Trap of the day, Charlotte +14.5

[Jaug]

People are all over charlotte tonight. This line has to be put there for a reason. Looking at miami's games so far this season they shouldn't lay 14.5 to Charlotte.

I guess that's why 72% of bets are coming in on the dog in the mu. Stay away

[jjgold]

Yeh watch Heat win by 20

I layed off the game

[demens]

I dont think this is a trap. Miami is 4-0 and arguably the best team in the league. Bobcats are down there with the worst of the league and just got annihilated by Orlando. The line seems right to me. People are just jumping on the Bobcats because they played the Heat close at home. The Heat were getting inflated lines like this all year and will continue to get them. They actually did not have a good ATS record as a double digit fav so i think Cats may be a good play. At the end of the day you're betting on a horrible team to not get blown out by an elite team so keep that in mind, but its no trap imo.

[demens]

besides, sportsinsights has the spread at 53% Heat, public is hardly all over the Cats.

[Dexter]

yeah, "traps" are typically not set for horrible teams. traps are meant to entice squares on taking good public teams (ie, if miami was -3 at charl)....thats a trap.

[monologue]

FYI people.. Trap exists in all kind of game. And for me this is trap. Cats playing close with miami at their home... And giving 14.5 just bcuz they r away from home makes people think 14.5 is way too big an believe that the cats will at least cover the handicapp but im sorry... They are wrong, heat will take this game by 20pts or more..82% on cats and 18% on heat from vegasinsider(sportsbook)

[Jaug]

70% on charlotte ATS according to pregame.

[Jaug]

yeah, "traps" are typically not set for horrible teams. traps are meant to entice squares on taking good public teams (ie, if miami was -3 at charl)....thats a trap.

Not really. Traps are lines that stand out of the ordinary. This is definately such a case. Miami hasnt been close to covering this line in any of their games so far vs 4 different opponents.

On another note, thinking of going big on miami this game.

[Dexter]

FYI people.. Trap exists in all kind of game. And for me this is trap. Cats playing close with miami at their home... And giving 14.5 just bcuz they r away from home makes people think 14.5 is way too big an believe that the cats will at least cover the handicapp but im sorry... They are wrong, heat will take this game by 20pts or more..82% on cats and 18% on heat from vegasinsider(sportsbook)

do not use vegasinsider for sides...i think it accounts for 1 sportsbook. 82% of the public is not the on the bobcats...lol

http://www.thespread.com/nba-basketball-public-betting-chart

use this site....

[Dexter]

Not really. Traps are lines that stand out of the ordinary. This is definately such a case. Miami hasnt been close to covering this line in any of their games so far vs 4 different opponents.

couldn't disagree more. i don't know one square bettor who would look at this line and be enticed to take a team like the bobcats.

i hope you don't look for traps every day. that's not what the books intentions are.

[Dexter]

70% on charlotte ATS according to pregame.

use thespread.com.....they take a consensus from sportsinsights. its widely considered the gold standard for free public bet%'s....and according to them, just 47% is on charl.

[Jaug]

couldn't disagree more. i don't know one square bettor who would look at this line and be enticed to take a team like the bobcats.

i hope you don't look for traps every day. that's not what the books intentions are.

I agree public wont jump all over it but still 14.5 points, i would expect this line at 10.5 or similar but I would never bet charlotte since I cant see the reason why the line is set this way.

[Dexter]

I agree public wont jump all over it but still 14.5 points, i would expect this line at 10.5 or similar but I would never bet charlotte since I cant see the reason why the line is set this way.

miami's lines are always going to be jacked...i thought this year they would bury teams on a regular basis, but not the case thus far

[PR9]

1) miami is due to cover. they blew out bobcats in the 2nd half of the last game

2) bobcats are weak mentally. they put in alot of effort against miami last week and lost. Then they responded with their fragile young minds and mental state by being lazy and playing like wussies against the magic getting blown out in the next game. they were atrocious.

3) Heat are at home, this isn't on the road like the wolves and bobcats games. The last time Heat were at home they led 14 at the half over the celtics.

4) the heat had a propensity to blow out poor teams last year. they are due for one.

5) revenge factor. the heat almost lost to the bobcats in charlotte,.. they may come out today and show them who's boss.

6) the line says everything

7) the heat blew out poor teams on weekend afternoon games last year

8) the heat will want to put on a show for the home crowd as it's a holiday, new years day. As well as other factors.

there's more factors i can put out there but that's a start..

EDIT:

But You know what.

the moneyline vegas has is high for this spread.

it's -2300 at the more reliable places. And it's been off the board altogether in one popular book.

what does that tell you.

hmmm

[Vitooch]

Take the 1H -8.5

[monologue]

i am going to trust my guts... this is miami game.
when the line is -14.5... not many people have guts to bet BIG on miami, while a lot of people will bet big on bobcats. +14.5 gives them confidence to their betting. Regardless of how many % are for bobcats (as u said 47%), i think the money they poured on bobcats are much bigger than the money on miami. Plus.. including all the things PR9 said which I agree... I have no regret even if miami loses... sorry for my terrible english

[PR9]

i am going to trust my guts... this is miami game.
when the line is -14.5... not many people have guts to bet BIG on miami, while a lot of people will bet big on bobcats. +14.5 gives them confidence to their betting. Regardless of how many % are for bobcats (as u said 47%), i think the money they poured on bobcats are much bigger than the money on miami. Plus.. including all the things PR9 said which I agree... I have no regret even if miami loses... sorry for my terrible english

i like Orlando in this spot at -11

[BernardMadoff]

Charlotte first quarter and first half, Heat celebrated last night harder than usual with this game being at 7pm for them. They wont be as sharp early on.

[monologue]

what are ur bets PR9? im going heavy on miamia and washington. some side bets on minesota and denver... hmmm got some ML on NJN too

[bobbyfk]

1) The last time Heat were at home they led 14 at the half over the celtics.

they don't pay at the half...and what was the final score of this game? Heat did not cover

[PR9]

Charlotte first quarter and first half, Heat celebrated last night harder than usual with this game being at 7pm for them. They wont be as sharp early on.

No way. I had Miami 1st Q and 1H bets placed this morning.


the "spot" screamed for it.

SCREAMED !! They were going to come out hard tonight.

[monologue]

Miami slaughtering cats now... Hope this continues

[DrIn$entive]

Heat on FIRE!!!

[Sport_Fish]

Just gotta be afraid of a backdoor cover here, Miami tend to take naps during second half.

[BernardMadoff]

No way. I had Miami 1st Q and 1H bets placed this morning.


the "spot" screamed for it.

SCREAMED !! They were going to come out hard tonight.

Yea I went small on it, didnt pan out.

[jjgold]

Miami was due

Played a lot of close games

[illAdelph]

Miami was due

Played a lot of close games

absolutely

[Jaug]

129-90 which is a 39 point win. Enough said.

[Djstucky]

Nice call here...Miami dominated this game...

[monologue]

those who betted on miami...
SAY YEAH!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Coolsmarti]

I took -8.5 at HT. Nooo problem. :-)

[daimoshokage]

Miami was due

Played a lot of close games

Sharp post from the sharpest guy on the forum!!!!!