Week 16 Vegas NFL Power Rankings
By RJ Bell/Chad Millman
ESPN Insider
Each week, an elite group of bookmakers and professional bettors provide Pregame.com with their private power rankings. These numbers literally influence the worldwide sports-betting market -- and together form the Vegas Rankings. Four categories convey what the "experts in the desert" truthfully think about the teams:
TRUE POWER: How good Vegas thinks a team really is.
HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE: The value of each team's home field.
BETTOR BIAS: How many points the public overvalues (positive numbers) or undervalues (negative numbers) a team.
POINT-SPREAD POWER: The combination of True Power and Bettor Bias.
To calculate the projected winner of any matchup:
Take True Power (home team), ADD Home-Field Advantage and SUBTRACT True Power (away team).
To calculate the projected point spread of any matchup:
Replace the True Power with Point-Spread Power (which includes Bettor Bias, just like the actual Vegas line does).
Biggest Improvement -- TRUE POWER
Philadelphia Eagles
San Diego Chargers
Seattle Seahawks
Washington Redskins
Kansas City Chiefs
Biggest Drop -- TRUE POWER
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Minnesota Vikings
Buffalo Bills
Chicago Bears
New York Giants
Here are the Week 16 Vegas NFL Rankings:
Pregame.com's Week 15 Vegas NFL Rankings
<table><thead><tr><th>Rank</th><th>Team</th><th>Home-Field</th><th>True Power</th><th>Bettor Bias</th><th>Point-Spread Power</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>1</td><td>Green Bay Packers</td><td>4</td><td>100</td><td>1</td><td>101</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>2</td><td>New England Patriots</td><td>3.5</td><td>97.5</td><td>1</td><td>98.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>3</td><td>New Orleans Saints</td><td>3.5</td><td>97</td><td>0.5</td><td>97.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-4</td><td>Pittsburgh Steelers</td><td>2.5</td><td>95</td><td>0.5</td><td>95.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-4</td><td>San Francisco 49ers</td><td>3</td><td>95</td><td>0</td><td>95</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>6</td><td>Baltimore Ravens</td><td>3</td><td>94.5</td><td>0</td><td>94.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>7</td><td>Atlanta Falcons</td><td>3</td><td>92.5</td><td>0</td><td>92.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-8</td><td>Dallas Cowboys</td><td>2.5</td><td>92</td><td>0</td><td>92</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-8</td><td>Philadelphia Eagles</td><td>2.5</td><td>92</td><td>0</td><td>92</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>10</td><td>New York Jets</td><td>3</td><td>91.5</td><td>0</td><td>91.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>11</td><td>New York Giants</td><td>3</td><td>91</td><td>0</td><td>91</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-12</td><td>Detroit Lions</td><td>3</td><td>90.5</td><td>0</td><td>90.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-12</td><td>San Diego Chargers</td><td>2.5</td><td>90.5</td><td>0</td><td>90.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-14</td><td>Houston Texans</td><td>3</td><td>90</td><td>0</td><td>90</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-14</td><td>Miami Dolphins</td><td>2</td><td>90</td><td>0</td><td>90</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>16</td><td>Denver Broncos</td><td>2.5</td><td>89</td><td>0</td><td>89</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-17</td><td>Arizona Cardinals</td><td>2.5</td><td>88.5</td><td>0</td><td>88.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-17</td><td>Cincinnati Bengals</td><td>3</td><td>88.5</td><td>0</td><td>88.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>19</td><td>Oakland Raiders</td><td>2.5</td><td>88</td><td>0</td><td>88</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-20</td><td>Tennessee Titans</td><td>2.5</td><td>87.5</td><td>0</td><td>87.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-20</td><td>Chicago Bears</td><td>2.5</td><td>87.5</td><td>-0.5</td><td>87</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-22</td><td>Carolina Panthers</td><td>3</td><td>87</td><td>0</td><td>87</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-22</td><td>Seattle Seahawks</td><td>3</td><td>87</td><td>0</td><td>87</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>24</td><td>Washington Redskins</td><td>3</td><td>86</td><td>0</td><td>86</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-25</td><td>Kansas City Chiefs</td><td>2.5</td><td>84.5</td><td>0</td><td>84.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-25</td><td>Minnesota Vikings</td><td>3</td><td>84.5</td><td>-0.5</td><td>84</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-27</td><td>Buffalo Bills</td><td>3</td><td>84</td><td>0</td><td>84</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-27</td><td>Cleveland Browns</td><td>2.5</td><td>84</td><td>0</td><td>84</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-27</td><td>Tampa Bay Buccaneers</td><td>2</td><td>84</td><td>-0.5</td><td>83.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>30</td><td>Jacksonville Jaguars</td><td>2</td><td>82</td><td>0</td><td>82</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>31</td><td>Indianapolis Colts</td><td>2</td><td>81</td><td>-0.5</td><td>80.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>32</td><td>St. Louis Rams</td><td>2</td><td>80</td><td>-0.5</td><td>79.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td colspan="6">Week-to-Week Injuries (adjustments NOT yet made above)</td></tr><tr class="last"><td colspan="6">Colt McCoy: 1 point</td></tr><tr class="last"><td colspan="6">Matt Forte: 1 point</td></tr></tbody></table>
The following injuries are season-ending, and adjustments have already been made to True Power for: Texans minus-3 (Matt Schaub); Chiefs minus-2 (Matt Cassel); Bears minus-3 (Jay Cutler).
Most Overrated and Underrated Teams
<table style="WIDTH: 290px"><thead><tr><th>Wins</th><th style="WIDTH: 100px">Best Team (Rk)</th><th style="WIDTH: 100px">Worst Team (Rk)</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>10 or more</td><td>Packers (1)</td><td>Texans (t-14)</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>8 or 9 wins</td><td>Falcons (7)</td><td>Bengals (t-17)</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>6 or 7 Wins</td><td>Eagles (8)</td><td>Seahawks (t-22)</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>5 or less</td><td>Dolphins (t-14)</td><td>Rams (32)</td></tr></tbody></table>
All good bettors know that a team's records against the spread and straight up aren't equal. For example, the New England Patriots are 11-3 SU but only 8-6 ATS; the Carolina Panthers are 5-9 SU but 8-5-1 ATS. To the right are the teams ranked best and worst by the Vegas Rankings, grouped by SU victories. In parentheses is the team's overall True Power ranking.
Projected Spreads
We projected the Week 16 NFL spreads using Point-Spread Power and compared them to the current lines. The table is below, which shows you where Vegas pros think the value lies. This week, the sharps think there is value with the Patriots, Vikings, Saints and more.
Projected Week 16 NFL Spreads
Lines displayed from home team's perspective. True Power projects margin of victory. Point-Spread Power projects point spread.
<table><thead><tr><th>Home</th><th>Road</th><th>Open</th><th>True Power</th><th>Point-Spread Power</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>Colts</td><td>Texans</td><td>+6</td><td>+7</td><td>+7.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Chiefs</td><td>Raiders</td><td>-1</td><td>+1</td><td>+1</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Bills</td><td>Broncos</td><td>+3</td><td>+2</td><td>+2</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Titans</td><td>Jaguars</td><td>-7</td><td>-8</td><td>-8</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Bengals</td><td>Cardinals</td><td>-4</td><td>-3</td><td>-3</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Patriots</td><td>Dolphins</td><td>-9.5</td><td>-11</td><td>-12</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Ravens</td><td>Browns</td><td>-13</td><td>-13.5</td><td>-13.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Jets**</td><td>Giants</td><td>-3</td><td>-2</td><td>-2</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Redskins</td><td>Vikings</td><td>-6.5</td><td>-4.5</td><td>-5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Panthers</td><td>Bucs</td><td>-7.5</td><td>-6</td><td>-6.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Steelers</td><td>Rams</td><td>NL</td><td>-17.5</td><td>-18.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Lions</td><td>Chargers</td><td>-2.5</td><td>-3</td><td>-3</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Seahawks</td><td>49ers</td><td>+3</td><td>+5</td><td>+5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Cowboys</td><td>Eagles</td><td>-2</td><td>-2.5</td><td>-2.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Packers***</td><td>Bears</td><td>-11.5</td><td>-16.5</td><td>-18</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Saints</td><td>Falcons</td><td>-6.5</td><td>-8</td><td>-8.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td colspan="5">* Injury adjustment included in projections (if injury adjustment is not included, and player is later determined to be out, add adjustment to projections) </td></tr><tr class="last"><td colspan="5">** Jets 1.5-point home-field advantage over Giants (ticket allotment, etc.)</td></tr><tr class="last"><td colspan="5">*** Consider uncertainty about starters' playing time</td></tr></tbody></table>
By RJ Bell/Chad Millman
ESPN Insider
Each week, an elite group of bookmakers and professional bettors provide Pregame.com with their private power rankings. These numbers literally influence the worldwide sports-betting market -- and together form the Vegas Rankings. Four categories convey what the "experts in the desert" truthfully think about the teams:
TRUE POWER: How good Vegas thinks a team really is.
HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE: The value of each team's home field.
BETTOR BIAS: How many points the public overvalues (positive numbers) or undervalues (negative numbers) a team.
POINT-SPREAD POWER: The combination of True Power and Bettor Bias.
To calculate the projected winner of any matchup:
Take True Power (home team), ADD Home-Field Advantage and SUBTRACT True Power (away team).
To calculate the projected point spread of any matchup:
Replace the True Power with Point-Spread Power (which includes Bettor Bias, just like the actual Vegas line does).
Biggest Improvement -- TRUE POWER
Philadelphia Eagles
San Diego Chargers
Seattle Seahawks
Washington Redskins
Kansas City Chiefs
Biggest Drop -- TRUE POWER
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Minnesota Vikings
Buffalo Bills
Chicago Bears
New York Giants
Here are the Week 16 Vegas NFL Rankings:
Pregame.com's Week 15 Vegas NFL Rankings
<table><thead><tr><th>Rank</th><th>Team</th><th>Home-Field</th><th>True Power</th><th>Bettor Bias</th><th>Point-Spread Power</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>1</td><td>Green Bay Packers</td><td>4</td><td>100</td><td>1</td><td>101</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>2</td><td>New England Patriots</td><td>3.5</td><td>97.5</td><td>1</td><td>98.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>3</td><td>New Orleans Saints</td><td>3.5</td><td>97</td><td>0.5</td><td>97.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-4</td><td>Pittsburgh Steelers</td><td>2.5</td><td>95</td><td>0.5</td><td>95.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-4</td><td>San Francisco 49ers</td><td>3</td><td>95</td><td>0</td><td>95</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>6</td><td>Baltimore Ravens</td><td>3</td><td>94.5</td><td>0</td><td>94.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>7</td><td>Atlanta Falcons</td><td>3</td><td>92.5</td><td>0</td><td>92.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-8</td><td>Dallas Cowboys</td><td>2.5</td><td>92</td><td>0</td><td>92</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-8</td><td>Philadelphia Eagles</td><td>2.5</td><td>92</td><td>0</td><td>92</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>10</td><td>New York Jets</td><td>3</td><td>91.5</td><td>0</td><td>91.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>11</td><td>New York Giants</td><td>3</td><td>91</td><td>0</td><td>91</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-12</td><td>Detroit Lions</td><td>3</td><td>90.5</td><td>0</td><td>90.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-12</td><td>San Diego Chargers</td><td>2.5</td><td>90.5</td><td>0</td><td>90.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-14</td><td>Houston Texans</td><td>3</td><td>90</td><td>0</td><td>90</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-14</td><td>Miami Dolphins</td><td>2</td><td>90</td><td>0</td><td>90</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>16</td><td>Denver Broncos</td><td>2.5</td><td>89</td><td>0</td><td>89</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-17</td><td>Arizona Cardinals</td><td>2.5</td><td>88.5</td><td>0</td><td>88.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-17</td><td>Cincinnati Bengals</td><td>3</td><td>88.5</td><td>0</td><td>88.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>19</td><td>Oakland Raiders</td><td>2.5</td><td>88</td><td>0</td><td>88</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-20</td><td>Tennessee Titans</td><td>2.5</td><td>87.5</td><td>0</td><td>87.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-20</td><td>Chicago Bears</td><td>2.5</td><td>87.5</td><td>-0.5</td><td>87</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-22</td><td>Carolina Panthers</td><td>3</td><td>87</td><td>0</td><td>87</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-22</td><td>Seattle Seahawks</td><td>3</td><td>87</td><td>0</td><td>87</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>24</td><td>Washington Redskins</td><td>3</td><td>86</td><td>0</td><td>86</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-25</td><td>Kansas City Chiefs</td><td>2.5</td><td>84.5</td><td>0</td><td>84.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-25</td><td>Minnesota Vikings</td><td>3</td><td>84.5</td><td>-0.5</td><td>84</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-27</td><td>Buffalo Bills</td><td>3</td><td>84</td><td>0</td><td>84</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-27</td><td>Cleveland Browns</td><td>2.5</td><td>84</td><td>0</td><td>84</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-27</td><td>Tampa Bay Buccaneers</td><td>2</td><td>84</td><td>-0.5</td><td>83.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>30</td><td>Jacksonville Jaguars</td><td>2</td><td>82</td><td>0</td><td>82</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>31</td><td>Indianapolis Colts</td><td>2</td><td>81</td><td>-0.5</td><td>80.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>32</td><td>St. Louis Rams</td><td>2</td><td>80</td><td>-0.5</td><td>79.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td colspan="6">Week-to-Week Injuries (adjustments NOT yet made above)</td></tr><tr class="last"><td colspan="6">Colt McCoy: 1 point</td></tr><tr class="last"><td colspan="6">Matt Forte: 1 point</td></tr></tbody></table>
The following injuries are season-ending, and adjustments have already been made to True Power for: Texans minus-3 (Matt Schaub); Chiefs minus-2 (Matt Cassel); Bears minus-3 (Jay Cutler).
Most Overrated and Underrated Teams
<table style="WIDTH: 290px"><thead><tr><th>Wins</th><th style="WIDTH: 100px">Best Team (Rk)</th><th style="WIDTH: 100px">Worst Team (Rk)</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>10 or more</td><td>Packers (1)</td><td>Texans (t-14)</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>8 or 9 wins</td><td>Falcons (7)</td><td>Bengals (t-17)</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>6 or 7 Wins</td><td>Eagles (8)</td><td>Seahawks (t-22)</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>5 or less</td><td>Dolphins (t-14)</td><td>Rams (32)</td></tr></tbody></table>
All good bettors know that a team's records against the spread and straight up aren't equal. For example, the New England Patriots are 11-3 SU but only 8-6 ATS; the Carolina Panthers are 5-9 SU but 8-5-1 ATS. To the right are the teams ranked best and worst by the Vegas Rankings, grouped by SU victories. In parentheses is the team's overall True Power ranking.
Projected Spreads
We projected the Week 16 NFL spreads using Point-Spread Power and compared them to the current lines. The table is below, which shows you where Vegas pros think the value lies. This week, the sharps think there is value with the Patriots, Vikings, Saints and more.
Projected Week 16 NFL Spreads
Lines displayed from home team's perspective. True Power projects margin of victory. Point-Spread Power projects point spread.
<table><thead><tr><th>Home</th><th>Road</th><th>Open</th><th>True Power</th><th>Point-Spread Power</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>Colts</td><td>Texans</td><td>+6</td><td>+7</td><td>+7.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Chiefs</td><td>Raiders</td><td>-1</td><td>+1</td><td>+1</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Bills</td><td>Broncos</td><td>+3</td><td>+2</td><td>+2</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Titans</td><td>Jaguars</td><td>-7</td><td>-8</td><td>-8</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Bengals</td><td>Cardinals</td><td>-4</td><td>-3</td><td>-3</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Patriots</td><td>Dolphins</td><td>-9.5</td><td>-11</td><td>-12</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Ravens</td><td>Browns</td><td>-13</td><td>-13.5</td><td>-13.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Jets**</td><td>Giants</td><td>-3</td><td>-2</td><td>-2</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Redskins</td><td>Vikings</td><td>-6.5</td><td>-4.5</td><td>-5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Panthers</td><td>Bucs</td><td>-7.5</td><td>-6</td><td>-6.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Steelers</td><td>Rams</td><td>NL</td><td>-17.5</td><td>-18.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Lions</td><td>Chargers</td><td>-2.5</td><td>-3</td><td>-3</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Seahawks</td><td>49ers</td><td>+3</td><td>+5</td><td>+5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Cowboys</td><td>Eagles</td><td>-2</td><td>-2.5</td><td>-2.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Packers***</td><td>Bears</td><td>-11.5</td><td>-16.5</td><td>-18</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Saints</td><td>Falcons</td><td>-6.5</td><td>-8</td><td>-8.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td colspan="5">* Injury adjustment included in projections (if injury adjustment is not included, and player is later determined to be out, add adjustment to projections) </td></tr><tr class="last"><td colspan="5">** Jets 1.5-point home-field advantage over Giants (ticket allotment, etc.)</td></tr><tr class="last"><td colspan="5">*** Consider uncertainty about starters' playing time</td></tr></tbody></table>