Alabama

[No coincidences]

-115 ML at Bodog (PK).

-135 ML almost everywhere else (+2.5 side).

Not sure if I've seen that kind of gap before for such a big game.

[paco]

Noticed this also.

They been on Pk since early yesterday.

[t-wizzle]

Not really that surprising considering it's Bodog.

[No coincidences]

Not really that surprising considering it's Bodog.

Bodog always offers better numbers on the less popular plays, but 20 cents in a national championship game?

[t-wizzle]

Last year Oregon closed at -1 but stayed +3 at Bodog.

Here is my recommendation: Forget what the line is. You either like LSU or Bama.

[SEAHAWKHARRY]

Lsu

[sportcap]

Paco & NOCOIN what you make about this analysis from 4seasons on another thread re: bodog's line....seems to make sense to me...

"The lure to buy or tease the LSU +2 is done in an effort to save what the Book pays out when LSU wins by 2 scores. Some will figure 2 points could be the difference, and will pay -110. Others will be lured to buy a point or so to make it +3 or +3.5, which will cost you like -130 or -140. Others will be lured to the tease, so they can make it +8, which again will cost you more juice. The Book much rather pay out on -110, -130, -140, than paying out on +120. The Book figures if you take Bama -2 or the -140 ML, buy points or tease Bama, isn't going to do you any good when LSU wins by 2 scores. All the Bama bets then lose. It's truly genius when the Book thinks LSU will win by 2 scores, to not give 2 points to Bama, but to make LSU the dog. Only the folks bold enough to take the LSU ML, will have maximized their gains. Though as you can see, many will be lured to taking the points, buying points and teasing in effort to increase their chance of winning. However, they do so by sacrificing winnings, thus reducing what the Book will have to pay out. To repeat, all the Bama bets lose, and if you take LSU and the points, buy points or tease LSU, you'll see that is was pointless to do so and you just reduced your own payout.

Now look at bodog (or bovada whatever), the most conservative Book around. Do you see their line? Do you see how they're not playing the LSU +2 game. Heck no. They have LSU as a pick 'em at -105 right now. So what does that do? Well for one, they're offering you Bama SU at -115, the by far best Bama ML anywhere. Ask yourself, why is the most conservative book offering the best Bama ML? If you like Bama, you're devouring the opportunity to have them SU at -115. Meanwhile, what LSU backer would bet LSU SU @ -105, when you can get 2 points at -110? There's no Book that will let you buy 2 points for 5 cents. A half a point costs 10 cents each. Thus, they're saying with their arms WIDE open, Bama backers welcome, and LSU backers go away.

Now look at the SBR Sportsbook, another highly conservative Book to say the least. Here they already will give you LSU and 2.5, thus making it even more alluring to those who want points (including the buying and teasing). Though they won't give you +120 on the LSU ML if your astute enough to go that way, you'll get +115. So if you buy a half point here to make it LSU +3, it will cost you -130. Risk 130 to make 100 if you have LSU +3. However, if you put that 130 on the ML @ +115, you'd win like 150 instead of just 100. That's an extra $50 payout for every $130 risked. That is HUGE! And that's what the Books are doing here.

Bowl Contest at Heritagesports has one person who has picked every bowl game right so far. This person's pick for tonight ... LSU! There are 9 listed as tied for second place, with 6 of those 9 picking LSU.

Before Backing Bama Better Beware"

[Big Bear]

i feel like bama destined to win bc of tornado tragedy

[Tower]

i feel like bama destined to win bc of tornado tragedy

Interesting logic.

I got LSU because of Katrina.

[dredmahawkus]

that article just made me really pissed I put my last 100 on alabama!

[ksnooksk]

Very interesting....

I found this @ pinny

<table class="linesTbl" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr class="linesHeader"><td colspan="8">NCAA American Football - Mon 1/9

</td> </tr><tr class="linesColumns"> <td colspan="4">Game</td><td>Handicap</td><td>Money Line</td><td>Total Points</td><td>More</td> </tr><tr class="linesAlt1"> <td class="linesDate">Mon 1/9</td><td class="linesRotNumBold">269</td><td class="linesTeam">Alabama</td><td class="linesScore">
</td><td class="linesSpread">-2.5 -110</td><td class="linesMLine">-136</td><td class="linesTotals">Over 40.5 -114</td><td class="linesMore" rowspan="2" valign="middle" align="center">Props
</td> </tr><tr class="linesAlt1"> <td>05:30 PM</td><td class="linesRotNumBold">270</td><td class="linesTeam">LSU</td><td class="linesScore">
</td><td class="linesSpread">+2.5 +100</td><td class="linesMLine">+123</td><td class="linesTotals">Under 40.5 +103</td> </tr> </tbody></table> NCAA American Football - Mon 1/9

[ksnooksk]

If they let the opening line of LSU -1.5 go up naturally as most favorites who are heavily backed, then this would let the all the teasers come into play at for Bama. You're absolutely right.

[sandman0713]

doesn't really matter if you get bama at -6, -3, or even +3...they are all losers. just about every person on espn telling everyone bama deserves to be there for a month...and they all like bama to win this time. never before have i seen such nonsense. we have a team that went into one of the toughest stadiums in the country to win in and beat bama THIS YEAR...but because bama missed a few long fgs people want to discount it or say it doesn't matter. we have seen this game already...lsu wins. stop trying to outsmart the books...take lsu and the under. even heard someone try to say lsu was the square play...LOL. the source of a square's sports knowledge is clearly espn...who have been telling us for an entire month why this game will be different and bama will win. this is the easiest game in the history of ncaa football to cap. lsu played the tougher schedule and finished undefeated...including a win at bama.

[lyon804]

I am very close to both programs and have a great deal of repsect for both. I have never had such a hard time picking a winner and their is nothing to handicap here, but I have only envisioned LSU holding up the crystal ball. LSU to me is the team of destiny. Just like Alabama in 09, Auburn last year. LSU will be the third straight SEC team to go 14-0 and be crowned NC.


I can here it already after the game when LSU wins, ESPN will be saying they will repeat next year because many think next year's team will be even better with a new QB. LSU is loaded. But the same things were said about Alabama after they won 09'. They didn't repeat and most likely LSU will not either.

[No coincidences]

I'm the same way lyon. It's a virtual toss-up for me, but my gut continues to say LSU (despite what the line has done). Looser coach, better ST, etc.

I bought LSU up to +3 and I'm teasing LSU with the over. If Alabama does win, I'll take my chances that it's not by more than a FG. Don't think it's anything worth going big on, though.

[lyon804]

I'm the same way lyon. It's a virtual toss-up for me, but my gut continues to say LSU (despite what the line has done). Looser coach, better ST, etc.

I bought LSU up to +3 and I'm teasing LSU with the over. If Alabama does win, I'll take my chances that it's not by more than a FG. Don't think it's anything worth going big on, though.

HA, Alabama dont kick FG's


The really only decent bet in this whole thing is LSU +120 ML. It is a coinflip. Neither team is gonna kick the other teams ass like so many idiot's are saying. This is gonna bet swung by a big play or a big TO late. Anybody that knows these teams know they play close the last several years.

[ksnooksk]

I'm from the area. I live about an hour east of New Orleans. I see and hear all the hype from both sides. But, I just talked to 2 of my bookie friends, who I dont bet with, and they tell me that they are preparing themselves for a burial bc all the big money is coming in on LSU. But, this is a regional thing and they get buried a lot by the Saints and especially when they are at home.

Everybody is on LSU.

[ebbearsfb1]

Roll tide roll... bama for the win 17 12

[dymd3z]

Bama WINS here... Bottom Line .

[suicidekings]

HA, Alabama dont kick FG's The really only decent bet in this whole thing is LSU +120 ML. It is a coinflip. Neither team is gonna kick the other teams ass like so many idiot's are saying. This is gonna bet swung by a big play or a big TO late. Anybody that knows these teams know they play close the last several years.

This is where I'm sitting as well. Interesting note, normally you can sell points to the full extent of the dropdown menu at Pinny, which right now goes as far as LSU -1 (+134), however they won't let me squeeze them for that extra 10 cents in this game so I settled for LSU pk (+124) x2.5. Such a tight game that we're not in big-play territory, but worth a small one, IMO.

The way I break this game down is that despite having the superior OL and RBs, Alabama will continue to run into trouble with their running game because of the closing speed of the LSU secondary. Without a big play threat down low, the play-action passing from McCarron is much less effective, and he's just not the QB to be bombing downfield all night. Brad Wing is going to consistently limit the Tide's potential return game, forcing a longer field, and the only way I see Alabama winning this game is if McCarron really elevates his play and Saban decides to take a more aggressive approach to this game. However if we see McCarron throwing a lot early in the game, it speaks of desperation from Alabama to a certain extent, as it's deviating from their strength.

Good luck Lyon

[lyon804]

This is where I'm sitting as well. Interesting note, normally you can sell points to the full extent of the dropdown menu at Pinny, which right now goes as far as LSU -1 (+134), however they won't let me squeeze them for that extra 10 cents in this game so I settled for LSU pk (+124) x2.5. Such a tight game that we're not in big-play territory, but worth a small one, IMO.

The way I break this game down is that despite having the superior OL and RBs, Alabama will continue to run into trouble with their running game because of the closing speed of the LSU secondary. Without a big play threat down low, the play-action passing from McCarron is much less effective, and he's just not the QB to be bombing downfield all night. Brad Wing is going to consistently limit the Tide's potential return game, forcing a longer field, and the only way I see Alabama winning this game is if McCarron really elevates his play and Saban decides to take a more aggressive approach to this game. However if we see McCarron throwing a lot early in the game, it speaks of desperation from Alabama to a certain extent, as it's deviating from their strength.

Good luck Lyon

You said a mouthful right there. You are points are sharp as well, but that is the way I see it.

I have said that LSU plays Alabama's game just as good or better than Alabama, but the real difference is they have the best punter by far, a reliable fg kicker, and last but not least their kicker will kick the ball in the endone where Alabama starts at the 20. Alabama's kicker blows and LSU will get some nice returns tonite setting up a shorter field.

[Romanov]

going to hope for a quick score and bet the under live, otherwise no bet. the line move has made me shy away from LSU

[dredmahawkus]

I am thinking about switching and throwing some on LSU -3 +159.....my luck I will middle myself!

with my local I have like 10 half done ready to win teases with bama +7.5.....I should probably take some LSU ML

I am so stumped on this game....a true coin flip! so you have to take the + ml right?

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

doesn't really matter if you get bama at -6, -3, or even +3...they are all losers. just about every person on espn telling everyone bama deserves to be there for a month...and they all like bama to win this time. never before have i seen such nonsense. we have a team that went into one of the toughest stadiums in the country to win in and beat bama THIS YEAR...but because bama missed a few long fgs people want to discount it or say it doesn't matter. we have seen this game already...lsu wins. stop trying to outsmart the books...take lsu and the under. even heard someone try to say lsu was the square play...LOL. the source of a square's sports knowledge is clearly espn...who have been telling us for an entire month why this game will be different and bama will win. this is the easiest game in the history of ncaa football to cap. lsu played the tougher schedule and finished undefeated...including a win at bama.

I'm with this guy. We've seen this game already not to long ago. To be exact 2 months ago. Why would this game be completely different then it was 2 months ago? From a whoppin 9 points, all of sudden this game is going to be a shootout? I highly doubt that. Bama could of won in the first meeting, but they blew their chances. LSU ends up prevailing in OT and go undefeated from there on out.

7 points TEASER:

LSU +9.5
UNDER 48.5

[suicidekings]

I'm with this guy. We've seen this game already not to long ago. To be exact 2 months ago. Why would this game be completely different then it was 2 months ago? From a whoppin 9 points, all of sudden this game is going to be a shootout? I highly doubt that. Bama could of won in the first meeting, but they blew their chances. LSU ends up prevailing in OT and go undefeated from there on out. 7 points TEASER: LSU +9.5 UNDER 48.5

The only reason to think things will be different is that in the NC game, the team that's trailing at any given time, especially in the 2H, will probably be more willing to make aggressive plays. I would think that if we make it through the first half without one team leading by 7+, the game should play out in a similar fashion. But no team wants to go out with a whimper in the NC game...

[lyon804]

The only reason to think things will be different is that in the NC game, the team that's trailing at any given time, especially in the 2H, will probably be more willing to make aggressive plays. I would think that if we make it through the first half without one team leading by 7+, the game should play out in a similar fashion. But no team wants to go out with a whimper in the NC game...

Let me tell you about Nick Saban.. Even if Bama gets up 10-14 pts in this game early we are still safe. He will move away from the pass and run up the middle on 1st and 2nd down and pass on 3rd down and punt. Saban likes to sit on leads and tries to "manage" the game. Love's to go away from what is working and put the game on his defense. LSU will never really be out of this game even if Alabama comes out swinging early and lands some punches. If Alabama gets an early lead it will be because they moved the ball effectively passing it. Once this happens he will go away from it.

[The DiB]

I agree with most of what Lyon posted in this thread. People over look special teams so much. When you have offenses and defenses as closely rated as these teams do, special teams is even bigger. LSU's special teams is much better. It was the big difference in the first game, and it should be again in this one.

[sandman0713]

The only reason to think things will be different is that in the NC game, the team that's trailing at any given time, especially in the 2H, will probably be more willing to make aggressive plays. I would think that if we make it through the first half without one team leading by 7+, the game should play out in a similar fashion. But no team wants to go out with a whimper in the NC game...

the first game was a national championship game as well. we all knew whoever won it was going to the nc game...and i doubt anyone held any realistic hope the loser would make the nc game as well and there would be a rematch. maybe it does play out in a different way tonight...but anyone who actually caps games each week to make money has to understand this game has already been played this year with these same players with pretty much the same stakes on the line. that is as good as it will ever get as far as having info to look at to determine what will happen in a game...it was 9-6, and it took overtime to get there. to say anything over 40 will be scored is just a guess, and not a real smart bet imo.

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

I agree with most of what Lyon posted in this thread. People over look special teams so much. When you have offenses and defenses as closely rated as these teams do, special teams is even bigger. LSU's special teams is much better. It was the big difference in the first game, and it should be again in this one.

What do you think of this prop?

Will there be a Special Team or Defensive touchdown scored in the game?

YES +125

With Mathieu returning punts for LSU And the way both defenses are built, there will be turnovers in this game. Hopefully one returned to the house. Its good value in my opinion.

[lakerboy]

I'm all over alabama.

[ksnooksk]

Well, they are sure making it attractive to pick LSU pk +105...

[BettingWizard]

I'm all over alabama.

[SmackdownV]

Great insight Lyon on this thread.

Taking LSU ML for $500

Parlayed the LSU ML and the over 40.5 for $200

Gl to all tonight!

[HOT WINGS]

Rolling with Bama in this one.

[suicidekings]

the first game was a national championship game as well. we all knew whoever won it was going to the nc game...and i doubt anyone held any realistic hope the loser would make the nc game as well and there would be a rematch. maybe it does play out in a different way tonight...but anyone who actually caps games each week to make money has to understand this game has already been played this year with these same players with pretty much the same stakes on the line. that is as good as it will ever get as far as having info to look at to determine what will happen in a game...it was 9-6, and it took overtime to get there. to say anything over 40 will be scored is just a guess, and not a real smart bet imo.

Yes and No. The game never reached that level because the defenses held out on both sides, and all the way through it was a FG game. A big offensive play or a defensive score to put one team ahead by a TD in the first quarter can change everything in how the teams approach the rest of the game.

Not that I'm suggesting the Over is a play here. I still think we're talking about a relatively low scoring game, but when you get cut early in a fight, your tactics have to change as you can no longer afford to play to a preventative game when behind. I was surprised not to see a TD in the first game, and would be shocked not to see at least one tonight.

Something like 13-6 / 16-10 for LSU