QUESTION: Are these NFL FUTURES good bets??????

[big0mar]

I have determined that there is a 16.1% chance the SF 49ers win the Super Bowl

I have determined that there is a 13.8% chance the Houston Texans win the Super Bowl

The 49ers are currently +1000 to win the Super Bowl

The Texans are currently +1000 to win the Super Bowl

Assuming that my percentages are accurate, and assuming I hit 61% of my NFL bets, are these good bets to make???????

NOTE: there is a right answer and a wrong answer here.

[big0mar]

Nobody knows

This is why you guys lose so much

[Goat Milk]

Teams like that don't win the superbowl. Talk about value all you want. Teams like Oklahoma City don't win the NBA championship with that roster, neither do the Bulls. It doesn't matter how far they get, they can't win.

It's the same story with those two. Houston is a better selection of the two because they have way more weapons, but I just can't see them winning a Superbowl. Just look at teams that have won in the past. The regular season doesn't matter much. Remember that when you place your bet. Good luck with ur bet

[big0mar]

Teams like that don't win the superbowl. Talk about value all you want. Teams like Oklahoma City don't win the NBA championship with that roster, neither do the Bulls. It doesn't matter how far they get, they can't win.

It's the same story with those two. Houston is a better selection of the two because they have way more weapons, but I just can't see them winning a Superbowl. Just look at teams that have won in the past. The regular season doesn't matter much. Remember that when you place your bet. Good luck with ur bet

You are missing the point

I said to assume that the percentages were accurate

Ignore the teams themselves

[Sunde91]

http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/odds-converter/

these threads are always made by presumed big timers like justin7, nicky, fishhead, etc. like they are testing the plebeians as they watch from on high

[Goat Milk]

I'm not interested in hypotheticals and value bets for hedging purposes. Neither of those teams are winning a superbowl this season. People are going to pile on the niners once they go 12-4 this year just like they did on the Bulls. Then reality will set in during the playoffs.

[big0mar]

I'm not interested in hypotheticals and value bets for hedging purposes. Neither of those teams are winning a superbowl this season. People are going to pile on the niners once they go 12-4 this year just like they did on the Bulls. Then reality will set in during the playoffs.

Whats the reality?

[MichaelWaters]

i think those are both ech odds. SF was 38-1 at the start of the season for a reason. they win a lot of close games (lately) but they dont have the offense to win a superbowl. they could easily lose a playoff home game vs anyone

as for houston thats decent odds if Johnson isnt hampered all season long. had surgery on his hamstring and he might not be 100% at all this year

[big0mar]

[MichaelWaters]

plus i see SF +1400 at one of my books and Houston +1650 at another, this tells me you dont have enough cash to spread around and are teetering at one book. thus maybe you should just lay off the futures until you get a bigger bankroll, can expand your selection and get better odds like ones i posted

[big0mar]

plus i see SF +1400 at one of my books and Houston +1650 at another, this tells me you dont have enough cash to spread around and are teetering at one book. thus maybe you should just lay off the futures until you get a bigger bankroll, can expand your selection and get better odds like ones i posted

This wasn't an actual question

You could replace SF with Team X and HOU with Team Y

[SlickRick1382]

I have determined that there is a 16.1% chance the SF 49ers win the Super Bowl I have determined that there is a 13.8% chance the Houston Texans win the Super Bowl The 49ers are currently +1000 to win the Super Bowl The Texans are currently +1000 to win the Super Bowl Assuming that my percentages are accurate, and assuming I hit 61% of my NFL bets, are these good bets to make??????? NOTE: there is a right answer and a wrong answer here.

You lose $740.20 on the Texans over 100 bets

You make $803.10 on the 49ers

[Goat Milk]

The reality is

1. Neither of those teams win anything.
2. Think Tank is the best place to find the answer you're looking for

[slacker00]

SF is looking at a first round bye at this point. 10-1 looks like good odds for a team like that. NYG game will tell a lot.

If you like SF, lay the -185 this weekend because this game will go a long way to determine how SF will go here on out.

[k13]

Teams like that don't win the superbowl. Talk about value all you want. Teams like Oklahoma City don't win the NBA championship with that roster, neither do the Bulls. It doesn't matter how far they get, they can't win.

It's the same story with those two. Houston is a better selection of the two because they have way more weapons, but I just can't see them winning a Superbowl. Just look at teams that have won in the past. The regular season doesn't matter much. Remember that when you place your bet. Good luck with ur bet

Comparing NBA to the NFL is stupid. 7 game series....

New York Giants, Tampa Bay Bucs, Baltimore say Hi. Teams like that can win super bowls.

All it takes is a couple wins in a row.

These are odds are shit now so its best to pass.

[Big Bear]

In my opinion your best futures value to win the super bowl would be Jets at +2000 or Eagles +3000

[Monte]

Nobody knows

This is why you guys lose so much

I know...16.1% chance that the 49ers win it is bullshit. Satisfied?

[milwaukee mike]

You lose $740.20 on the Texans over 100 bets

You make $803.10 on the 49ers

and how did you calculate a loss on the texans over 100 bets? assuming they are $1 bets

14 winners +140
86 losers -86

49ers would be
16 winners +160
84 losers -84

the fact that this hypothetical person is winning 61% of their bets doesn't matter, any bankroll should be large enough to handle a couple of highly profitable futures wagers like these. especially since presumably that bankroll has grown since the player has been winning.

[milwaukee mike]

SF is looking at a first round bye at this point. 10-1 looks like good odds for a team like that. NYG game will tell a lot.

If you like SF, lay the -185 this weekend because this game will go a long way to determine how SF will go here on out.

10-1 look like shit odds for the 49ers because they aren't winning anything. ok so they have a first round bye, then they have a game where they are 60% favorite and a game at green bay where they are a 3-1 underdog. then say a pick em in the super bowl, that would be (.6 x .25 x .5) or .075 chance which would be about 12-1.
and that's being really generous and assuming they have a 100% chance of getting the #2 spot in the nfc.

true odds on the 49ers to win the super bowl should probably be around 20-1 at this point.

[dlunc3]

sf can not win the sb... texans have a better chance

[Monte]

This is why books love futures, some clowns would take +750 on SF right now and think they got decent odds.
lmao...

[k13]

I have Niners 100-1, what's my expected return?

Zero. lol

[milwaukee mike]

I have Niners 100-1, what's my expected return?

Zero. lol

that's not the way i would look at it.
i would hedge niners each of their playoff games (and earlier in the very unlikely scenario that someone catches up to them in the division).

so the expected return would be whatever number you were going to lock in as profit by hedging.

[DJ Dana]

I decided to sprinkle $100 over 6 (or maybe) 7 teams before the season began. Looking at the slips this weekend most of my picks were solid with the exception of the Chargers and Pats who I now don't think can climb the hill and win it all. I guess I'll have to wait and see if it was worth it but at $100 I figure why not? In the end it gives me another chance to take the wife to Vegas when one of them comes through....

[gryfyn1]

Assuming that my percentages are accurate, and assuming I hit 61% of my NFL bets, are these good bets to make???????

if we assume you percentages are accurate then your win rate in irrelevant.

[Big Bear]

DJ what other teams do you have?

[big0mar]

and how did you calculate a loss on the texans over 100 bets? assuming they are $1 bets

14 winners +140
86 losers -86

49ers would be
16 winners +160
84 losers -84

the fact that this hypothetical person is winning 61% of their bets doesn't matter, any bankroll should be large enough to handle a couple of highly profitable futures wagers like these. especially since presumably that bankroll has grown since the player has been winning.

Yes, my bankroll could handle future wagers like these

The question is whether my bankroll is best served making these future wagers????

[DJ Dana]

DJ what other teams do you have?

I played Jets/Steelers/Eagles/Ravens/Falcons

I didn't play GB because they pay-out was not really that great. We'll see. Of those remaining teams I think 3 could realistically win it. The other 2 will need some luck. Futures bets seem kind of cool because so much time passes as the season rolls along that you've long since forgotten the money that you fronted.

[SASH]

-Before the season I put $400 on dolphins under 7.5 wins -110
-Before the season I put $100 on broncos to win afc west +2340
-Before the season I put $400 on packers to win the nfc +225

[Madison]

I have determined that there is a 16.1% chance the SF 49ers win the Super Bowl I have determined that there is a 13.8% chance the Houston Texans win the Super Bowl The 49ers are currently +1000 to win the Super Bowl The Texans are currently +1000 to win the Super Bowl Assuming that my percentages are accurate, and assuming I hit 61% of my NFL bets, are these good bets to make??????? NOTE: there is a right answer and a wrong answer here.

Simple answer here. QB's win super bowls majority of the time and even more so in todays game (rules).

[jess40]

16 percent that SF 49ers win the superbowl...LOL

[aggieshawn]

RickySteve will tell you the real odds in two seconds. If he not rolling around and still laughing right now.
He is one of the math guru's ever.

[gimpy]

All I gotta say is this dude has your back:



Conclusion: We either find out that sports are super rigged, or this guy regrets his tattoo.

[slacker00]

10-1 look like shit odds for the 49ers because they aren't winning anything. ok so they have a first round bye, then they have a game where they are 60% favorite and a game at green bay where they are a 3-1 underdog. then say a pick em in the super bowl, that would be (.6 x .25 x .5) or .075 chance which would be about 12-1.
and that's being really generous and assuming they have a 100% chance of getting the #2 spot in the nfc.

true odds on the 49ers to win the super bowl should probably be around 20-1 at this point.

Your numbers are funnier than omar's "16.1%". You really should be arguing directly with him, not me.

[mh217]

frisco has plenty of momentum and is a winning franchise..plus this team looks like it can handle bad weather..i wouldnt knock frisco..