Falcons -11 should cover pretty easily

[Pin Fish]

Dirty Birds.........by 13.............they know they have to kep winning....last weks 2nd half comebac on the road said it all.......much better home team.....Jags horrid on the road........Last weeks game vs Bucs is deceptive....a bottom dweller team out of any playoff contention..is a wholedifferent ballgame then a team fighting for a playoff berth at home......I belive Gabberts only onther dome game was against lowly Colts..fans / noise will be much different especially on a weekday nationally televised game......andwho do you want yuour $$$$$$ riding with Matty Ice or Gabbert

[jjgold]

I might poke Atlanta in 1st half , who knows they could let up or pull starters and Jax gets a backdoor cover

[Serbone]

I don't give a fukk what the public is on... sometimes I'm with them... sometimes I'm against them. Could care less about the public, or the labels *sharps* and *squares*... it's all about winning.

Dogs or favorites... makes no difference to me.

One thing's for sure... I'm definitely sharper than you.

Hey, at least I provide writeups, data, info and make a case for or against a team with motivation, QB's, injuries, turf, W-L, weather, O, D, all of that. Try to help out, get discussion going to find out from others, too. It helps.
WTF do you do? Do you help?
Are you one of those douches that just criticizes others?
Or one of those douches that lobs out "New England -6 is a LOCK", with no writeup?
Which kind are you?
(62% is on the Falcons now at Sportsbook Spy... 11:35 central time... you said 68% a few days ago, did not state your source... and, this means NOTHING)

[kcDdegenerate]

I'm a Falcons fan and I am taking the 13...No way they cover 13

[BIGDAY]

Line keeps moving...

[letsgo]

I'm a Falcons fan and I am taking the 13...No way they cover 13

Usually fans of a certain team are the worse people to get betting advice from.

[BiGTonyHAHA]

according to sportsbookspy.com 62% has atlanta. jacksonville has the 4th ranked defense in the nfl. thats right 4th atlanta is 14th. this is going by ypg. by ppg jacksonville gives up 19ppg and atlanta gives up 20ppg. teams are also averaging only 36% on 3rd downs against jacksonville i can see an under here. so what makes this an easy cover? and if mike smith was so vanilla he wouldnt of went for it on 4th down against the saints at home a few weeks ago.

[kcDdegenerate]

Usually fans of a certain team are the worse people to get betting advice from.

a fan of a team betting against their team is bad advice?

[letsgo]

a fan of a team betting against their team is bad advice?

Fans of teams aren't the best to get advice from. They don't see things clearly, and can be swayed one way or another due to being a fan of that team.

Most of the time you will see this with the fan betting on their team, but sometimes it goes the other way.

[EastSideLV]

according to sportsbookspy.com 62% has atlanta. jacksonville has the 4th ranked defense in the nfl. thats right 4th atlanta is 14th. this is going by ypg. by ppg jacksonville gives up 19ppg and atlanta gives up 20ppg. teams are also averaging only 36% on 3rd downs against jacksonville i can see an under here. so what makes this an easy cover? and if mike smith was so vanilla he wouldnt of went for it on 4th down against the saints at home a few weeks ago.

yea jacksonville's D is a shell of what it was tho, they are decimated by injuries.. they have looked better by playing some horrible teams as of late, except for maybe the chargers who torched them. Atl should roll here, Gabbert has no receivers and refuses to throw the ball further than 10 yards anyway. Atl stacks the box and is cappable of taking away MJD. Don't see jax scoring more than 10 and ATl should put up 25+ at home.

[mngambler]

damn this line was -11.5 last night and Atl now -13.5 on DSI, no way am I comfortable with Atl. covering 2 td's...jmo, maybe a teaser with the Jags and the under is in order

[BiGTonyHAHA]

you have a good site that gives accurate injury reports eastside?

[Night-Tripper]

Hey, at least I provide writeups, data, info and make a case for or against a team with motivation, QB's, injuries, turf, W-L, weather, O, D, all of that. Try to help out, get discussion going to find out from others, too. It helps.
WTF do you do? Do you help?
Are you one of those douches that just criticizes others?
Or one of those douches that lobs out "New England -6 is a LOCK", with no writeup?
Which kind are you?
(62% is on the Falcons now at Sportsbook Spy... 11:35 central time... you said 68% a few days ago, did not state your source... and, this means NOTHING)

Your write-ups do nothing for me. In fact, I don't need to see anyone's write-up in order to make a betting decision. Anyone who is serious should be checking for injuries, weather, etc... if they're not doing even the most rudimentary handicapping, then shame on them.

WTF I do is, my own handicapping.

You can go back through every single one of my 700+ posts and you will not see one mention of a *lock*... ain't no such thing.

As of THIS moment... 65% of the MONEY is on the Falcons versus the spread/59% of the MONEYLINE wagers are on the Falcons.

I come to this site for entertainment and to pick up some loose odds/ends of info from *locals* that might have access to info that can't/won't be found anywhere else.

As far as me helping... I do not consider OPINIONS to be of any fukking help and for the most part, that's ALL you do is provide YOUR opinion. What I will do (and have done) is offer FACTUAL answers to SPECIFIC questions that a poster may have posed.

PS: Does your azz still hurt from that beating you took on the Steelers versus the Browns? Or, how about that brilliant wager you placed on Southern Mississippi against UAB?

PPSS: It isn't often that I'll even post what I'm playing... superstitious. But, if you oranyone else wants to know... all you/they gotta do is ask. I ain't no fukking genius... but I usually net a tidy profit.

Have a good day...

[doin]

[quote=ttwarrior1;12778060]atlanta rarely covers anything , especially anything over ten

covers.com:
ATL are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games in December.

[ToPHeR]

No one ever scores on Thursday night football. Under every time.

[doin]

dont know about unders but weeks 10 and on, final thursday night score:
14-3
14-31
27-15
13-17
24-17

[ToPHeR]

dont know about unders but weeks 10 and on, final thursday night score:
14-3
14-31
27-15
13-17
24-17

nothing over 48

looks good for teaser players...

[letsgo]

Eagles Seahawks went over not too long ago.

[JoMoney2785]

atlanta hasnt blown anyone out this year..come on guys

[t-wizzle]

-11 looks like a good bet now

[doin]

<table style="width: 700px; height: 218px;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><colgroup><col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:4644;width:95pt" width="127"> </colgroup><tbody><tr style="height:12.75pt" height="17"> <td style="height:12.75pt;width:95pt" height="17" width="127">When Falcons play team Like the Jags, winning record:
31-7 colts, 31-17 panther, 24-14 viking</td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.75pt" height="17"> <td style="height:12.75pt" height="17">When Jags play team Like the Falcons, losing record:
3-32 jets, 10-23 saints, 14-24 texan and 13-20 texans. Beat Titan, 16-14

Average TOTaLS Score: 36.6

And <table style="width: 717px; height: 153px;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><colgroup><col width="127"></colgroup><tbody><tr height="17"> <td style="height:12.75pt;width:95pt" height="17" width="127">Jags are rated 28th POINTS, 32nd YDS, 32nd PASS YDS and 10th RUSH YDS
vs Falcons being 14th, 13th, 10th and 18th respectively
</td> </tr></tbody></table></td> </tr> </tbody></table>

[letsgo]

atlanta hasnt blown anyone out this year..come on guys

They beat Panthers by 14
They beat Colts by 24

[celticsboy]

atl wins by more than 14 easy. free money

[EastSideLV]

you have a good site that gives accurate injury reports eastside?

Just check the local news sites for that city.

Also follow Billysinks weekly threads, they are awesome.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-betting/1446793-injury-reports-week-15-a.html

you can also check the transaction reports on nfl.com.

The jags have a total of 27 people on IR, most from their secondary.

[fergie's balls]

i like this, man gets whole lot of Targets, with Thomas out and trailing most of game not a bad play. Mercedes Lewis will get some attention as only other established target out there, and he tends to disappear when they are losing.

1351 J.Dillard receiving yards over 36½ +100*

[jstblaze]

this is actually one of the more on topic threads I have ever read here!

it is mostly talking about the actual game...

No play for me... Jags could easily lose by more then 14, and they could win the game, because Atl is pretty horrible.

[milkncereal]

i like this, man gets whole lot of Targets, with Thomas out and trailing most of game not a bad play. Mercedes Lewis will get some attention as only other established target out there, and he tends to disappear when they are losing. 1351 J.Dillard receiving yards over 36½ +100*

dudes hit that number once all season, and it was a shitty team the bucs. id stay away from that one.

[Vulcan300]

-11 looks like a good bet now

[Serbone]

Your write-ups do nothing for me. In fact, I don't need to see anyone's write-up in order to make a betting decision. Anyone who is serious should be checking for injuries, weather, etc... if they're not doing even the most rudimentary handicapping, then shame on them.

WTF I do is, my own handicapping.

You can go back through every single one of my 700+ posts and you will not see one mention of a *lock*... ain't no such thing.

As of THIS moment... 65% of the MONEY is on the Falcons versus the spread/59% of the MONEYLINE wagers are on the Falcons.

I come to this site for entertainment and to pick up some loose odds/ends of info from *locals* that might have access to info that can't/won't be found anywhere else.

As far as me helping... I do not consider OPINIONS to be of any fukking help and for the most part, that's ALL you do is provide YOUR opinion. What I will do (and have done) is offer FACTUAL answers to SPECIFIC questions that a poster may have posed.

PS: Does your azz still hurt from that beating you took on the Steelers versus the Browns? Or, how about that brilliant wager you placed on Southern Mississippi against UAB?

PPSS: It isn't often that I'll even post what I'm playing... superstitious. But, if you oranyone else wants to know... all you/they gotta do is ask. I ain't no fukking genius... but I usually net a tidy profit.

Have a good day...

Its 52% on Atlanta now. 5:22pm CST. 48% Atlanta ML. Acording to one source. Who knows what other sources have and what it means? That is my point. You said 68% yesterday, well, 2 hrs to game time my source says 52%. Bet the mortgage with info like that? I think not.
Yes, I've lost some games... but overall have done well, and you know it, since you have tracked some of my plays.
Like you, I do not post full cards with new thread. Jinx. I add on to some threads occasionally. I did two full NFL cards this yr and did not do well.. again, jinx, so I just add to threads.
Good luck worrying about % bet. That is encouraged and talked up by shills to get knuckleheads to think they can beat the system and stimulate action on the other side. Makes amateur newbie idiots think they are betting with the "sharps".
And sure, I believe you, you do great, but never say who you pick.

[Night-Tripper]

Its 52% on Atlanta now. 5:22pm CST. 48% Atlanta ML. Acording to one source. Who knows what other sources have and what it means? That is my point. You said 68% yesterday, well, 2 hrs to game time my source says 52%. Bet the mortgage with info like that? I think not.
Yes, I've lost some games... but overall have done well, and you know it, since you have tracked some of my plays.
Like you, I do not post full cards with new thread. Jinx. I add on to some threads occasionally. I did two full NFL cards this yr and did not do well.. again, jinx, so I just add to threads.
Good luck worrying about % bet. That is encouraged and talked up by shills to get knuckleheads to think they can beat the system and stimulate action on the other side. Makes amateur newbie idiots think they are betting with the "sharps".
And sure, I believe you, you do great, but never say who you pick.

My system is unique... I don't have one. However, I do check line movement versus bet percentage just to make sure there isn't any weird crap going on. As far as using it to make a betting decision... no. I probably look at the same data as most everyone else... I just come to different conclusions.

Browns last Thursday night..
Bronco moneyline when they were down by 10 against the Bears
Giants on spread and moneyline against the Cowboys... jumped on ML again when they were down by 12 in 4th
UAB against Southern Mississippi
Jumped on Jags as soon as the line hit 13.5/will be adding more either before kickoff, or for sure at halftime as well as live betting should things go my way.


This week, I'll be on Montana as soon as the line is posted
Already on Eagles, Giants, Cowboys and Cardinals
Have been on Anteaters against LSU since last night
Will be on Cajuns as soon as line hits 5
Will be betting Utah State
Have yet to decide between Temple and Wyoming, but leaning Wyoming

My pick percentage is for crap. because I like to toss in parlays, live bets and whatever else happens to catch my fancy. Everything I've played this year is posted in my spreadsheet... including the plays that I turn in for friends... win or lose... they're listed.

End of lesson...

[Goat Milk]

gl

following you in my pool.

[t-wizzle]

Good start for the falcons.

[Goat Milk]

blowout

good call. turned off the game

[Vulcan300]

where's all the goombas against this play now? love burials

[ROFLcopter]

Good call, wish I went bigger on this