What is your capping process?

[Bengals28]

Do you have one?

I'm seriously considering taking a few months off from wagering and evaluate different cappi g methods/back testing. Right now I just glance at stats if that.

So what's your capping process like?

[baskets]

I can't pick shit. Anyways, I'm reloading at one of my books and I'm going to focus on that account. I'm going to follow 2 guys that are over 80% with something like 50 picks on the books --- larco and canuck.

[High3rEl3m3nt]

what sport(s)?

MLB and NHL are in my opinion the easiest to cap...especially baseball. Baseball is a game of stats. Assuming you're looking at nba and cbb... maybe it's better to ask what has been your process? Some guys might be able to help you amend your process.

[Bengals28]

Basically looking for any ways for football, basketball and baseball.

Also I see a lot of ppl say baseball is one of the easier sports to profit in. Anyone mind sharing how they cap MLB?

[baskets]

fade the blacks works awfully well


Stanford coach
Bengals coach (12 nfl teams in playoffs. 2 black coaches. lost by about combined 30 pts vs. spread)
Steelers coach
LSU qb

SIU tonite

this angle works non-stop if u know where to look

[High3rEl3m3nt]

for baseball, there's quite a bit that goes into it...some of it is intuitive.

I guess my process involves match up stats, recent performances, home/ away records, hitting trends (teams can be really streaky), bullpen usage. I use free sites that provide the stats and then I tend to check them against several sites, such as cleanup hitter and sport trends. Another angle that I factor in are teams' past records. Why? because the best teams in baseball win roughly 60% of their games, which means there's a lot of value to be had playing dogs in good spots. I made a bundle in bases last year and I'm itching for the season to start....maybe, we and a few others can start a baseball handicapping discussion thread when the season starts.

finished last year hitting 56.59% over 210 plays and raked in over 50 units, which is pretty decent for me as I don't wager a lot of units per game.

[baskets]

at what price?

56.59% over 210 plays and raked in over 50 units

all that means nothing unless it is quantified. what if you're betting to win 50 units... I love how people just throw non-quantified shit out there and we're supposed to take it as granite rock solid pillars of cap-ology

[High3rEl3m3nt]

As stated, I don't wager a lot units on mlb games. In fact, many games I wagered anywhere from a half unit to a 2-3 units. My largest wager was Cards to win the series...made right before the World Series started...which was 6 units. All SBR spreadsheet verified.

[SportsMushroom]

sorry guy, anyone with a capping method that produces consistent long term results will definitely not post it in here

not because people are selfish but more because once the books know your angle they eliminate it


I doubt you are going to get any helpful responses, you'll have to figure it out for yourself

[High3rEl3m3nt]

sorry guy, anyone with a capping method that produces consistent long term results will definitely not post it in here

not because people are selfish but more because once the books know your angle they eliminate it


I doubt you are going to get any helpful responses, you'll have to figure it out for yourself

[Bengals28]

Yeah that sounds like a good idea element.


And the dude above me, I'm not looking for some huge breakthrough, just wondering some basic capping methods you guys use here.

[paco]

Best way to start off ur capping process is to rub one out early when u wake up. That way u will be focused and not irritated cuz u are horny.

Don't laugh, I'm being serious.

[Sam Odom]

I've been around sports wagering for 40+ years... If I don't have a 'feel' for a game I will not bet it unless it is very small $$$ just for action

I read all I can and listen to all I can (Internet will have more Info than you can handle)

I make a hard copy of opening lines and track the movement

That is about it

[Sam Odom]

sorry guy, anyone with a capping method that produces consistent long term results will definitely not post it in here

not because people are selfish but more because once the books know your angle they eliminate it


I doubt you are going to get any helpful responses, you'll have to figure it out for yourself

Poster Nicky/SG used to rant too much about this (forthcoming) but he was right:

95% of us do not have a chance in hell to out handicap the professional linemakers, they know everything we do then some... Also , on top of that you have to beat the juice

[The Kraken]

It's more than just capping. Guys get so hung up on capping. Capping certainly helps you approximately quantify an edge but is not easy. It can also be very time consuming. But it's also having numerous outs for easy arbs, hedges and finding the best #'s. It's knowing how to circumvent limits. Move money around. Keeping your money safe. How to identify +ev plays without having to know exactly what your edge is. Picking off stale #'s. Money management, just look at patty. Guy can be up 80units and not have but a penny to his name.

Bengals, the good days are gone guy. The books have sharpened up and taken away many angles. It's getting harder and harder to make a dime. Used to be easy

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Poster Nicky/SG used to rant too much about this (forthcoming) but he was right:

95% of us do not have a chance in hell to out handicap the professional linemakers, they know everything we do then some... Also , on top of that you have to beat the juice

I think your post brings up a great point and ones that support betting baseball. Other than TT and game totals, which have juice attached to them, it's mostly money line betting in baseball, which offers a lot of plus money opportunities. The best teams in baseball still lose a lot of games. The best pitchers in baseball still lose a lot of games. Games are being played everyday and injury/ player updates are more difficult to track and stay on top of than in football and basketball. Also, baseball is more dependent upon individual match-ups than other sports and baseball carries the unique stigma of being a numbers game, which means every stat angle can be found easily on the web. Baseball is made for gamblers.

[ApricotSinner32]

It's more than just capping. Guys get so hung up on capping. Capping certainly helps you approximately quantify an edge but is not easy. It can also be very time consuming. But it's also having numerous outs for easy arbs, hedges and finding the best #'s. It's knowing how to circumvent limits. Move money around. Keeping your money safe. How to identify +ev plays without having to know exactly what your edge is. Picking off stale #'s. Money management, just look at patty. Guy can be up 80units and not have but a penny to his name.

Bengals, the good days are gone guy. The books have sharpened up and taken away many angles. It's getting harder and harder to make a dime. Used to be easy

Not entirely true but some accurate information here. Sharp post.

[BaLLcappin99]

Best way to start off ur capping process is to rub one out early when u wake up. That way u will be focused and not irritated cuz u are horny.

Don't laugh, I'm being serious.

Agreed. Gotta find a way to be completely relaxed so that when you look at the card for the day that when you see Toronto Raptors you aren't instead thinking wow I want to rapet her

[FourLengthsClear]

Regardless of what methods you use, the one thing I would encourage everyone to do is to try to derive their own line/odds without even looking at the spread.

Put simply, if you cannot come up with a number which is within one point of what the books are offering 80-85% of the time, you are doing something wrong and it is very unlikely that you are part of the 5% that Sam refers to above. Real edges, are hard to come by these days in major sports. If your numbers consistently/significantly differ from those offered by the books you either a) are a genius and have found the 'holy grail' or b) might as well be throwing darts.

It makes me chuckle on this forum where team x is favoured by 7 and someone posts a lock saying that they will win by at least 20.

[hawley]

Take one dart board and 6 darts per day. Rinse and repeat.

[griz]

go with your gut, take a gamble

[jjgold]

3 things

any order

line movement
last few past games
bet good teams