Does anyone have experience (good and bad) on this way of wagering? Looking forward to hearing thoughts.
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chase system
Very dangerous. You might win short term but long term a bad run can bury you. All the experienced guys I've spoken to avoid it.Comment -
Very good feedback. Thank you.Comment -
I found it great this past baseball season. I would look at home teams who I thought wouldn't get swept and chased them throughout the series. Most home teams never get swept and if they do its most likely by a team in there division. I believe phillies only lost 5 in a row at one point and besides that never lost more than 2 in a row.Comment -
I agree with doing it for baseball within the series...it's chasing with limitation. Betting that a team won't get swept is pretty solid and even if that does happen...your chasing ends after the third game. Other sports are too risky.Comment -
I use to do the chase system through John Morrison till last year in baseball. I was playing the yankees at home because they were swept the last series by Boston Red Sox...Well guess what happened again, the Yankees got swept. If you lose all the games in a 3 games series doubling up each game, you will lose all your profits plus more for the whole season. It is a scam, and John Morrison didn't even record it as a loss because he had "inside information" that he failed to send out to his system clients. I would avoid the chase system at all costs. GLComment -
You can try the Labouchere System. It is not as aggressive as the Martingale (chase) system, but in both cases you have to establish a limit to your losses in case of a bad run.
If you google Labouchere you will find a lot of info. Besides, theer is an interesting chat in the forum where Chilidog explains how he uses the system
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Keep in mind that chilidog no longer uses labby.Comment -
In my opinion (for what it's worth), the Martingale System is very dangerous, but can also be very profitable if you do things right. First of all...you HAVE to have a large bankroll. Then you only bet a small percentage of that bankroll. If done right it would take a losing streak of 7-8 losses all in a row to bury you. If you are betting smart, doing your research, and maybe following a decent capper then you limit those chances of a bad losing streak. I personally Martingale fading Quinn and Lang. Has worked for me so far...knock on wood.Comment -
didn't know that. tksComment -
Over a large sample size, losing 7-8 games in a row is inevitable. King said it best, chase systems (particularly the martindale) more often than not leave a gambler broke and feeling ridiculous.
If it were truly this simple there wouldn't be a book left in the business and Vegas would have gone back to being nothing more than a dry desert.
Best to find a capper or two to follow or fade that can bring in a reasonable rate of return at the end of the year. Sit back and be disciplined and patient.
A friend of mine was big on chase systems and has burned through thousands trying to prove that it worked. I can not tell you the stressed out phone calls I would get when he was betting $2000 after 5-6 losses to win back a mere $100.
I have been fortunate enough to have cappers that end my year around the 54%-57% win rate for the past 3 years. Even with this success I will experience 1-4 times during the year where they go 6-8 losses in a row. I once had a good capper go 11 losses in a row but still ended my year at 55.7%
I am dedicating this year to trying out Turner who in January has been hot as a pistol. However, it is important for me to remind myself that these early profits truly are not all mine to keep, I know I will have to give some back with an inevitable losing streak.
Always best to keep in mind that Vegas is one step ahead of us boys... they created the game we are playing.
Sorry if I come across like a rain cloud to this thread but I have seen people beat themselves up really bad with straight up chasing.
Stay humble, disciplined and patient.
Just my 2 cents which probably isn't worth much.Comment -
Maleku, I entirely agree with you.
My motto is: Wager placed, wager forgotten. If it comes out green, great. If not, tough luck, let's forget about the past and go for the next.
However, you can always use a variable bankroll and adjust your wagers according to its evolution, either as a fixed % or using Kelly if you are able to estimate the probabilities of a win or if the capper gives an indication (2*, 6*,...) that you convert into probabilities.
And NEVER more than 3% of your bankroll per individual wager.Comment -
Well said.
I am dabbling with unit wagering this year. Have always flat bet in the past but want to try unit this year to experiment a little. Mind you I have downsized what my "unit" is considerably from past years as I want my risk of ruin as low as possible.
I have a feeling one or 2 of my cappers use a version of the Kelly Criterion.
We will see where the chips fall at the end of the year.Comment -
I make a killing every year in baseball using my four chase systems but bankroll management is VERY important in order to succeed. In my opinion chase work only in baseball.
I flat bet the rest of the year.
GLComment
