Statistic guys, I need you...

YorkHunt · 01-10-12, 03:39 PM

90 days youve made 300 bets... wow. 3-4 bets EVERY single day

Regul8er · 01-10-12, 03:41 PM

Yorky.....actually over 120 days.......so about 2-3 bets per day!

And nj......way too little information you've provided bub. I don't know what a "statistic" guy would be able to tell you.

VegasInsider · 01-10-12, 03:44 PM

Hard to tell how well you've done since we don't know the play-by-play which would give us odds and risk amount. I'm assuming you've been plugging away and either flat betting or using units....but who knows, you could have made a huge play last night that put you in the black for the 120 day stretch.

That being said, if you've been flat betting or using units (seems like a $50-$100/game bettor) then you've done alright.

nj1035 · 01-10-12, 03:45 PM

Originally posted by YorkHunt

90 days youve made 300 bets... wow. 3-4 bets EVERY single day

2-3 bets per day. And there has been football on pretty much every single day for 4 months. And a lot of the Saturday/Sundays I've bet 5-10 games a day. So I don't see how you're confused by this.

VegasInsider · 01-10-12, 03:46 PM

The number of games per day means nothing. You've averaged 2.5 bets per day in the 4 months, it doesn't matter. The big thing is have you been sticking to units or flat betting?

floridagolfer · 01-10-12, 03:47 PM

300 bets is WAY too small of a sample. Depending on what kind of bets you're making, I'm thinking a thousand is much better.

However, the numbers that jumped out at me: (approximately) 300 wagers and a profit of $1,200. That's $4 per bet. Do the math; your bankroll would have to be ginormous if you're thinking about upping the ante.

TheCentaur · 01-10-12, 03:50 PM

Well it sounds like you are at the least ok. But yes small sample size. People play 10 shoes of blackjack and are ahead.

YouMama · 01-10-12, 03:50 PM

155$ a day ... at 8.5% return ... Sweet ... since the point of gambling is to make money, I dont judge anything but on a yearly basis, and measure it up against the inflation rate

VegasInsider · 01-10-12, 03:51 PM

Originally posted by floridagolfer

300 bets is WAY too small of a sample. Depending on what kind of bets you're making, I'm thinking a thousand is much better.

However, the numbers that jumped out at me: (approximately) 300 wagers and a profit of $1,200. That's $4 per bet. Do the math; your bankroll would have to be ginormous if you're thinking about upping the ante.

He made 300 wagers, not 300 wins.

With the infomation he's given us...I would peg him as a $50-100 bettor. He probably finished around 53.5% and picked up 12 units (using rough figures @ $100/flat bet per game)

Regul8er · 01-10-12, 03:51 PM

Originally posted by nj1035

2-3 bets per day. And there has been football on pretty much every single day for 4 months. And a lot of the Saturday/Sundays I've bet 5-10 games a day. So I don't see how you're confused by this.

nj...you mention the word "system" in your original post, but then you say here that there has been football on pretty much ever day for 4 months. That makes me believe your betting football every day. With that said, I find it hard pressed to believe there is a successful system, that gives out winners on many of these days where there are at most a handful of games!

BIGDAY · 01-10-12, 03:52 PM

I would say that you've done better than most.

Regul8er · 01-10-12, 03:53 PM

Originally posted by YouMama

155$ a day ... at 8.5% return ... Sweet ... since the point of gambling is to make money, I dont judge anything but on a yearly basis, and measure it up against the inflation rate

Where do you get $155/day? $1,200 profit over 120 days comes out to $10/day

YouMama · 01-10-12, 03:54 PM

I wasn thinking and just used the 90 days number the guy above posted

YouMama · 01-10-12, 03:56 PM

133$ wagered a day on average, 3.5 months ... 8.5% total return

dj_destroyer · 01-10-12, 04:08 PM

I'd say 3 years is the benchmark... If you can win for three years straight, consistently, then you can consider yourself +EV. Anything less is luck.

milkncereal · 01-10-12, 04:21 PM

you could run it in a stat program and get your r* and stuff like that and find out within like 95 or 98.5 confidence that is not a fluke.

but there is a reason why i got a c in business stats and thats because i got confused as hell w/ p values and all that stuff.

milkncereal · 01-10-12, 04:26 PM

from a google search heres what i think:

That is, if a system produces a 57% winning percentage over 2,000 games, mathematicians say that there is a 95% chance that the results are true (results will be better than 55% in the long-run). Please see Graph 1 for a plot of “Winning Percentage versus Sample Size.” Below 2,000 games, the results are good, but statisticians wouldn’t say that results are “significant” enough.

and in your case sample size or N=300

At the 200-game sample size, you would need a winning percentage in the low 60% range to prove statistical significance. Again: you should use your judgment and consider variables such as luck (slow start for a system) and the long-term average.

FourLengthsClear · 01-10-12, 04:32 PM

300 plays is nowhere near enough and this is doubly true if you system involves any sort of 'chasing'.

There was another guy a few weeks ago with a similar query.

System Error

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/1488587-1-000-plays-3-mos-n-im-up-2-600-turning-500-into-3-200-am-i-runing-hot.html

trytrytry · 01-10-12, 04:49 PM

has he answered the basic question is every wager he made for the same amount or at least almost the same amount between 50-200 for example?

nj1035 · 01-10-12, 06:48 PM

I used the term "system" loosely. It's really only halfway a system, and I use the inputs pretty loosely. And like some mentioned on here, I do pretty much bet every primetime game. It's mostly based on line movement, percentage of bets on each team, and other small factors. But the way I do it there is a side I can choose each game. How strong it fits the "system" is a different matter. But there is a side to choose each time.

Typically my bets have been ranging from $40-$100 depending on strength. And honestly, sometimes, personal bias. So to say I've stuck with one hard nosed system over this time period would be false.

davidchong · 01-10-12, 07:06 PM

how you feel, a winner or a loser?..........