If youre an ORIGINATOR that wins then how are line move significant? They dont mean shit. They just mean you or people that follow you caused some action to move them, if you caused it and you were 'right' then it makes it appear as if the line move was "correct". That is known as causality.
A lot of RAS moves are caused by his guys and clients betting his plays. so people and himself will cite him "beating the closing number" by X amount well of course if he causes it. If he were wrong then those lines moves would mean shit. They still move. He just happens to be correct. But in games he loses he still 'beats the closer' he was just wrong. So line moves dont mean shit unless you have a game that ends in a bad spot for late comers.
I would also challenge anyone who plays his numbers to see how he has done versus these moves. In the past he has had a significant difference in results versus his released number versus WA or closers. Which can be looked at two ways. He is playing games that are too close tot he number, OR if you can get the opener or better and buy back you have a good chance to hit a couple middles. Since all the results are after the fact then hindsight is 20/20 I suppose.
When I was betting heavy at Pinnacle I would move openers 5 or 8 cents in baseball overnights. Once they changed their software it was sometime more. Did those moves mean anything? Only thing they meant was I was getting almost enough action on my own money to break even I just relied on guys that followed moves to do the rest for me. I really didnt give a shit who won I just wanted the cheapest price on both teams to maximize my collection regardless of who won.
Obviously that is different in spread based sports but guys with a clue and can generate line movement will buy back especially if the numbers jive. While middling isnt broad board profitable there are certain areas and sports where it can be. That is why I suggested people who follow him and his plays and the moves those lines make do an accounting to see how many of them would have won both ways. (His number he released and the extreme number the other way).
If they do make a difference in enough games then you have a decision, makes sure you can always get the best number on his side and dont bet games after they move, or bet games with no or a small line move then buy back the other side after it peaks, wait for the releases then cherry pick the opposite side or a few others.
This year he is doing fairly well, at least on sides so blindly fading line moves there wouldnt work. His 'bread and butter' totals plays arent doing as well as they have, but unless the moves are really siginficant and open up a ton of middles I doubt going contrarian to them would work either.
That is the great irony, everyone talks about line moves being the end all be all. IF and thats a big IF they are then the games youre betting are too close to call. As in why bet a game -5 that ends with a 6 point difference? Pick a game (if youre really that good) that is -8 and the dog wins SU. Basically because no one is that good, and the guys who do the best get all things aligned perfectly, they pick the right side more often than not, they get the best number more often than not, and they get a little bit of luck more often than not.
Ed on a personal level could win betting his own plays, his clients on the other hand have no such guarantee. This year they probably could as he is doing really well. But results are still going to vary from client to client depending on how many games he has released where the moves have mattered. Generally speaking it should be around 1-2%. So 1 or 2 games per one hundred will a line move make a winner a push or a loss. if it is more than that then the games being released are high risk.
A lot of RAS moves are caused by his guys and clients betting his plays. so people and himself will cite him "beating the closing number" by X amount well of course if he causes it. If he were wrong then those lines moves would mean shit. They still move. He just happens to be correct. But in games he loses he still 'beats the closer' he was just wrong. So line moves dont mean shit unless you have a game that ends in a bad spot for late comers.
I would also challenge anyone who plays his numbers to see how he has done versus these moves. In the past he has had a significant difference in results versus his released number versus WA or closers. Which can be looked at two ways. He is playing games that are too close tot he number, OR if you can get the opener or better and buy back you have a good chance to hit a couple middles. Since all the results are after the fact then hindsight is 20/20 I suppose.
When I was betting heavy at Pinnacle I would move openers 5 or 8 cents in baseball overnights. Once they changed their software it was sometime more. Did those moves mean anything? Only thing they meant was I was getting almost enough action on my own money to break even I just relied on guys that followed moves to do the rest for me. I really didnt give a shit who won I just wanted the cheapest price on both teams to maximize my collection regardless of who won.
Obviously that is different in spread based sports but guys with a clue and can generate line movement will buy back especially if the numbers jive. While middling isnt broad board profitable there are certain areas and sports where it can be. That is why I suggested people who follow him and his plays and the moves those lines make do an accounting to see how many of them would have won both ways. (His number he released and the extreme number the other way).
If they do make a difference in enough games then you have a decision, makes sure you can always get the best number on his side and dont bet games after they move, or bet games with no or a small line move then buy back the other side after it peaks, wait for the releases then cherry pick the opposite side or a few others.
This year he is doing fairly well, at least on sides so blindly fading line moves there wouldnt work. His 'bread and butter' totals plays arent doing as well as they have, but unless the moves are really siginficant and open up a ton of middles I doubt going contrarian to them would work either.
That is the great irony, everyone talks about line moves being the end all be all. IF and thats a big IF they are then the games youre betting are too close to call. As in why bet a game -5 that ends with a 6 point difference? Pick a game (if youre really that good) that is -8 and the dog wins SU. Basically because no one is that good, and the guys who do the best get all things aligned perfectly, they pick the right side more often than not, they get the best number more often than not, and they get a little bit of luck more often than not.
Ed on a personal level could win betting his own plays, his clients on the other hand have no such guarantee. This year they probably could as he is doing really well. But results are still going to vary from client to client depending on how many games he has released where the moves have mattered. Generally speaking it should be around 1-2%. So 1 or 2 games per one hundred will a line move make a winner a push or a loss. if it is more than that then the games being released are high risk.
If you were paying for picks would you really want them to bet them first? 
