how can you win long term gambling
post your info guys
lets make 90% of posters here life time winners
lets make 90% of posters here life time winners
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ONLY ONE WORD....... DisciplineComment -
follow steam..Comment -
Labby. Do it properly, stick with it. Makes it very hard to lose.Comment -
THE LABOURCHERE
The principle is used by Roulette players as it only requires 39% winning to break even and since we hit WAY better than that it is a natural fit with our program. Each day I will provide you with exactly how many units to play and I'll calculate the Labourchere for you, however it's a good idea to have a basic understanding of how it works.
1. We start with a four number line. Lets say you're a $50 player. The line would be
25-25-25-25
Your wager is always the sum of the two outside numbers. (highlighted) As you see above your base bet would be $50. Now lets suppose that we lose our first wager. A losing wager is placed at the end of the line and our new line would be
25-25-25-25-50
Therefore your next wager would be $75 (25+50) as highligted above. Let's suppose that we win our next wager. You cross out those two numbers and create your new line:
X-25-25-25-X
Thus your next wager would be back down to $50. Understand? Your goal is no longer so much to win every game or to focus on the daily ups and downs but our goal it to clear lines. Each 2 times we clear a line we raise our bet which means growing bankrolls and faster profits. After we clear the line above 2 times our next line would be: 30-30-30-30 with a base bet of $60.
The best part about the Labourchere is that you get back all of your losses without doubling and quadroupling your bets. It is a safe and efficent way to maximize our bankrolls while minimizing risk. Please be sure to start small. On the daily email at the start of each season I'll be using a line with a $50 base bet. If your bankroll is small and you are a 20 or 25 player just cut the bet amount listed in the email by half. On the other end....if you have a larger bankroll and are a $100 player or more just take the amount listed in the email and multiply it accordingly.
***THE LATEST RESEARCH***(Fall 2008)
I've found an even more efficient way to play with the Labourchere. For both MLB and NBA work each game on its own line:
Game 1 line: 25-25-25-25
Game 2 line: 25-25-25-25
Game 3 line: 25-25-25-25
By doing this, you prevent one bad team or back to back bad teams from getting you in an uncomfortable
position.
So if you lose game 1 your new line would be: 25-25-25-25-50 but your next wager would only be $50 as you would move to your game 2 line.
If you have more than one game 1 going at the same time...you play them all at the current wager and adjust your line.
Lets say you have 2 new plays today and your current game 1 line is: 25-25-25-25-50. Play them both for $75 and then adjust your line after the games are completed. So lets say one wins and one loses. Your winner would make the line: X -25-25-25-X. Then you would add your 75 loser to the end of the line so at the end of the day your game 1 line would be X-25-25-25-75 or just 25-25-25-75. Understand?
6/18/09 - Latest Labourchere Update
One of the drawbacks of the Labourchere or one of the complaints people have always had since I introduced it to Covers.com in 2008 was that it wasn't really practical for baseball when you have favorites or better teams that can be -150+. Additionally, for NBA people who wanted to buy the "3" points on some systems couldn't really use the labourchere effectively laying -170 each time because we were betting to risk.
Problems Solved!
Our number 1 goal when the stats team and I had got together recently was to find a way to use the Labourchere and bet to WIN therefor making it the best money managment method for EVERY sport. I think we succeeded and I'm happy to share the results with everyone.
I'm not going to go into the bitter details of going 5 years back and all that but instead I'm going to focus on how you use it.
First, like our updated research before you will have a line for EACH GAME NUMBER in the system you are using. So if your system is a two game chase you'll have a GAME 1 line and a GAME 2 line. If it's a 3 game or 4 game.....you'll set up lines accoding to how many game numbers you have.
Ok let's get to examples and how it works.
For this example we'll say that we have a 3 game system and you're going to start with a $100. Remember we always bet the total of the outside 2 numbers as highlighted below..
Game 1: 50-50-50-50
Game 2: 50-50-50-50
Game 3: 50-50-50-50
Our first bet will now bet to WIN 100. We will no longer be betting risk but to WIN. Let's say your team was-150 and they lost. Instead of putting the 150 on the end of line 1 and having a situation where your next game 1 bet is already double what your original bet was we're going to SPLIT the 150 in two and put 75 on line 1 and DROP 75 down to line 2. Your lines will now look like this:
Game 1: 50-50-50-50-75
Game 2: 50-50-50-50-75
Game 3: 50-50-50-50
We are Splitting the loss amount for 2 reasons. 1. We want to prevent 1 bad run from making our lines completely out of control in comparison to our bankroll. 2. We want to take advantage of the fact that most system plays get stronger from game 1 to 2 to 3.
So instead of just relying on Game 1 to pick up our losses why not let game 2, typically a stronger game, do some of the work and get back part of your game 1 losses? It makes sense and it works.
How do you handle multiple games? Well lets say for example that you had two game
2's today and you were using the line above that called for a $125 WIN wager. If you have an early game and a late game you would bet the 125 on the early game and after the results you would adjust your line according to the results and bet your late game by what the line calls for. Let's say you have a 7pm eastern and a 10:05 eastern. You bet 180 to win 125 on your early game and it loses.....your game 2 line would be: 50-50-50-50-75-90
and your Game 3 line would be: 50-50-50-50-90 (remember we split the total of your game 2 loss and keep half on the game 2 line and drop half to game 3.
So the wager on your late game would be to WIN 140. If that wins you'd adjust your game 2 line accordingly: X-50-50-50-75-X
What if, going back to the game 2 line of: 50-50-50-50-75, both of our games are 7pm eastern and there is not time gap. Very simple I play all games to whatever the line calls for at that time. If I had 3 game 2's and they were all 7pm I would play them all to win 125 and adjust my lines at the end of the day according to the results.
Are you starting to get the hang of it?
Q: How do I adjust my line at the end of the day with varying amounts?
A: Lets use our lines.....
Game 1 - 50-50-50-50
Game 2 - 50-50-50-50
Game 3 - 50-50-50-50
So we have 3 game 1's starting today we risk 150 to win 100, we risk 105 to win 100, and we risk 130 to win 100. The -150 game wins and the other 2 lose so here is how we adjust our lines.........
First subtract your winner and your game 1 would look like below.
Game 1 - X-50-50-X
Game 2 - 50-50-50-50
Game 3 - 50-50-50-50
Next, add the losing wagers to your lines......you lost 105 and 130 so you would add 65(130/2) and 53(105/2 rounded up) I add the smallest number first then the larger so now your lines after the days wagers would look like:
Game 1 - X-50-50-53-65
Game 2 - 50-50-50-50-53-65
Game 3 - 50-50-50-50
Now for game 2 lets say you just bet both games to WIN 115. (You have that option. For those of you who like to put your bets in early and i do this all the time...I just make all my bets for the day at whatever the line calls for so in this case all my game 2's would be
to win 115.
If both of your Game 2 wagers win simply adjust your lines and get ready for your next qualifying plays. Here is what your final lines would look like after your game 2 winners.
Since you won 2 games you would clear out two sets of winning numbers.
Game 1 - X-50-50-53-65
Game 2 - X-X-50-50-X-X
Game 3 - 50-50-50-50
Overall if you understand the Labourchere, you'll understand this. All you're doing is betting to win and if you lose your wager take your total wager/2 and put half on the line you were on and slide half down to the next line. If you are on a game 3 of 3 and it loses....put half the total on your game 3 line and bring the other half up to game 1 line.
LABOURCHERE BET TO WIN OPTION #2 UPDATED 7/13/09
Ok, now that you understand we can use the Labourchere betting to win there is
another very viable option for those who have a solid bankroll......
If you look above and notice that if we have a line of 50-50-50-50 and we bet 150 to win 100....if that bet loses we would put "75" on the end of line 1 and drop the other 75 to line 2.
Instead of doing that here is what you could do.....
Game 1: 50-50-50-50
Game 2: 50-50-50-50
Game 3: 50-50-50-50
You bet to win your 100 so risking 150 to win 100 for example....if that bet loses...instead of adding a 75 to your line 1 you simply add 75 to the final number already on your line 1 and drop 75 and add it to the last number of line 2.....it would look like....
Game 1: 50-50-50-125
Game 2: 50-50-50-125
Game 3: 50-50-50-50
Now when game 2 comes you'll be betting to win 175 instead of what would have been 125.
Advantage - by using this method it requires less games and therefore you'll get back ALL or your losses PLUS all of your profit sooner. The other method for betting to win does WORK GREAT but the only downfall is that it will take longer to clear those lines.
Disadvantage - by using the latest method you NEED a solid bankroll because numbers could get fairly big during a losing run whereas the original "BET TO WIN" method listed above spreads the money out and keeps the amounts very manageable but it just takes a little longer to clear the lines.
Either way I think you'll find that using the Labourchere instead of chasing will create
a much safer and more profitable way to play.
Just remember 1 thing - "In any season where you have a chase loss, the chasers will NEVER outperform someone using the Labourchere." We recover our losses in a week to 10 days....one 15 unit chase loss will require 15 consecutive wins just to get back to where you were!Comment -
Appreciate you posting that TR88. Makes it so I don't have to explain it.
Everyone who tries and detract from this system typically has no argument behind it. Even on the disadvantage you listed, if you can bring yourself to start with a big bankroll and keep your labby lines small, you can absorb the bad runs -- bad runs that will be made up for very quickly when you use this.
It was created for roulette, which has a 47% player advantage. Tail cappers that hit a consistent 55%+ (and there are numerous), and that's a major jump and a major advantage.Comment -
Cool story broComment -
take bonuses and cross bet. 100% success rate over the long-term (a million bets). any other system has 100% failure rate over a million bets.Comment -
90%+ have zero chance to "make coin" with -110 long term, no matter how disciplined they areComment -
fade the publicComment -
Kind of like Poker, 90% + losers and the rest winners.
But everyone still thinks they are winning......keeps them in the game.Comment -
Ty for your post TR88Comment -
bankroll management,which need also a lot of discipline
plus i pee in my shoes b4 the start of every gameComment -
Wager NFL, College Football, NBA. Stay away from MLB. Take 3 months off. And start the cycle over.Comment -
Spot bet only
Maybe 20-30 bets per yearComment -
beat the closing line
line shop for the best line available
understand the mathematical concepts involved in wagering.
dont bet on sports you are losing onComment -
tr88, are u in usa?Comment -
Relatively impossible. Hundreds of thousands have tried, and no more than a few dozen(?) have succeeded long term. For the handful of guys who have the math/statistics aptitude as well as work ethic, there is much easier money to be made elsewhere.
Set a stop loss amount, have some fun, and don't ruin your life.Comment -
no more than a few dozen? i know of at least a dozen people that have followed my bonus whoring in the milwaukee area and are up well over $100k lifetime.
yes it's much more difficult now in the states without neteller and with very few top-tier sportsbook options for u.s. players. but i'm quite sure there are thousands and thousands of people that will never lose what they've taken out of the system.
Comment -
no more than a few dozen? i know of at least a dozen people that have followed my bonus whoring in the milwaukee area and are up well over $100k lifetime.
yes it's much more difficult now in the states without neteller and with very few top-tier sportsbook options for u.s. players. but i'm quite sure there are thousands and thousands of people that will never lose what they've taken out of the system.
Lots of people are technically lifetime winners, but gambling is still overwhelmingly -EV (for all but a few). Given a large enough sample, almost everyone loses. I suppose we need to define long term. How many are winners over a multi-year span with 1000+ plays?Comment -
Interesting read. I guy that once posted here sent me the same thing above posted.Comment -
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labouch%C3%A8re_system straight from wikipedia
The Labouchere system:
An obvious downfall to the system is bankroll, because the more losses sustained by the player, the greater the amount being bet on each turn (as well as the greater the amount lost overall) is.
Occasionally, a player following this system will come to a point where he can no longer make the next bet as demanded by the system due to table limits. One work-around for this problem is simply to move to a higher limit table, or a player can take the next number that should be bet, divide it by two and simply add it to the list twice. The problem with the latter option is that every time a player commits such a play, it will infinitesimally increase the percentage of spins a player must win to complete the system. The reason this is so is because the player is adding two numbers (which both will be crossed out in the event of wins) where only one loss was sustained.
To prove this, if a player were to play the Labouchère System the same way with the exception being that the player always added half of the wager lost to the bottom of the list twice for every wager lost where:
x = Number of Wins y = Number of Losses Z = Numbers Originally on the List</PRE>When:
y + (z/2) ≤ x</PRE>The result is the list being completed.
The player would actually have to win in excess of 50% of the time (the actual percentage of wins necessary, given x and y, being dependent on z) in order to complete the list, or more than the player could actually be expected to win.Comment -
without bonuses over a million plays everyone will come pretty close to losing the juice. just like the stock market, if you make a million day trades you will almost certainly come pretty close to losing the commissions and bid/ask spread.
but with bonuses and sbr freebies, you can have some fun and be ahead (a little) as long as you stay away from -ev stuff like going over rollovers and playing in the casino for "fun"...Comment -
only one way to win, stop gambling. take those would be losses and enjoy that extra money.Comment -
Most people don't care about winning long-term. They're just action junkies. Gambling is a drug to many people, they just are in it for the thrill and roller coaster ride.Comment
