Three NBA season Prop Bets: Knicks, Celtics and the Field

seaborneq · 12-08-11, 05:32 PM

No value in Knicks with Dantoni there. No value in the Celtics with Rondo always on the block. Heat win it this year.

jjgold · 12-08-11, 05:35 PM

Knicks are poorly coached, Anthony does not come to play all the time
No defense, older point guard
Billy this might be your worst play in 10 years

Heat are the play

jose21_us · 12-08-11, 05:37 PM

Heat all day

mighty maron · 12-08-11, 06:10 PM

I would look at season win props. Teams that can play zone D well will do better than expected. Mid range jumpers will be worse this year than most.

Goat Milk · 12-08-11, 06:38 PM

THere's a few things you don't understand.

1. Boston is not moving Rajan Rondo. That's a guarantee. Understand basketball.
2. The Knciks is a good value bet because they can make the ECF perhaps. But they don't have any depth. They need another year or two to build that team. It will be a contender in the future.

3. Did you just say Chicago will be setup as good as the Heat? LOL
4. I think people don't understand that Miami is a much better team this year then they were last year, and most of the teams you mentioned save for the KNicks, are worse this year. INcluding the bulls.

Goat Milk · 12-08-11, 06:59 PM

This guy is gonna get buried. LOL all these betters search for value but yet don't even understand enough about basketball to realize that Chicago has no chance to win an NBA title for at least 3 years.

Bill Dozer · 12-08-11, 09:05 PM

OK now they are saying Tyson Chandler 98% done in New York. You got a full season of Chandler, Carmelo, Amare in major market for +3000 ??? And as of right now, your biggest competition is last year's Heat team. Cmon now

Delicious · 12-08-11, 09:26 PM

Melo and amare very flawed players, one may still have back problems the other has no heart and is dumb as a box of rocks. Chandler would help.... but, what about the rest of the team? Knicks are garbage.

dfberger23 · 12-08-11, 09:28 PM

Knicks have a 0% chance of winning. D'Antoni will never win a title, he builds good regular season teams and nothing more.

I can't wait until they fire him, I am sick of watching this team.

Heat not to win is a great bet.

mlb · 12-08-11, 09:44 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

THere's a few things you don't understand. 1. Boston is not moving Rajan Rondo. That's a guarantee. Understand basketball. 2. The Knciks is a good value bet because they can make the ECF perhaps. But they don't have any depth. They need another year or two to build that team. It will be a contender in the future. 3. Did you just say Chicago will be setup as good as the Heat? LOL 4. I think people don't understand that Miami is a much better team this year then they were last year, and most of the teams you mentioned save for the KNicks, are worse this year. INcluding the bulls.

what angle are you coming at this with? there players def are not better as of right now, roster i mean...

you looking at it from them meshing together better??

Goat Milk · 12-08-11, 09:49 PM

Originally posted by Bill Dozer

OK now they are saying Tyson Chandler 98% done in New York. You got a full season of Chandler, Carmelo, Amare in major market for +3000 ??? And as of right now, your biggest competition is last year's Heat team. Cmon now

Knicks are a good bet for hedging purposes. But I'm gonna come back here at the end of the year and tell you I told you so just like I told SBR John last year when he kept creating those Bulls are gonna beat the Heat threads and I had to tell him. The era has changed. Understand basketball. All these guys want to bet against MIA when you have to realize NBA is about dynasties.

Originally posted by mlb

what angle are you coming at this with? there players def are not better as of right now, roster i mean... you looking at it from them meshing together better??

Put it this way.

1. Riley is adding more depth
2. Better meshing.
3. Lebron spent the summer with Hakeem....

Bill Dozer · 12-08-11, 09:53 PM

Im not picking the Knicks to beat the Heat straight up... but if you give me 30-1 on similar matchup 30 times I think Im gonna be a rich man.

Bill Dozer · 12-08-11, 09:55 PM

Originally posted by dfberger23

Knicks have a 0% chance of winning. D'Antoni will never win a title, he builds good regular season teams and nothing more.

I can't wait until they fire him, I am sick of watching this team.

Heat not to win is a great bet.

As a bettor, (I'm no math think tank guy) the way to look at it isn't to say 0% chance but to actually price it. +6000 +10000 +20k. When are you going to lay the $100? Have you already ruled out injuries? What if Lebron and Kobe collide and bang knees? Who wins from the field? Shit happens... and usually does which is why bookmaking is a profitable business. Cleveland can beat Pitt tonight.

Goat Milk · 12-08-11, 09:56 PM

Originally posted by Bill Dozer

Im not picking the Knicks to beat the Heat straight up... but if you give me 30-1 on similar matchup 30 times I think Im gonna be a rich man.

Sure. But your laying -265 on Heat not to win the championship? That bet is a joke, right? Because if you know basketball you know this is a bad bet since MIA is getting to the finals. You're better off taking the West team in the NBA finals at + odds to beat the Heat.

No, the Celtics or Bulls are not beating the Heat in a 7 game series Dozer. Don't make this bet at -265. It's ridiculous.

mlb · 12-08-11, 09:58 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

Sure. But your laying -265 on Heat not to win the championship? That bet is a joke, right? Because if you know basketball you know this is a bad bet since MIA is getting to the finals. You're better off taking the West team in the NBA finals at + odds to beat the Heat. No, the Celtics or Bulls are not beating the Heat in a 7 game series Dozer. Don't make this bet at -265. It's ridiculous.

foregone conclusion

mlb · 12-08-11, 09:59 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

Knicks are a good bet for hedging purposes. But I'm gonna come back here at the end of the year and tell you I told you so just like I told SBR John last year when he kept creating those Bulls are gonna beat the Heat threads and I had to tell him. The era has changed. Understand basketball. All these guys want to bet against MIA when you have to realize NBA is about dynasties. Put it this way. 1. Riley is adding more depth 2. Better meshing. 3. Lebron spent the summer with Hakeem....

i iknow they added battier now but who are they all losing? ... you heard any rumors or hear of any signings of guys they will be bringing in??

mlb · 12-08-11, 09:59 PM

I also think LeBron spent a few days with Hakeem but I'm sure he learned a little bit about post moves and things

Goat Milk · 12-08-11, 10:02 PM

Originally posted by mlb

foregone conclusion

Of course. The East doesn't have the rosters to compete in a 7 game series. How many people here actually watched basketball during the Jordan and early Bryant eras. I don't think many watched, only gambled. They want to go against the favorite every time.

I even saw posters like Paco and others starting a thread that Lebron James will not win a ring. Um....yeah....Lebron James is not going to win a ring in his career. Who cares if the guy is a loser. Study his game.

Bill Dozer · 12-08-11, 10:04 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

Sure. But your laying -265 on Heat not to win the championship? That bet is a joke, right? Because if you know basketball you know this is a bad bet since MIA is getting to the finals. You're better off taking the West team in the NBA finals at + odds to beat the Heat.

No, the Celtics or Bulls are not beating the Heat in a 7 game series Dozer. Don't make this bet at -265. It's ridiculous.

Tell me the actual odds of Wade or Lebron missing a key series in the playoffs (I have no idea) and then we can begin to debate that the unbeatable Heat, that got beat last year with same team, are unbeatable.

When/If Dwight Howard goes to the Lakers next week, that -265 line is going to go waaay up.

Goat Milk · 12-08-11, 10:05 PM

MLB,

They brought in Eddie Curry who is a scrub. There are some other talks to try and add a legit big man. Lebron picked up several post moves. Wade is healthy and ready to go. I think that combination by itself having had time to blossom like you said will be more than enough this year so long as Howard doesn't go to LA. We are talking about 2 of the greatest 15 players in NBA history (when their careers are over).

Goat Milk · 12-08-11, 10:07 PM

Originally posted by Bill Dozer

Tell me the actual odds of Wade or Lebron missing a key series in the playoffs (I have no idea) and then we can begin to debate that the unbeatable Heat, that got beat last year with same team, are unbeatable.

If my memory serves right, Lebron has never missed a playoff game in his career, let alone a series. I believe it's the same case for Wade, but i'm not positive on that one. The team is different. These types of teams change every year. Remind me how the Heat got to the finals and played average basketball throughout the playoffs. Then remind me how much better the Lakers were in their 2nd year of the Kobe/Shaq b2b than they were the first year.

mlb · 12-08-11, 10:08 PM

yeah yeah ... you make valid points plus they will be in the finals again as you stated before....

i am actually warming up to them this year to win it all .. i was all about them not winning it last year.

Bill Dozer · 12-08-11, 10:15 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

If my memory serves right, Lebron has never missed a playoff game in his career, let alone a series. I believe it's the same case for Wade, but i'm not positive on that one. The team is different. These types of teams change every year. Remind me how the Heat got to the finals and played average basketball throughout the playoffs. Then remind me how much better the Lakers were in their 2nd year of the Kobe/Shaq b2b than they were the first year.

All players have a chance of getting hurt. Ankles roll for everyone, even MJ. Wade's missed a lot of games and been to the shop. They might be favorites but ya can't bet them at whatever price is listed.

mighty maron · 12-09-11, 01:22 PM

Thank you very much. This is a well thought out and discussed thread by people with differing opinions. It is an actual adult conversation on this forum.

I enjoyed this thread and thank the posters who did this very much.

Kudos

FreeFall · 12-09-11, 01:44 PM

I'm not a fan of tying my money up for so long in post up shops, but BOL John. I agree with you.