Hypothetical scenario:
I have found a baseball line of +155, and I believe the true value of that line to be +145 (+/-2) (from +143 to +147). (By "true value" I mean the odds corresponding to the actual probability the team will win.)
How would I introduce that error range into the Kelly Criterion to find optimal bet size?
I have found a baseball line of +155, and I believe the true value of that line to be +145 (+/-2) (from +143 to +147). (By "true value" I mean the odds corresponding to the actual probability the team will win.)
How would I introduce that error range into the Kelly Criterion to find optimal bet size?