Why buying points on a college basketball total is a terrible bet

[Emily_Haines]

<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <woNotOptimizeForBrowser/> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--> 15250 game sample size

buying 6.5 pts and betting over resulted a record of 9774-5323-153 (64.1%)
buying 6.5 pts and betting under resulted in a record of 9933-5140-177 (65.9%)

the price to buy 6.5pts costs –240 meaning you have to win 70.58 out of every 100 bets to break even


buying 3.5 pts and betting over resulted a record of 8735-6349-166 (57.9%)
buying 3.5 pts and betting under resulted in a record of 8875-6179-196 (59.0%)

the price to buy 3.5pts costs –180 meaning you have to win 64.28 out of every 100 bets to break even


BUYING 6.5pts Let’s just simplify this buy saying you win 65% of your bets which is about average according to the sample
Out of 100 plays you will have on average
65 wins for +6500
35 losses for –8400
Results = -1900



BUYING 3.5pts
Let’s just simplify this buy saying you win 58% of your bets which is about average according to the sample
Out of 100 plays you will have on average
58 wins for +5800
42 losses for –7560
Results = -1760



BUYING 0pts
If you just bet these games straight with the standard –110 you would be expected to go 50/50
Out of 100 plays you will have on average
50 wins for +5000
50 losses for –5500
Results = -500




You can go through every scenario whether it is .5pts or 20pts at no point will this yield better results than playing the games straight up at -110