I'm thoroughly convinced it's impossible for the average Joe to win at this

20Four7 · 11-20-11, 08:01 AM

One if you can grind out 60% your not really grinding your doing excellent.

Your sample size is probably too small and the 40% your experiencing is variance unless your actually horrible. Most people don't win that's why the books are in business and treat winners like they are diseased.

mrmarket · 11-20-11, 08:20 AM

A) Sample size is too small but you don't recognize this
B) Hitting 60% clip means you are passing up other bets where you have an edge IF you are a winning player
C) People beat sportsbetting with much smaller bankrolls (some winning players started with as low as $100)
D) University education is not relevant. You don't have to have a high intelligence to beat sportsbetting. It helps but if you can do some basic high school algebra & elementary arithmetic you're 9/10ths of the way there.
E) Given A + B + C + D I doubt you are a winning player.

If you want to be a winning player maybe a little more humility and study is required instead of thinking that it's impossible? That or recognize that you will never win and treat it as a hobby.

alling · 11-20-11, 08:24 AM

fade yourself

no1here · 11-20-11, 08:37 AM

copied from above,
I feel like I'm wasting my time here trying to gain an edge when there is clearly none to be had.

response,
You are mostly right but there just has to be an edge somewhere. I have been looking like you and have come up pretty much empty.
I find posters picks are consistently bad. I find the pros here hired by SBR are no better. I find the various consensuses not helpful.

I do find the matchup info here extremely helpful. I also find the contest here helpful by showing me where I need to improve. I do pick and choose info posted very carefully and did make Kansas St my primary bet yesterday from very unusual thread on game.

I find the best info here within the points forum. Look at the badges and it is easy to see the best. Some need to be ignored as well as the assorted funds. The sports books found there tells you what the good ones are betting on.

I too very much consider fading myself but clearly that is not the answer. My thoughts currently is looking at my picks vs my thoughts on others picks. In my head I believe I am very good at telling if another is right or wrong. Many times I have posted if a person is wrong or not and believe if researched I would be 90% correct. Maybe it not how one is looking at a game but how he is betting the game that needs to change.

Game stuck in my head is sd/bears. Rudy posted that he liked chargers and I found him dead wrong. I did respond with post but never submitted it. Within Rudys thread is where you can find alot of posters that I respect greatly. Do not use all found there and be very careful of Rudy's picks even though he is extremely good or at least has very thick blood.

Last I will say that normally it takes 5-8 years to become a master and patience and pencil is needed here. Good Luck!

lite1up · 11-20-11, 08:46 AM

OK guys, fair responses. I just FEEL like I'm hitting at a horrible rate over enough bets that my losing percentage is not attributable to variance. I don't know, my record-keeping, like I said, flat out sucks and I'm working on changing that. It's possible I'm hitting closer to 50% and I'm just losing my bigger plays at a great enough clip that it feels like my winning percentage is closer to 40%...I don't know. Variance COULD account for that as I typically flat bet and occasionally make larger plays.

Originally posted by mrmarket

A) Sample size is too small but you don't recognize this
B) Hitting 60% clip means you are passing up other bets where you have an edge IF you are a winning player
C) People beat sportsbetting with much smaller bankrolls (some winning players started with as low as $100)
D) University education is not relevant. You don't have to have a high intelligence to beat sportsbetting. It helps but if you can do some basic high school algebra & elementary arithmetic you're 9/10ths of the way there.
E) Given A + B + C + D I doubt you are a winning player.

If you want to be a winning player maybe a little more humility and study is required instead of thinking that it's impossible? That or recognize that you will never win and treat it as a hobby.

Point well-taken. And I will fully admit to being a losing player. I'd like it to change, and until I can prove to myself I can WIN consistently I will not be heavily funding my account anytime soon.

My latest deposit of $1,000 is down to $50. I WAS flat-betting $20 but recently started going all degenerate with it, which is how I quickly depleted my account. I'm not betting with anything that has the potential to break me, but I'd still like to claw back without re-depositing and I don't want to quit at this. $50 account = $1 bets with proper money management....obviously this isn't realistic. How would you manage a $50 account at this point?

jjgold · 11-20-11, 08:49 AM

Your not going to win period unless you scalp and middle where there is no risk
Most players do not have the money or minds to do it though

I know guys from yesterday that had a free $500 in scalps no matter who won

GAME OVER

seaborneq · 11-20-11, 08:56 AM

Don't do parlays and props. Just stick to sides and money management and you will be ok. It took me nearly 10 years to master money management and to walk away from bad lines.

mrmarket · 11-20-11, 09:02 AM

Originally posted by lite1up

OK guys, fair responses. I just FEEL like I'm hitting at a horrible rate over enough bets that my losing percentage is not attributable to variance. I don't know, my record-keeping, like I said, flat out sucks and I'm working on changing that. It's possible I'm hitting closer to 50% and I'm just losing my bigger plays at a great enough clip that it feels like my winning percentage is closer to 40%...I don't know. Variance COULD account for that as I typically flat bet and occasionally make larger plays.

Point well-taken. And I will fully admit to being a losing player. I'd like it to change, and until I can prove to myself I can WIN consistently I will not be heavily funding my account anytime soon.

My latest deposit of $1,000 is down to $50. I WAS flat-betting $20 but recently started going all degenerate with it, which is how I quickly depleted my account. I'm not betting with anything that has the potential to break me, but I'd still like to claw back without re-depositing and I don't want to quit at this. $50 account = $1 bets with proper money management....obviously this isn't realistic. How would you manage a $50 account at this point?

You have a fundamental misunderstanding which is common with gamblers here (and everywhere really). They think that by concentrating on bankroll strategies they can somehow magically overcome a negative expectation. You see bankroll threads being discussed ad nauseam on the forums by people that all lose. If you're a losing player all the money management in the world will not help. It may help you lose less, and for a longer period of time however.

The fact is you need an edge to make a bet. If no edge exists you should not bet at all. There are exceptions however like betting as a way to circumvent being banned at a book but they are not relevant to this situation and I mention it only for the sake of completeness.

Go out and buy Fixed odds sports betting/Weighing the odds in sports betting/Sharp sports betting and read posts on here by Ganchrow + wells in the sportsbetting subforum on 2+2. You're wasting your own time/effort doing anything else right now.

jmdudney · 11-20-11, 09:08 AM

Originally posted by jjgold

Your not going to win period unless you scalp and middle where there is no risk
Most players do not have the money or minds to do it though

I know guys from yesterday that had a free $500 in scalps no matter who won

GAME OVER

Good Point. However it is highly frowned upon at some books.

To me, Sports Betting is not so much about research as it is gut. You definitely have to know your sports, but do not go outside of your spectrum.

Example;

If you can watch basketball games without betting on them, then basketball is a go. If you cant sit down and watch a certain sport without having anything on it, then you probably shouldnt bet on it.

Bankroll is a plus, but dont let that get you down, everybody who is something started at the Bottom, no matter what they tell you.

Just take your time, the biggest thing is dont force bet. If you look at a spread and dont know who to choose, then DONT. Dont go research it and make a decision, just leave it alone.

Last rule I go by, dont let it stress you out so much, it will consume your life, and like every other drug, gambling can lead to addiction and can be a serious problem,

Best of Luck to you...

shari91 · 11-20-11, 09:10 AM

Originally posted by lite1up

My latest deposit of $1,000 is down to $50. I WAS flat-betting $20 but recently started going all degenerate with it, which is how I quickly depleted my account. I'm not betting with anything that has the potential to break me, but I'd still like to claw back without re-depositing and I don't want to quit at this. $50 account = $1 bets with proper money management....obviously this isn't realistic. How would you manage a $50 account at this point?

I'd venture that anyone reading this thread knew you'd messed up your money management even before your 2nd post in here. No discipline will harm your chances but that's not the big problem although it's probably the hardest thing to achieve at first. Yeah you'll win one of those do or die all-in bets but you'll eventually piss it back and try it again. And again. And again.

You won't get anywhere long-term without at least attempting to learn the basic math fundamentals behind sportsbetting. No one is going to win long-term from pure handicapping. If someone can point out an example - a realistic example with a proper sample size - I'll gladly retract my statement. But it won't happen. You need to go to the Think Tank forum. But before you do, read these two threads over and over until they're blazed in your brain. And then bookmark them so you never forget them. If you take nothing else from SBR, take the info in these two threads. If you do, you'll be much further ahead of the majority of people who are placing bets in books.

With a $50 bankroll, it's going to suck to have to reduce your wager size after making those big chasing bets but drop down to $2.50 or so. Think of that other $950 as permanently gone and try to convince yourself your starting with a roll of $50. Protect that roll like you would a newborn baby. Don't place a bet unless the percentage of probability you give that play of hitting is higher than the implied probability of the line you're offered. If that means you don't place a bet for 5 days or 2 weeks, so be it. The info is all right here in this forum to at least give yourself a fighting chance. And you definitely don't need a uni degree. But you do have to put in a bit of work. GL

shari91 · 11-20-11, 09:15 AM

Oh, and good on you for not being the typical "I'm the best bettor in the world" type who has been hitting the forum hard lately. 99% of us on here are trying to figure this out and are here to learn and help each other out. It takes a big person to admit they're struggling and actually listen to the advice people are genuinely giving you. It's amazing how the responses you'll receive in here will differ from those in threads where people proclaim to know it all in their first post. Again, best of luck lite1up

Glitch · 11-20-11, 09:34 AM

also, youre Not flipping a coin. if a football line is -2.5 then thats often the team they want you to bet. it might look tasty because its less than a fg but someone made it less than a field goal.

jmdudney · 11-20-11, 09:40 AM

Originally posted by Glitch

also, youre Not flipping a coin. if a football line is -2.5 then thats often the team they want you to bet. it might look tasty because its less than a fg but someone made it less than a field goal.

Agreed. Also dont be afraid to take huge underdogs. If you have a gut feeling, go for it.

Monitor-Tan · 11-20-11, 09:51 AM

I'd like to chip in my personal experience. IF you are serious about this, and you have 50 dollar bank roll, and you just lost 950, do yourself a favor and just reload.. The worst thing you can do is go on a hot streak with 50 dollars... I've seen it happen so many times... When you say you're going to flat bet or stick with a betting system, you literally stick with it all the way.. What are you going to do if you go on an insane hot streak and you're betting 2 dollars a game, when you normal bet 50...

One thing i've always sucked at more then sucking at everything else is over/unders.. Maybe this is also something you might look into, maybe picking sides isn't your thing maybe picking over unders is.. Some people are real good at over unders and I'm willing to bet that more "professionals" look for the over/unders as usually you can find more value in over/unders as lines end up being ever so slightly less sharp then the spread..Maybe it's your thing, at this point what have you got to lose..

Everyone can take a beating.. I've gotten my butt (censored) this year because I tried college football and I think i'm done like 1700 or something, I've learned my lesson that college ain't my thing, I'm down in NFL as well but I do expect it to pick up a little bit.. Point being, as someone stated, I know my limits and my skill set. Knowing yours is an asset as well, trying to force yourself into a spot where you don't now WTF is going to happen will get you burnt.. I know my skills and what I'm good at and suck at, and what I need to do and not to do.. As someone stated for me this is a side hobby I do with my wife and if we make money at end of the season we use it for vacations and little things we splurge on like a new PS3.

I don't know about the long haul over the decades as I've only done this for the last 4 years, but I can tell you that I've had seasons where I've won, like I've had a descent baseball season this year. Some seasons I've won and some seasons I've lost. But saying it's "impossible" just yet is not accurate.