Line Shopping Only Gets You Best Number At That Moment

[jjgold]

Does not mean you have an edge

You can bet Knicks -3 and have 10 books and that was best number in afternoon

Player B has one book and at night before tip off bets Knicks -1

Player B has the edge

Line closes -1

[daneault23]

You can have big rooster like myself originally does... Player A

Or you can take supplements and pills and grow it naturally like Player B (JJgold)

Player A has edge.. less money spent

[minet123]

OK thanks for that

[Br0nxer]

or you could just be that guy whose wife is being drilled at work by a co-worker

[ApricotSinner32]

Disregard any advice gold gives... he works for the other side.

[big0mar]

[jjgold]

Its when you make the bet..luck of the draw a lot unless your a pro at knowing when lines will move

[MoneyLineDawg]

Sometimes it pays to wait and bet against the full steam......Last night I took Baylor -2.....They were -4.5 I believe and it went down to 2 right before tip.....Baylor ended up winning by alot anyway but still

Steam is not a guaranteed winner or we all would do it and be rich

[Sam Odom]

Where is Nicky when you need him...??

[ZetaPsi808]

if u BetOT -3 and it closes -1 you are doing it wrong

[Love The Action]

Does not mean you have an edge

You can bet Knicks -3 and have 10 books and that was best number in afternoon

Player B has one book and at night before tip off bets Knicks -1

Player B has the edge

Line closes -1

This is groundbreaking stuff here

[LVHerbie]

...

[upscope]

[jjgold]

Follow me here

Take a lead on an opener in which you think will move in your favor

I give this shit out for free

[Checkerboard]

best line shopping on boxing day

[mlfan]

You take 1000 plays at -110 and I line shop the same 1000 plays for -105. Do I not have an edge over you?

Line shopping won't guarantee you'll have the best line for when the bet is open but who said it does? I've never read that line shopping equates to beating the closing the line. What it does give you is a noticeable edge.

[ponyshowdown]

that is amazing.....ly obvious. my dog knows that.

[7secondsOrLess]

lol

[The Kraken]

As long as your bets are +even nothing else matters. You don't even have to pick winners. At least that's my understanding of it.

[The Kraken]

As long as your bets are +even nothing else matters. You don't even have to pick winners. At least that's my understanding of it.

Very sharp first post.

[john230]

When there is a big steam play, there are 2 groups who are in a good position- the first takers who caused the steam and those that switched sides after the move(often the first takers). Watch out for the buy back when you chase steam, as you can get fooled on which side the pros are really on.

[jjgold]

Predicting Line Movement is where the skill comes in
If we can do that it would be much easier
Would be nice betting Heat at -5 and it closes -7

[Doc JS]

Does not mean you have an edge

You can bet Knicks -3 and have 10 books and that was best number in afternoon

Player B has one book and at night before tip off bets Knicks -1

Player B has the edge

Line closes -1

in related news...water is wet.

[john230]

Predicting Line Movement is where the skill comes in
If we can do that it would be much easier
Would be nice betting Heat at -5 and it closes -7

Yeah, the Super Bowl total is a good example. Usually Vegas bumps up these totals around 3 points because the public likes overs(Total closed at 51.5 in the regular season matchup). Now it's 55. You wonder is the late money from sharps going to move it down, or will the public play it big on the over. Tough call.

[wantitall4moi]

Vig matters a lot more than the spread does. However the spread will matter, but generaly speaking as long as you are getting a number that makes sense youre going to be fine. But basically all you have to do is pick a winner SU.

Generic NBA results since start of 2000,,,


14417 total games.

SU winners against closers at Pinnacle 11617-2534-266. SU winners against THE BEST possible number 11802-2497-118. Overall SU winners are 80.5% Win rate, 17.5% loss rate, and 1.8% tie rate. With line shopping the numbers go up to 81.8% win rate, 17.3% loss rate, .8% tie rate. So line shopping basically gives you an extra 1.3% win expectation, loss expectation is almost unchanged, but you get a few games that would have pushed into the win column, and somegames that would have lost into the push coulmn. But not an extreme amount. So to do the best you can you have to have alittle bit of both. But if you bet just the closers at -105, and line shopped and had to pay -110 for a 'better' spread. You would have returns of 8956.3 (@ -105) and 9055.3 (@ -110) So basically line shopping got you an extra hundred bucks over 14500 plays.

Obviously you want to get the best spread on the team you play, but since that spread is negated when a dog wins SU then getting the 'best spread' isnt nearly as good as being able to pick a winner in the first place.

Which is why I have always said people who cant pick a winner in a game regardless of the spread dont have a chance at gambling.

In the NFL the results are even more emphatic. As SU winners there are 4059-841-141 ATS. Or 82.8% once you eliminate pushes. Counting pushes they have a 80.5% NON loss rate. SO basically in 5050 games the spread only mattered in about 1000 of them.

[smoke a bowl]

Vig matters a lot more than the spread does. However the spread will matter, but generaly speaking as long as you are getting a number that makes sense youre going to be fine. But basically all you have to do is pick a winner SU.

Generic NBA results since start of 2000,,,


14417 total games.

SU winners against closers at Pinnacle 11617-2534-266. SU winners against THE BEST possible number 11802-2497-118. Overall SU winners are 80.5% Win rate, 17.5% loss rate, and 1.8% tie rate. With line shopping the numbers go up to 81.8% win rate, 17.3% loss rate, .8% tie rate. So line shopping basically gives you an extra 1.3% win expectation, loss expectation is almost unchanged, but you get a few games that would have pushed into the win column, and somegames that would have lost into the push coulmn. But not an extreme amount. So to do the best you can you have to have alittle bit of both. But if you bet just the closers at -105, and line shopped and had to pay -110 for a 'better' spread. You would have returns of 8956.3 (@ -105) and 9055.3 (@ -110) So basically line shopping got you an extra hundred bucks over 14500 plays.

Obviously you want to get the best spread on the team you play, but since that spread is negated when a dog wins SU then getting the 'best spread' isnt nearly as good as being able to pick a winner in the first place.

Which is why I have always said people who cant pick a winner in a game regardless of the spread dont have a chance at gambling.

In the NFL the results are even more emphatic. As SU winners there are 4059-841-141 ATS. Or 82.8% once you eliminate pushes. Counting pushes they have a 80.5% NON loss rate. SO basically in 5050 games the spread only mattered in about 1000 of them.

I am now dumber after reading this.

[FourLengthsClear]

I am now dumber after reading this.

Just pick winners man, the spread doesn't matter!

Wanty just struggles to realise that:

82.8% (the proportion of NFL SU winners that cover the spread)

minus

32.4% (the proportion of dogs that win SU)

is damn close to 50% which is pretty much exactly what you would expect to see

[jjgold]

Many say just bet money lines or match odds as their is better value in all sports

I do not buy it

[wantitall4moi]

Just pick winners man, the spread doesn't matter!

Wanty just struggles to realise that:

82.8% (the proportion of NFL SU winners that cover the spread)

minus

32.4% (the proportion of dogs that win SU)

is damn close to 50% which is pretty much exactly what you would expect to see

Not sure exactly what that means but if guys are playing dogs + the points theyre basically making the worst possible choice. Of course there are obvious subsets that you can work with but for the most part in the NFL any dog from 6.5 down is worth betting on the ML. Even at 7 and 7.5 it is borderline if you get a decent ML price on them.

Basically Dogs that "cover" (lose but by less than the allotted amount of points) for dogs Pk-+7.5 is 458 times out of 2461 games. Thats only 18.6%. If you want to add ushes in then you can add another 93 games which makes a total of 551 (22.4%)

If you look at dogs from 6.5 to PK the numbers are easier to see. They "cover" 337 of 2087 games (16%) they push 72 times thats gets you to 19.6%.

Obviously the vast majority of those pushes come in games lined at +/- 3. So if you take that subset out is makes betting dogs on the ML an even more obvious approach.

But for that particular subset of games CLOSING +3 at Pinnacle the results are 466 games where the dog lost SU, dogs record ATS is 34-374-58. So COVERING +3 is a very small chance. (7.3%). So basically guys betting +3 are begging for a push and dont have the balls to lay -3 or bet the dog ML. But laying -3 is going to get a better result since -3 is a push both ways. At least in games where the team/favorite won SU.

So no matter how you slice it if you can pick a winner SU in the long run youre better off not worrying about the spread at all.

As in if you like a +5.5 dog youre just as well off betting the ML as you are the spread since if they cover theyre more than likely going to win SU.

[yisman]

Obvious Thread is Obvious.

As long as your bets are +even nothing else matters. You don't even have to pick winners. At least that's my understanding of it.

Very sharp first post.

You quoted yourself to call yourself sharp?

[FourLengthsClear]

Not sure exactly what that means but if guys are playing dogs + the points theyre basically making the worst possible choice. Of course there are obvious subsets that you can work with but for the most part in the NFL any dog from 6.5 down is worth betting on the ML. Even at 7 and 7.5 it is borderline if you get a decent ML price on them.

Basically Dogs that "cover" (lose but by less than the allotted amount of points) for dogs Pk-+7.5 is 458 times out of 2461 games. Thats only 18.6%. If you want to add ushes in then you can add another 93 games which makes a total of 551 (22.4%)

If you look at dogs from 6.5 to PK the numbers are easier to see. They "cover" 337 of 2087 games (16%) they push 72 times thats gets you to 19.6%.

Obviously the vast majority of those pushes come in games lined at +/- 3. So if you take that subset out is makes betting dogs on the ML an even more obvious approach.

But for that particular subset of games CLOSING +3 at Pinnacle the results are 466 games where the dog lost SU, dogs record ATS is 34-374-58. So COVERING +3 is a very small chance. (7.3%). So basically guys betting +3 are begging for a push and dont have the balls to lay -3 or bet the dog ML. But laying -3 is going to get a better result since -3 is a push both ways. At least in games where the team/favorite won SU.

So no matter how you slice it if you can pick a winner SU in the long run youre better off not worrying about the spread at all.

As in if you like a +5.5 dog youre just as well off betting the ML as you are the spread since if they cover theyre more than likely going to win SU.

Very good but I already told you most of that in this thread.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/1515001-nfl-home-teams-now-6-0-ats-playoffs.html

As a whole since 1990:

33.4% of underdogs won SU and by definition also cover the spread.
51.3% of underdogs covered the spread

66.6% of favourites won SU
48.7% of favourites covered the spread

The contention that if you like the underdog, you should bet them SU doesn't hold up overall but it does better in recent years and would have been slightly profitable (based on closing lines) betting blind over a narrow spread range which I will keep to myself!

yeah i mentioned that in another thread in think tank. i figured if you narrow it down to the smaller spreads, it is probably around 5 or less on the moneyline it would be profitable.

i didn't get any response so i figured i was on to something. that is how you tell if your idea is good in the think tank. there is no response calling you an idiot.

edit: i would guess the area would be profitable would be from 3 to 6.5

LOL. Suffice to say you are not an idiot.
Betting blind like that is not my thing but it's good information to have nonetheless.

[Jaug]

JJ if you get the best line and you are unlucky with the line move you still made good bet. You can't predict market moves but you can predict EV.

[wantitall4moi]

1990 is too far back only go back to the 2 pt conversion reinstatement.

Your numbers are basically against generic closers which can be skewed a lot. I have 5 databases I can look at and theyre up to 3-4% in extremes on results. Which is obviously a lot and too much to use as a guideline.

Obviously SU winners are never going to change, what will change is when the fav covers. I can skew it around with best available at all books and give dogs a slight edge in 'covering' but for the most part betting a dog to cover that you dont think has a chance to win SU is just bad business.

NBA is a little different but overall the percentages are the same there are just alot more games in the NBA than in the NFL. NCAA is really the spot where you can 'safely' bet dogs to 'cover' a spread simply because the numbers in those games, both hoops and foots are a lot more extreme.

[yisman]

Anyone that could accurately predict line moves a large percentage of the time would get rich easily, just as you'd get rich easily if you could accurately predict games a large percentage of the time. People simply aren't able to do it, though.

[Sam Odom]

You junior posters wouldnt understand...

But , this may be JJ's sharpest post ever