Falcons -11 should cover pretty easily

[t-wizzle]

I don't know what the public betting percentages are but I would think Jacksonville is getting more action than they previously would have because of their 41-14 win on Sunday. I don't see the Jags hanging in this game though. Atlanta is good at home and I think they win this one by two tds at least. The Jax run defense is solid but they don't have the secondary to defend the Falcons passing attack and I expect Ryan to pick them apart.

In the long run I think Falcons are nothing special but they look like the right side to me Thursday night.

[onacloud]

Easiest bet of my life in this game and that's a NO BET. There's plenty of other good bets to make leave this NFL game alone.

[iifold]

What does public betting % have to do with what is going to happen on the field

[t-wizzle]

What does public betting % have to do with what is going to happen on the field

Everything. In fact, the public is going to start actually playing the games as soon as this week i heard.

[Vulcan300]

falcons are money at the dome and jags also have no one to throw to and have issues with CBs.. public likes what they saw from previous game, agreed. i like it.

not sure how to lean on the over/under, i'm thinking under... if jags have to pound it to jones-drew as their main option.

[t-wizzle]

falcons are money at the dome and jags also have no one to throw to and have issues with CBs.. public likes what they saw from previous game, agreed. i like it.

not sure how to lean on the over/under, i'm thinking under... if jags have to pound it to jones-drew as their main option.

Looks like the Under was dropping which could indicate a blowout.

[DJ Dana]

Look at all the Jags injuries this week, they have a patchwork secondary that Ryan and Co. should feast on. I teased the line down to 9 but I think this has blowout all over it. One thing concerns me: the headcoach for Atl (can't recall his name) is potentially out with a heart ailment. He makes all their offensive calls. Will this be any kind of factor here? I think he's a lousy playcaller (too vanilla) but it could be somewhat of a factor. Still, Falcons roll here.

[Big Bear]

good call.

[oiler]

jaxs finally showed up last week and two weeks in arow doesnt seem likely

[DJ Dana]

BTW: The only reason Jax put up 41 is that the Bucs have officially quit on their coach. I'm keeping an eye on all TB games for this reason, they clearly don't care any more. And yes, I don't expect a repeat in pts this week for Jax when they go to Atl (besides MJD they have nobody to put up pts).

[Vulcan300]

yea people don't know that and assume 11 is too much for the falcons, if you didn't know that about the bucs... well... yea.

[Serbone]

At this point, Atlanta will be a HUGE bet for me. Hate to lay this many points, ever, but this is a spot to do so.
As earlier stated, people see Jax's 41 pts last week... but TB had 7 (SEVEN) turnovers, 14 pts were direct TD fumble runbacks, and TB overall is a mess, DL is shambles, QB Freeman is banged up and, for that matter, "off" anyway, and TB may have quit on their coach. He might be on his way out. SO, Jax victory at home against a team that is falling apart is not that impressive.
With Jax having a not ready for prime time QB, Gabbert, on artificial turf he will get harrassed, he will be good some day but he is very very tentative back there now, the game will be even faster on AT, and their WR corp is inadequate. If they get behind, a sack, a fumble, an INT or two.
Falcons will be primed for stopping the run, Jax's only hope is to get Maurice Jones Drew 150 yards. He won't.
Jax has banged up "D", 2 DL out, LB out, and several DB's out. Rivers ate them alive despite 3 of his OL out, including 2 Pro Bowlers.
WR Jones is back to full speed, THAT IS A KEY, so QB Ryan will have plenty of targets to air it out, go deep in the nice dome, then run the ball when they have the lead, mix in some throws.
The Falcons will be playing with playoff intensity with 5 losses, fighting for a wild card berth, they cannot take this game lightly, while Jax, on the road, with a lame duck coach, may not play 60 minutes.
They lost some games in tough spots against solid clubs, @ Bears, GB, NO in OT, @ Houston; they lost @ TB, though, earlier in the yr, not good, but that was before TB lost its DT's.
Back door covers are always possible, but Jax is not built for that right now, and, again, unlike Detroit and some teams Falcons can run the ball with a lead and keep the cover, especially against a bottom tier QB.
National TV Thursday night home game, I will wait for updates tomorrow but this looks like another rare HUGE play for me.
Falcons!

[Night-Tripper]

I don't know what the public betting percentages are but I would think Jacksonville is getting more action than they previously would have because of their 41-14 win on Sunday. I don't see the Jags hanging in this game though. Atlanta is good at home and I think they win this one by two tds at least. The Jax run defense is solid but they don't have the secondary to defend the Falcons passing attack and I expect Ryan to pick them apart.

In the long run I think Falcons are nothing special but they look like the right side to me Thursday night.

68% of the bets are on the Falcons.

[billysink]

The only thing you want to keep a close eye on here is the health of Jonathon Babineaux. He has been limited in practice and is questionable.

He is the best run stuffer on that line. When him and Jon Abraham are in together that is one of the toughest lines in football to run on. When either one of them miss as was the case earlier in the year, there is a big drop off in production against the run.

Other than that I don't see how Atlanta does not win by 27

[Serbone]

68% of the bets are on the Falcons.

Where?
There are numerous sources.
Unless you have ALL of them and combine them and there is no crossover data, then how do you determine the true %?
AND, is this % of bets or % of dollars?
Do you trust the source? Who knows if ANY of these source are valid!!! THINK!
AND, what if by the time we get to 5 minutes before the game... 68% are on Jacksonville. When do you decide?

I take a peek at this sometimes... but it is not a significant factor in my wagering. It will drive you nuts.
OF COURSE most do not want to bet on Jax this week, or Wash, KC, Indy, SL, and a few others. They want to take the ATTRACTIVE team.
So higher % will be on the other teams, even if the line is jacked up 3 pts to compensate, like they do.
The question is, even if the line is -11 and should be -9 and 68% of the bets are on Falcons... still, will Falcons cover? Win by 12, 21, 30????
Like somebody earlier said, the public does not play the game on the field. And I say, "define the public"... there are numbers out there, but from whom, when, etc.

[ttwarrior1]

atlanta rarely covers anything , especially anything over ten

Turner is banged up and so are the wr's and te and secondary

[rockhardfister]

Look at all the Jags injuries this week, they have a patchwork secondary that Ryan and Co. should feast on. I teased the line down to 9 but I think this has blowout all over it. One thing concerns me: the headcoach for Atl (can't recall his name) is potentially out with a heart ailment. He makes all their offensive calls. Will this be any kind of factor here? I think he's a lousy playcaller (too vanilla) but it could be somewhat of a factor. Still, Falcons roll here.

Mike Smith does not make the offensive call for the Falcons. Mike Mularky does(OC)...and he is pretty vanilla.

[Night-Tripper]

Where?
There are numerous sources.
Unless you have ALL of them and combine them and there is no crossover data, then how do you determine the true %?
AND, is this % of bets or % of dollars?
Do you trust the source? Who knows if ANY of these source are valid!!! THINK!
AND, what if by the time we get to 5 minutes before the game... 68% are on Jacksonville. When do you decide?

I take a peek at this sometimes... but it is not a significant factor in my wagering. It will drive you nuts.
OF COURSE most do not want to bet on Jax this week, or Wash, KC, Indy, SL, and a few others. They want to take the ATTRACTIVE team.
So higher % will be on the other teams, even if the line is jacked up 3 pts to compensate, like they do.
The question is, even if the line is -11 and should be -9 and 68% of the bets are on Falcons... still, will Falcons cover? Win by 12, 21, 30????
Like somebody earlier said, the public does not play the game on the field. And I say, "define the public"... there are numbers out there, but from whom, when, etc.

Dude... your bullsh*t wears me out. Everytime I read one of your posts concerning a game, I automatically fade your ignorant azz.

[rockhardfister]

[QUOTE=ttwarrior1;12778060]atlanta rarely covers anything , especially anything over ten

Turner is banged up and so are the wr's and te and secondary[/QUO

I hope Turner doesnt play and it drives the line down because the reality is that he isnt even the best back on that team. I cant wait to see that offense with Jaquizz Rodgers as the starter. Even Snelling is a better option than Turner IMO. Secondly, what are you talking about that their WR's and Secondary is banged up. Jones, Roddy, Douglas and Gonzo are fine. William Moore just came back to the SS spot and Dominique Franks has filled in nicely the last 2x weeks for Grimes. Plus Kelvin Hayden is back to the nickel position. This secondary is top 10 now and #2 against the run.

[Serbone]

Dude... your bullsh*t wears me out. Everytime I read one of your posts concerning a game, I automatically fade your ignorant azz.

So, what, you fade "the public"?
So, that makes you a "sharp"?

[Serbone]

atlanta rarely covers anything , especially anything over ten

Turner is banged up and so are the wr's and te and secondary

I think they are OK... the DT is a concern... and you dont know if Julio Jones will hold up (ever!)... but most key players are probable and Turner can be replaced by Snelling and Rodgers.
Updates are important as I said in an earlier post, game day there are surprises some times, if there is good or bad news you adjust the size of your wager.

<TABLE border=0 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD class=TSN5 width="10%" align=center>Christopher Owens</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="10%" align=center>CB</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="10%" align=center>12/14/2011</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="50%" align=center>is probable for Thursday's game against Jacksonville</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="50%" align=center>Probable</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="30%" align=center>hand</TD></TR><TR><TD class=TSN5 width="10%" align=center>Ray Edwards</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="10%" align=center>DE</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="10%" align=center>12/14/2011</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="50%" align=center>is probable for Thursday's game against Jacksonville</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="50%" align=center>Probable</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="30%" align=center>neck</TD></TR><TR><TD class=TSN5 width="10%" align=center>Julio Jones</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="10%" align=center>WR</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="10%" align=center>12/14/2011</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="50%" align=center>is probable for Thursday's game against Jacksonville</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="50%" align=center>Probable</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="30%" align=center>back</TD></TR><TR><TD class=TSN5 width="10%" align=center>Michael Turner</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="10%" align=center>RB</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="10%" align=center>12/14/2011</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="50%" align=center>is probable for Thursday's game against Jacksonville</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="50%" align=center>Probable</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="30%" align=center>groin</TD></TR><TR><TD class=TSN5 width="10%" align=center>Will Svitek</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="10%" align=center>T</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="10%" align=center>12/14/2011</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="50%" align=center>is questionable for Thursday's game against Jacksonville</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="50%" align=center>Questionable</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="30%" align=center>groin</TD></TR><TR><TD class=TSN5 width="10%" align=center>Harry Douglas</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="10%" align=center>WR</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="10%" align=center>12/14/2011</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="50%" align=center>is probable for Thursday's game against Jacksonville</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="50%" align=center>Probable</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="30%" align=center>groin</TD></TR><TR><TD class=TSN5 width="10%" align=center>Jonathan Babineaux</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="10%" align=center>DT</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="10%" align=center>12/14/2011</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="50%" align=center>is questionable for Thursday's game against Jacksonville</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="50%" align=center>Questionable</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="30%" align=center>ankle</TD></TR><TR><TD class=TSN5 width="10%" align=center>Stephen Nicholas</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="10%" align=center>LB</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="10%" align=center>12/14/2011</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="50%" align=center>is questionable for Thursday's game against Jacksonville</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="50%" align=center>Questionable</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="30%" align=center>quadricep</TD></TR><TR><TD class=TSN5 width="10%" align=center>Brent Grimes</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="10%" align=center>CB</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="10%" align=center>11/30/2011</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="50%" align=center>is out indefinitely</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="50%" align=center>Out</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="30%" align=center>knee</TD></TR><TR><TD class=TSN5 width="10%" align=center>Kelvin Hayden</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="10%" align=center>CB</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="10%" align=center>12/14/2011</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="50%" align=center>is doubtful for Thursday's game against Jacksonville</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="50%" align=center>Doubtful</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="30%" align=center>toe</TD></TR><TR><TD class=TSN5 width="10%" align=center>Mike Johnson</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="10%" align=center>G</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="10%" align=center>10/25/2011</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="50%" align=center>is on injured reserve</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="50%" align=center>IR</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="30%" align=center>foot</TD></TR><TR><TD class=TSN5 width="10%" align=center>Ovie Mughelli</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="10%" align=center>FB</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="10%" align=center>10/25/2011</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="50%" align=center>is on injured reserve</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="50%" align=center>IR</TD><TD class=TSN5 width="30%" align=center>knee</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

[t-wizzle]

I didn't make the public comment so that it would be a topic of debate. The point is that Atlanta should handle the Jags with ease in this spot.

[jimmy snuka]

jags money line matty ice will choke again

[Tech N9ne]

You've gotta be the dumbest fukker alive to take ATL double digits vs anyone

[jimmy snuka]

You've gotta be the dumbest fukker alive to take ATL double digits vs anyone

d

hes a total dippy jags will win

[unusialsusp5]

atlanta playing this year like a team that is disinterested. they know they can't make it past first round. seems like they're going through the motions with an eye on the calendar. 2 halfway decent breaks and the jags cover in this one.

[Pluthero]

I would like to point out that although the Jags are terrible on the road, the Falcons are not money at home and I'm curious as to where that opinion came from. I'm taking Jacksonville +13.

[Pick'nParlays]

At this point, Atlanta will be a HUGE bet for me. Hate to lay this many points, ever, but this is a spot to do so.
As earlier stated, people see Jax's 41 pts last week... but TB had 7 (SEVEN) turnovers, 14 pts were direct TD fumble runbacks, and TB overall is a mess, DL is shambles, QB Freeman is banged up and, for that matter, "off" anyway, and TB may have quit on their coach. He might be on his way out. SO, Jax victory at home against a team that is falling apart is not that impressive.
With Jax having a not ready for prime time QB, Gabbert, on artificial turf he will get harrassed, he will be good some day but he is very very tentative back there now, the game will be even faster on AT, and their WR corp is inadequate. If they get behind, a sack, a fumble, an INT or two.
Falcons will be primed for stopping the run, Jax's only hope is to get Maurice Jones Drew 150 yards. He won't.
Jax has banged up "D", 2 DL out, LB out, and several DB's out. Rivers ate them alive despite 3 of his OL out, including 2 Pro Bowlers.
WR Jones is back to full speed, THAT IS A KEY, so QB Ryan will have plenty of targets to air it out, go deep in the nice dome, then run the ball when they have the lead, mix in some throws.
The Falcons will be playing with playoff intensity with 5 losses, fighting for a wild card berth, they cannot take this game lightly, while Jax, on the road, with a lame duck coach, may not play 60 minutes.
They lost some games in tough spots against solid clubs, @ Bears, GB, NO in OT, @ Houston; they lost @ TB, though, earlier in the yr, not good, but that was before TB lost its DT's.
Back door covers are always possible, but Jax is not built for that right now, and, again, unlike Detroit and some teams Falcons can run the ball with a lead and keep the cover, especially against a bottom tier QB.
National TV Thursday night home game, I will wait for updates tomorrow but this looks like another rare HUGE play for me.
Falcons!

well said

[hitman09]

yeah, well said, it's interesting to read, not to lay $$$, usually fade all the plays from those kind of articles.

[t-wizzle]

Line is now 12.5

[Believeland]

I teased 6 falcons are -6 and under 48.5 for me

[Night-Tripper]

So, what, you fade "the public"?
So, that makes you a "sharp"?

I don't give a fukk what the public is on... sometimes I'm with them... sometimes I'm against them. Could care less about the public, or the labels *sharps* and *squares*... it's all about winning.

Dogs or favorites... makes no difference to me.

One thing's for sure... I'm definitely sharper than you.

[neverstoppers23]

I tend to agree with you, but ATL started off very slow last week. They need to be on their game.

[robinhood]

I kind of see this as a similar game that we saw with the Chargers vs Jags. I see about the same points also. Falcons should open up their offense more with a weak Jags secondary and Ryan is playing really well right now.

[blaze4g]

its at -14 now on 5dimes. I just did a 2 team 6 pt teaser, jags +20 and under 48.5