Why not slam Niners +1225 to win SB, then hedge by betting against every opponent?

Avenger · 01-08-12, 02:19 AM

do it!

iifold · 01-08-12, 02:27 AM

Aldon Smith gives them a realistic chance to beat both the Saints and Packers...

A little bad weather wouldn't hurt either...

Gonna be about 55 and cloudy next week I think...

peeiempee · 01-08-12, 02:43 AM

There should be a loop hole scenerio or x-factor you didn't take into account here. Vegas does not give away free money.

FourLengthsClear · 01-08-12, 02:46 AM

LOL.

If the 49'ers beat the Saints and then lose to the Packers your are down 850 bones!

Your +1225 future bet is lost = -500
Your bet on the Saints to beat the 49ers is lost = -850
Your bet on the Packers to beat the 49ers is a winner = +500

Net result = -850.

Needless to say that loss would be a whole lot worse if SF lost to NE in the Superbowl (given you would have lost the 3200 wagered on GB too).

warriorfan707 · 01-08-12, 02:50 AM

Originally posted by FourLengthsClear

LOL.

If the 49'ers beat the Saints and then lose to the Packers your are down 850 bones!

Your +1225 future bet is lost = -500
Your bet on the Saints to beat the 49ers is lost = -850
Your bet on the Packers to beat the 49ers is a winner = +500

Net result = -850.

Needless to say that loss would be a whole lot worse if SF lost to NE in the Superbowl (given you would have lost the 3200 wagered on GB too).

but if gb is only an 8 pt favorite... that would be a ML of around -380.

the numbers I used were worst case scenarios

Niners beat Saints and lose to GB you could still easily break even

warriorfan707 · 01-08-12, 02:52 AM

Ok I see where I went wrong here, I forgot you have to account for the loss of the additional 850 as well

warriorfan707 · 01-08-12, 02:53 AM

4LC why am I thinking there is a sure fire way to ensure you dont lose anything and still have room to make a profit?

warriorfan707 · 01-08-12, 02:54 AM

Would be a totally different scenario is the Niners werent dogs to the Saints

Also would be huge if GB would lose their first game

FourLengthsClear · 01-08-12, 02:56 AM

Originally posted by warriorfan707

but if gb is only an 8 pt favorite... that would be a ML of around -380.

the numbers I used were worst case scenarios

Niners beat Saints and lose to GB you could still easily break even

The bottom line is that it can only be hedged if the initial +1225 is going to be better than the cumulative odds for the 49ers to win their three remaining games.

Based on them playing the Saints, Packers and Patriots, there is no chance of that. You would need an upset in the Packers match against NYG/ATL for it to be realistic.

warriorfan707 · 01-08-12, 03:00 AM

What about not hedging the first game and just hedging the remaining two

Assuming they beat the Saints thats gotta be +EV

FindTheLock · 01-08-12, 03:04 AM

The first time I ever saw a parlay card I was an idiot. I sat down for about a minute thinking why don't I just bet the left side on one card, and then bet the right side on another to make me a millionaire. Then I realized what happens if a team on the right side wins at the same time as a team on the left side. The math the books use is flawless.

warriorfan707 · 01-08-12, 03:07 AM

Originally posted by FindTheLock

The first time I ever saw a parlay card I was an idiot. I sat down for about a minute thinking why don't I just bet the left side on one card, and then bet the right side on another to make me a millionaire. Then I realized what happens if a team on the right side wins at the same time as a team on the left side. The math the books use is flawless.

Yes but if we leave the first game alone and the Niners we can guarantee ourselves a profit here.

FindTheLock · 01-08-12, 03:09 AM

ok give me some make believe lines that could be believable and let's crunch the numbers.

FindTheLock · 01-08-12, 03:11 AM

+1225x500=6125 this is what we are going to subtract from

warriorfan707 · 01-08-12, 03:12 AM

Niners at Packers... Packers -8.5? ML -400?

Niners/Patriots Patriots -4.5 -190?

Seem fair?

FindTheLock · 01-08-12, 03:14 AM

sure that's fair enough, but we are risking 500 on the niners to beat the saints straight up to start right?

warriorfan707 · 01-08-12, 03:15 AM

Also... you dont have to necessarily bet the big ml's on the other side...

You could just tease it down

In all likelihood if they lose it wont be by 1,2,or even 3

However granted if they lose by very few points that could be disastrous

warriorfan707 · 01-08-12, 03:15 AM

Actually on second though I dont think GB would be an 8.5 point favorite

Maybe more like 7

warriorfan707 · 01-08-12, 03:18 AM

Originally posted by FindTheLock

sure that's fair enough, but we are risking 500 on the niners to beat the saints straight up to start right?

No we would leave the first one alone and pray they get past the Saints, then we would be home free Im thinking

500 to win 6125 on the Super Bowl

Leave Div game alone

1600 to win 500 on GB

damn then you gotta win 2100 by betting NE ML which may not be possible given yout 6125 budget to break even

FindTheLock · 01-08-12, 03:20 AM

Let's say we get +150 on the niners ML vs the saints. 500x1.5=750. 750+500=1250. What do you think they will offer the futures bet at this point?

Avenger · 01-08-12, 03:21 AM

Yeah, now that FLC did the math, this is a bad bet.

You had to get a strong dog, and it had to be better odds. 49ers is not a good team to future bet.

But this strategy work: you just gotta buy earlier at a better price.

FindTheLock · 01-08-12, 03:21 AM

Originally posted by warriorfan707

No we would leave the first one alone and pray they get past the Saints, then we would be home free Im thinking

500 to win 6125 on the Super Bowl

Leave Div game alone

1600 to win 500 on GB

damn then you gotta win 2100 by betting NE ML which may not be possible given yout 6125 budget to break even

yes but since our futures bet would already be made we are actually betting 500 on the niners to beat the saints.

warriorfan707 · 01-08-12, 03:21 AM

Originally posted by FindTheLock

Let's say we get +150 on the niners ML vs the saints. 500x1.5=750. 750+500=1250. What do you think they will offer the futures bet at this point?

At what point? After the Niners beat the Saints?

FindTheLock · 01-08-12, 03:25 AM

Originally posted by warriorfan707

At what point? After the Niners beat the Saints?

if you were to place a 500 dollar futures bet on the 49ers to win the superbowl they would need to beat the saints in order for you to win correct? So why not bet on the 49ers to beat the saints to get your bankroll to a rough estimate of 1250 instead of leaving it at only 500 first?

warriorfan707 · 01-08-12, 03:26 AM

Originally posted by FindTheLock

if you were to place a 500 dollar futures bet on the 49ers to win the superbowl they would need to beat the saints in order for you to win correct? So why not bet on the 49ers to beat the saints to get your bankroll to a rough estimate of 1250 instead of leaving it at only 500 first?

Because theres no way to hedge that...

The whole point was to come up with a risk free way to make money using the futures bet

It appears the only way thats possible in this case would be to bypass hedging the Saints game

FindTheLock · 01-08-12, 03:28 AM

Originally posted by warriorfan707

Because theres no way to hedge that...

The whole point was to come up with a risk free way to make money using the futures bet

It appears the only way thats possible in this case would be to bypass hedging the Saints game

but if you bypass hedging the saints game you are still risking 500 on the 49ers to beat the saints, you just aren't getting paid for it.

warriorfan707 · 01-08-12, 03:30 AM

Originally posted by FindTheLock

but if you bypass hedging the saints game you are still risking 500 on the 49ers to beat the saints, but you just aren't getting paid for it.

I see your point.

Ok so lets assume +150. Niners win. Now have a roll of 1250. Futures bet would be what at this point? +700 to take the whole cake?

FindTheLock · 01-08-12, 03:31 AM

rough estimates since we don't know the lines, but now we have a free 750 to play with!

FindTheLock · 01-08-12, 03:34 AM

if it were +700 then 1250x7=8750 which is better than the other option already!

warriorfan707 · 01-08-12, 03:35 AM

If Niners lose to the Saints this whole thing is LOL though

Mission would be an epic fail

This cannot be allowed to happen

FindTheLock · 01-08-12, 03:36 AM

haha there is no way to circumvent the possibilities of potentially ending up with 0. The math is flawless.

DrIn$entive · 01-08-12, 03:38 AM

warriorfan trying to bury the forum players

warriorfan707 · 01-08-12, 03:41 AM

LOL not at all for some reason when I did this in my head I forgot about the 850 that would be dropped if you straight bet Saints ML and Niners advanced

Overlooked that part

But by bypassing round 1 and Niners win it may still be possible to guarntee something

But then as FindTheLock stated then we might as well just straight bet Niners ML in round 1

FourLengthsClear · 01-08-12, 03:45 AM

Odds on Betfair to win the Superbowl are currently 17.00 (+1600).

Without having gone through the various permutations, that looks much more realistic to me than the heavily juiced 5Dimes offer.