 max bet?

[milwaukee mike]

Any tips for modifying BS?


What's the expectation per minute at 20 max bet?

calculate how many hands you are going to play x bet size x % advantage

so if you're going to play 10 hands/minute that's (10 x 20 x .06) or 12 pts/minute in player advantage

some people like to play extra super fast and make a couple mistakes, i feel like you should play basic strategy but to each his own. either way you're probably splitting hairs expectation-wise

[Cheme82]

I don't play online games like craps and BJ because I don't trust the number generators. Just because they pay you 3-1 on a BJ doesn't automatically make the game +EV. If the game is rigged, they could pay you 10-1 on a natural and still be -EV to play the game.

That being said, if the game is fair then that is a monster edge. Thanks SBR.

[yisman]

When this promo is run, it's +EV to play it. I've played almost every one and I'm well ahead, as are many others.

[Cheme82]

In that case; I'll definitely be playing, very fast.

[yisman]

Just turn fast play on and play very fast. I use basic strategy and since I have it memorized, I can go pretty fast. Then you have to hope for some scoreless drives to start the game.

[LUCKYCHUCK]

not so sure i like playing blackjack

[ThaddeusB]

thaddeus are you going to be on the forum right before this promo?

i have a very small possibility of being able to play, so we could work out a deal again in the unlikely event my son's birthday party gets done in time?

Yes, I'll be on. I have a staking thread in the points forum - just post there if you make it.

[ThaddeusB]

For anyone who is interested, I am offering no risk stakes for the promo. Might be a good option for those who are afraid the game is "rigged." I also have other options for those who want more of the profit in exchange for some of the risk.

Good luck all,
Thaddeus

[ChixBits]

@ThaddeusB how did you make it to 27000+ points ?

[ThaddeusB]

@ThaddeusB how did you make it to 27000+ points ?

Poker, hard work, and not purchasing anything in nearly a year.

[Capybara]

For anyone who is interested, I am offering no risk stakes for the promo. Might be a good option for those who are afraid the game is "rigged." I also have other options for those who want more of the profit in exchange for some of the risk.

Good luck all,
Thaddeus

Thad, I tried to send you a PM but you've exceeded your quota, so perhaps go and clear some out. Anyway, here's what I wrote. Sorry to clog this thread, other posters can ignore this post:

Hi Thad, I may be interested in a points stake for the promo today (particularly because I'm angry I lost my own 800+ points earlier this week). My only issue is that I'm a huge Pats fan and am not sure I really want to miss any of the game to be a degenerate gambler. However, I may get past this reservation. Or I may just play during "part" of the promo. You can rest assured that I play PERFECT strategy and can play super crazy fast.

However...

I've never borrowed points, and I must say that I am not sure I fully understand your three examples. So can you please elaborate on the three options you posted with perhaps more examples than the ones you listed of what my obligation would be given various results of winning or losing? I'd appreciate it. If you don't feel like it, no big deal. Thanks!

-Capy

[ThaddeusB]

Thad, I tried to send you a PM but you've exceeded your quota, so perhaps go and clear some out. Anyway, here's what I wrote. Sorry to clog this thread, other posters can ignore this post:

Hi Thad, I may be interested in a points stake for the promo today (particularly because I'm angry I lost my own 800+ points earlier this week). My only issue is that I'm a huge Pats fan and am not sure I really want to miss any of the game to be a degenerate gambler. However, I may get past this reservation. Or I may just play during "part" of the promo. You can rest assured that I play PERFECT strategy and can play super crazy fast.

However...

I've never borrowed points, and I must say that I am not sure I fully understand your three examples. So can you please elaborate on the three options you posted with perhaps more examples than the ones you listed of what my obligation would be given various results of winning or losing? I'd appreciate it. If you don't feel like it, no big deal. Thanks!

-Capy

Sure, I'll reply in thread...

[Sbot420]

yes for meeeee

[Mikica28]

Guys lots of those points you are probably to win today are mine points which I lost in casino, so all big winners send me a tip

[Capybara]

By the way, this is ONLY in that single-deck game??? The one that usually pays 6-5 on BJ? Why is the promo in that one? I never use that one because it seems even MORE rigged. I mean why give us the penalty that comes with the card-counting possibility you get with an actual deck, when I'm quite sure that that software is not really using a regular 52-card deck.

Has anyone confirmed that that game really uses a single deck followed by single deck followed by a single deck, etc.?

[Carseller4]

Being that kickoff is at 3 PM Eastern, I wonder how many will go to the casino at 3:30 only to find the promo has ended?

SBR being sneaky smooth on this.

[SBR Lou]

Has anyone confirmed that that game really uses a single deck followed by single deck followed by a single deck, etc.?

Can I borrow season one of the X-Files sometime?

[Capybara]

Can I borrow season one of the X-Files sometime?

Hahaha, good comeback. I'm not ordinarily a conspiracy theorist, but very cautious about online casinos. I mean come on, every time I ever raise my betting unit to something high, I lose 5, 6, 9, 10 hands in a row. Every time.

[RonPaul2008]

Is this at 3:30 ET or 3:00 ET? The game is supposed to start at 3:00 ET.