Value bet prop at Betonline

[sharpcat]

Horse props

Will rapid redux win 20 races in 2011

Yes -250
No +195


No +195

Rapid redux is running for his 19th consecutive win of 2011 in race 6 today at Laurel Park looking to tie the record of most wins in a year currently held by Citation. At +195 not only would rapid redux need to have an 80% or better chance of winning each race he also still needs to find a second race to run in the next 18 days.

Bets close at 2:00 p.m. est.

Merry Christmas!

[JakeLc]

if he wins today they will put a race together for him if there isn't a race already in the condition book that is appealing to his connections

[ehp6737]

If you win this prop, you will get paid by BetOnline.......

In a timely manner +1200
Slow payed till it hurts -1520

Number of phone calls/emails that it will take to bitch at them before you receive a payout

9 or more -120
less than 9 +100

[ehp6737]

if he wins today they will put a race together for him if there isn't a race already in the condition book that is appealing to his connections

The meet at Laurel closes this Saturday, Pimlico doesnt open till April. So he'll have to go out of state.

[JakeLc]

They have various other tracks to choose from

[ehp6737]

They have various other tracks to choose from

Not many options. They're not going to take this horse to a real circuit track such as Aqueduct.

So that leaves....

Delaware closed
Colonial closed
Mountianeer closes the 23rd
Pimilico closed
Laurel closes the 17th
PARX open
Penn National open
Charlestown open

I'd be inclined to take the no +195 option just based on the lack of options in the next few weeks and finding a spot for him. Who's to say the owners are worried about the record for consecutive wins in a year and running him right back anyway? Maybe their more concerned with preserving the overall streak.

[JakeLc]

The owner has clearly stated they want the record.As I posted earlier, they would put a race together for him if there isn't one already in the book

[exstatman]

It will be easy to fill a $5k Starter Allowance race at CT or Penn. Of course, once it fills, the main competition will scratch leaving a 4-5 horse field with Rapid Redux as the controlling speed.

[mikemca]

The meet at Laurel closes this Saturday, Pimlico doesnt open till April. So he'll have to go out of state.

He has run at Mountaineer plenty of times and Charles Town might be his favorite track.

If I was going to bet this I would 100% take the +195 and say No.There are a couple horses running in his race today that can beat him if they run their race.Awesome Rythm,No Brakes, and Shamroge all have races that beat him.Even First Nite could win with a new top.The only problem is that Rapid Redux has won so many of his races being geared down that its hard to tell if those horses best efforts match up with his.

[sharpcat]

The owner has clearly stated they want the record.As I posted earlier, they would put a race together for him if there isn't one already in the book

So what would you say is an accurate percentage of the chances of Rapid redux not only winning this race and remaining healthy enough to run another race in 18 days or less but also finding a second race to run in the next 18 days during the holiday season and winning that race also?

I don't really care about he can/he can't negativity I only care about numbers and I say there is better than a 34% chance that he does not win this race and find another race to run and win.

[JakeLc]

If you're betting the no because you think he can get beat that is one thing. If you're betting the no because you think there won't be a race for him you're throwing your money away. If they do have to put up an extra and hustle it to get it filled, there is a good chance it would come up as one of the weakest fields he has had to face yet.

[trytrytry]

it will be at PENN 4 horse race...he wins today and that one..history and a win on the betonline prop..but at 2.30 $2.20 u could just go that way

[str]

In looking at both C.T. and Penn for starter handicaps, there are none written in the book. Having said that, C.T. writes 8 extras per night and Penn writes 6. Being as this would be a great PR play for either track, if the horse needed the race, it would be written and trust me, it WILL fill. Racing Secretary's have a way of persuading trainers to enter in order to fill a race if management wants it to fill even though you have no chance of winning. It's called fill the race or lose your stalls. Also known as, fill the race and I will get you 5 MORE stalls.
Happens all the time.

[JakeLc]

There's one in the book at Parx on the 28th but I agree it would very likely be CT or PEN

[Boscoe]

currently:

yes -450
no +350

[sharpcat]

currently:

yes -450
no +350

This is a completely different bet.

The bet I made was dependent on the outcome of 2 events where this bet is dependent on the outcome of only one event. Obviously had we known before hand that Rapid Redux had a 100% probability to win todays race it would be safe to say that I made a bad bet, but if we knew before hand that there was a 100% probability that he win the race as a Kelley bettor I would have risked 100% of my bankroll on Rapid Redux to win no matter what the odds.

........................................ ........................................ ........................................ ....................

With that said I am still content with the original bet as RR closed at 1-5 which means that my original assessment was correct by assuming that RR likely had less than an 83% chance of winning each individual leg of the parlay. Considering that at odds of 1-5 and assuming a close to efficient betting market the market was saying that at best RR only had an 83% chance to win.

Assuming that RR runs another race at odds of 1-5 or better we can assume that the probability of winning 2 races would be roughly 69.39% (.8333 * .8333) not considering the possibility of injury or decision to not push the horse to run another race within 18 days. At +195 my original wager needed to have a 33.9% chance of winning in order to have been a fair price meaning that I only needed for there to be a 5% probability that RR not run another race in 2012 (1 - (.6939 - (.6939 * .05)) = 1 - (.6939 - .034695)= 1 - .659205 = .340795 I think it is safe to say that prior to the todays race that there was at least a 5% chance that RR would face possible injury or simply just choose not to run another race in 2011.

This works out great for everyone boys

-I am still confident that at the time of my wager I made a good bet considering the information we had at the time the bet was placed and even with todays loss my wager is still alive.

-After todays win there is still room for everyone to root for me to lose and come back in the end and say "I told you that a +200 dog would not win".

[u21c3f6]

Sharpcat, what do you think the odds would have been if he lost today?

Joe.

[Boscoe]

This is a completely different bet.

The bet I made was dependent on the outcome of 2 events where this bet is dependent on the outcome of only one event. Obviously had we known before hand that Rapid Redux had a 100% probability to win todays race it would be safe to say that I made a bad bet, but if we knew before hand that there was a 100% probability that he win the race as a Kelley bettor I would have risked 100% of my bankroll on Rapid Redux to win no matter what the odds.

........................................ ........................................ ........................................ ....................

With that said I am still content with the original bet as RR closed at 1-5 which means that my original assessment was correct by assuming that RR likely had less than an 83% chance of winning each individual leg of the parlay. Considering that at odds of 1-5 and assuming a close to efficient betting market the market was saying that at best RR only had an 83% chance to win.

Assuming that RR runs another race at odds of 1-5 or better we can assume that the probability of winning 2 races would be roughly 69.39% (.8333 * .8333) not considering the possibility of injury or decision to not push the horse to run another race within 18 days. At +195 my original wager needed to have a 33.9% chance of winning in order to have been a fair price meaning that I only needed for there to be a 5% probability that RR not run another race in 2012 (1 - (.6939 - (.6939 * .05)) = 1 - (.6939 - .034695)= 1 - .659205 = .340795 I think it is safe to say that prior to the todays race that there was at least a 5% chance that RR would face possible injury or simply just choose not to run another race in 2011.

This works out great for everyone boys

-I am still confident that at the time of my wager I made a good bet considering the information we had at the time the bet was placed and even with todays loss my wager is still alive.

-After todays win there is still room for everyone to root for me to lose and come back in the end and say "I told you that a +200 dog would not win".

gotcha.... i know nothing about horses. thought it might be something to jump on. good luck with your bet.

[sharpcat]

Sharpcat, what do you think the odds would have been if he lost today?

Joe.

Joe,

If he lost today the bet would have been a lock because there is absolutely no chance that a horse is going to run 3 races within 19 days, therefore he would not be able to win 2 more races nor would he have reason to compete without the consecutive wins. Average turnaround time for a horse is 3 weeks, no way an owner runs a horse 3 times in 19 days unless he plans on taking him to the glue factory. 100,000,000-1 IDK

If your asking what fair odds on him to lose today would have been +164 (37.75%) would have been the fair market price if you simply deducted the tracks take of 33.8755199% using the closing odds, although with a 33%+ takeout it would be a stretch to consider that accurate but I would agree that the odds of him losing today were in the range of 35-40% which was the range I capped it at (no need to be accurate as the max wager on this prop was far less than any wager Kelley would have recommended me).




Hopefully I answered your question because SBR only allows me 1 post per every 6,000 seconds so I won't be back for another hour and forty minutes.

[str]

Sharpcat,

Having the 1 post at Laurel , with speed, and going 1 1/16 was a tremendous advantage for the horse. I can't think of any post position on the east coast that favors a speed horse more than the 1 going that exact distance .
Having said that, you do have the weather this time of year as a possible help to offset that brutally unfair post in his last race. Typically , C.T. losses an average of about 8 cards per winter ( my best guess but probably close). Not so sure about Penn. but having driven to both many times the roads and terrain are similar. It is not the track condition that usually calls the card but the road conditions for the people trying to get there. So the local police are usually consulted. Any worries of icy roads and such could help you out. Because of the 48-72 hour entry draws, that might play in your favor as well. Also, if he runs an exact mile at Penn. an outside post will hurt him if the field holds up but I would not count on that. State vets allow scratches of older horses in these types of races especially on off tracks all the time. With management wanting a win , it would be no problem. Still , all and all, your bet does have a better chance than most think.
I wish you luck with your bet.

[robmpink]

Can't he race at Thistle, River or Buelah? Whichever one of them is running.

[Br0nxer]

Joe,

If he lost today the bet would have been a lock because there is absolutely no chance that a horse is going to run 3 races within 19 days, therefore he would not be able to win 2 more races nor would he have reason to compete without the consecutive wins. Average turnaround time for a horse is 3 weeks, no way an owner runs a horse 3 times in 19 days unless he plans on taking him to the glue factory. 100,000,000-1 IDK

If your asking what fair odds on him to lose today would have been +164 (37.75%) would have been the fair market price if you simply deducted the tracks take of 33.8755199% using the closing odds, although with a 33%+ takeout it would be a stretch to consider that accurate but I would agree that the odds of him losing today were in the range of 35-40% which was the range I capped it at (no need to be accurate as the max wager on this prop was far less than any wager Kelley would have recommended me).




Hopefully I answered your question because SBR only allows me 1 post per every 6,000 seconds so I won't be back for another hour and forty minutes.

[jw]

no way an owner runs a horse 3 times in 19 days unless he plans on taking him to the glue factory.

I remember riding the "Chaplins Club" gravy train when I was much younger back in the UK ...

Chaplins Club, who figured among the Racing Post’s “100 Favourite Racehorses”, won a then-record of nine handicaps in a season, twice, in 1985 and 1988, in the latter year, winning seven races in 19 days, which included the valuable Tote Bookmakers’ Sprint Trophy at Ayr.

In total, he won 24 races, his last success coming on his 160th and final outing at Redcar in July 1992.


... they do seem to turn out of lot of horses within a few days if they return from a race sound in the UK ... its MUCH more common than it is here in the US.

[str]

no way an owner runs a horse 3 times in 19 days unless he plans on taking him to the glue factory.



Boy, how things change over time. This is similar to pitchers that can only go 5-6 innings I suppose.
In the late 70s and early 80s Maryland used to run a 5,000 starter handicap series 4 or 5 times a year. The series would be 1 1/16, 1 1/8, 1 3/16, and 1 1/4. These races would run 4 Saturdays in a row. They always filled because the fans liked them and secretary would see to it that they went. A horse might take a 30 day break after running in these but that was it. Because these were weighted handicap races, it was common for the horse that was winning the first couple to carry 122-126 or more pounds by the final leg.
Back then, if you only ran in 2 of them , the racing secretary would accuse you of being soft or not able to keep your horse together.

[JakeLc]

http://www.drf.com/news/rapid-redux-...ll-return-2012 Pay the dog in the prop, congrats

[str]

Well played Sharpcat.

Congrats is in order.

[Dark Horse]

Nice job.

I bet this Tuesday morning at +260. BOL canceled the wager. No idea why.

[Dark Horse]

Did they grade this a winner for you? It looks like the person who graded the bet has no understanding of horse racing, or of the nature of this prop. Their main horse racing person seems to be out of town. They graded this wager without understanding its dynamic, which clearly included the question if the trainer would find an easy enough race before the end of the year. A non horse racing person would have graded this as a cancellation because the horse didn't race again, without understanding that the question if he would race again was part of the prop; or that Rapid Redux would have been virtually guaranteed the win had he indeed raced again (meaning that the odds would have been very different). Either that, or BOL was free rolling players with this prop.

[Boscoe]

The stipulatio that he had to race again was included on the wager. I saw that and didn't bet it. Sorry guys.

[Dark Horse]

I didn't see that. Doesn't seem like SC saw it either. And it sure doesn't say so on my ticket. It wouldn't make much sense, because the chance that RR wouldn't have won his 20th race, if the trainer had been able to find another easy race, would have been next to nothing. The odds for the prop couldn't have been what they were early this week. The reason he didn't run is that the trainer was unable to find such a race in time. And that question did make sense against the price of the prop.

[JakeLc]

It's interesting that neither PEN nor CT put up an extra for him.There is a starter alw for him at LRL on the 4th.

[JakeLc]

The race at LRL filled , he is entered on January 4th in a starter

[str]

It's interesting that neither PEN nor CT put up an extra for him.There is a starter alw for him at LRL on the 4th.

We do not know the whole story here do we Jake.

I think that I read that Penn. had declined to even write an extra . I don't know about C.T.

There is something that brings light to the subject that we are not privy too.

Oh well.

[JakeLc]

Re: CT I looked at the overnights and they wrote a lot of extras but they didn't write a race for him. It looks like the LRL secretary took care of him though.

[ehp6737]

The owner has clearly stated they want the record.As I posted earlier, they would put a race together for him if there isn't one already in the book

If you're betting the no because you think he can get beat that is one thing. If you're betting the no because you think there won't be a race for him you're throwing your money away. If they do have to put up an extra and hustle it to get it filled, there is a good chance it would come up as one of the weakest fields he has had to face yet.

Hate to say I told you so, but ya I did. There were very limited options over the last few weeks of the year with only a handful of tracks open and the holidays taking away some racing dates. And I think you overestimated the willingness of the racing secretaries to accommodate given all the factors.