CFB following Line Moves/RLM/Fade Public with Large Sample

[k13]

A few people wanted to see something like this. College Football is perfect since it gives a huge sample size.
You have to remember this is picking into horrible lines, shows you how inefficient CFB spreads are.

O/U are all Unders blindly picked to keep track. Totals don't interest me but you can see how 50/50 it is...

[brahmabull117]

53% to me means very little



Blind overs covered at like 54% last year in the NFL - it's just 1 season and really means nothing in the long term



if it was that easy to "fade the public" and make money, we would all be rich

[hawley]

Brah didnt you ask (albeit plagiarizing someone else) to see these plays hitting 53%?

[hawley]

Is there any proof that Anti Public/Reverse Line Movement Plays have been very succesful in sports gambling over the last 4 or 5 years or so???




I'm curious if there are any studies over a 300+ play sample where Anti Public/RLM bets won over 52+ percent ATS

53% to me means very little



Blind overs covered at like 54% last year in the NFL - it's just 1 season and really means nothing in the long term



if it was that easy to "fade the public" and make money, we would all be rich

Brah you will never hit close to 50% long term.

[brahmabull117]

Brah didnt you ask (albeit plagiarizing someone else) to see these plays hitting 53%?

show me multiple sports and multiple seasons




53% to me means very little anyways - if you can't hit 55-58% just handicapping on your own, you have no business talking sports gambling

[hawley]

show me multiple sports and multiple seasons




53% to me means very little anyways - if you can't hit 55-58% just handicapping on your own, you have no business talking sports gambling

You are not one to talk.

Start a fukkn spreadsheet and document your plays long term.

You have started so many threads and let them die why you post a few losers, and still refuse to use a spreadsheet.

[Romanov]

Dear god

Brah. You are a 50% capper. That is the worst you could possibly be. If you are a 47% capper, all you have to do is fade yourself and you profit. But you are not. You are 50%, mediocre, in an inescapable rut.

And on your remark about hitting at least 55% to be in a gambling conversation...

If someone can hit 53% and has proven it through back-testing or over a SIGNIFICANT # of plays then they are a winning gambler and could give YOU some advice that would be beneficial. Someone who has a model that hits 53% does not need a job if they have enough capital.

[k13]

53% to me means very little



Blind overs covered at like 54% last year in the NFL - it's just 1 season and really means nothing in the long term



if it was that easy to "fade the public" and make money, we would all be rich

53.8%

500 plays is not a big enough sample for you??? lol

This is NOT blindly fading the public.

[brahmabull117]

Dear god Brah. You are a 50% capper. That is the worst you could possibly be. If you are a 47% capper, all you have to do is fade yourself and you profit. But you are not. You are 50%, mediocre, in an inescapable rut. And on your remark about hitting at least 55% to be in a gambling conversation... If someone can hit 53% and has proven it through back-testing or over a SIGNIFICANT # of plays then they are a winning gambler and could give YOU some advice that would be beneficial. Someone who has a model that hits 53% does not need a job if they have enough capital.

50%?? LMAO that's like a nasty cold streak for me



I'm in such an inescapable rut that I have won my last 6 or 7 posted plays

[Romanov]

And the truth is that if you are a "capper" you cannot beat the books day in day out. You have to pick your spots VERY carefully. The only people who should be betting everyday are the mathematical bettors, the statistical bettors, the modelers (to grind out the return). You, by being a capper and going to sportscenter for your inside information, makes you a guaranteed loser in this game.

Stop being so stubborn and learn something. We are trying to help you

[hawley]

this guy is a ghost guys.

No one someone could be this retarded and such a loser at the same time.

Whoever created him has done fukn well. The story about being good looking and in good shape then posting that photo of the fat kid with the mono brow was classic

[SportsMushroom]

how can brah even talk? he goes broke gambling every other week, hides for a few days hoping people will forget his loses and come back to brag about what a gift to handicapping he is, only to lose his shirt again sooner rather than later

can we get a ban on this douchebag please?


I would not mind him exept he is too arogant and insulting to other posters which is weird cause he is a god damn loser in sports and in life

[Romanov]

50%?? LMAO that's like a nasty cold streak for me



I'm in such an inescapable rut that I have won my last 6 or 7 posted plays

Brah. going 6 or 7 is nothing. it is variance. that will happen to someone who hits 30 fukking %. If you want to see the math pm me.

I was speaking on a grander level about 50% being the rut. I am saying that YOU, with all of your power and might and capping ability, are 50%. You cannot escape it because you are not getting the info that makes the professional bettors professionals. You have neither inside info nor a model to find any edge. You are flipping coins

[allabout the $$$]

50%?? LMAO that's like a nasty cold streak for me



I'm in such an inescapable rut that I have won my last 6 or 7 posted plays

here we go again why did you stop your one and only official play thread then??? and when i checked in on your cfb plays 2 or 3 weeks ago you got buried same with your nfl why are you even in here dont you belong in the sub forum mr im not coming to players talk anymore

[Romanov]

brahma, lets do a 100 play capping challenge. You can pick whatever money lines you want. ncaab, nhl, nfl, ncaaf, tennis, whatever. most units up after those 100 plays wins. if you lose you have to leave the forum until april 15th, tax day

[hawley]

all those threads that got bumped yesterday that Brah said were free $$$ and would of gone 50% of BR on and lost yet he refuses to acknowledge them.

[SportsMushroom]

brahma, lets do a 100 play capping challenge. You can pick whatever money lines you want. ncaab, nhl, nfl, ncaaf, tennis, whatever. most units up after those 100 plays wins. if you lose you have to leave the forum until april 15th, tax day

dont do it, he'll probably want to suck your cokc if he loses

[hawley]

You know he wont accept it.

SBR is his life now since he got exposed at loveshack.org posting some fake photo.

Someone needs to take the real photo he posted here and bump those threads where he was talking shit to those women. They would not stop laughing after seeing this kid

[Sunde91]

brahm is a clown but

you must be kidding to say there's been 490 legitimate RLM plays when there's only been 582 possible plays for the whole season

[k13]

brahm is a clown but

you must be kidding to say there's been 490 legitimate RLM plays when there's only been 582 possible plays for the whole season

No, this is a combination of everything. Every game that was available to pick unless I missed a few week 1 and excludes games involving 1AA teams.

So if a big fave opens -20.5 and line moves to -24, that's the pick. Not all RLM/fade public.

Goes a little deeper but not really sure if anyone here cares.

[Sunde91]

edit: "Not all RLM/fade public" so then the point of the thread is defeated. The "line movement" plays are just artibtrary then. So you played Baylor after it moved pk to -2.5, but there's also the argument that -2.5 for a public backed home team is a weak number, a trap.

a simple review shows a lot of these aren't even anti-public

just last week

http://contests.covers.com/sportscontests/picksByDate.aspx?date=11/05/2011&ur=480388&contestID=18359&sportID=2

public backed
WSU +8.5 @Cal?
NMST +34 @UGA?

Public for sure didn't back Mizzou +2.5 @Baylor

[k13]

Read previous post. Yes it's not a "blind" fade the public thing.

There are very many public picks if the line moved with them enough.

[brahmabull117]

And the truth is that if you are a "capper" you cannot beat the books day in day out. You have to pick your spots VERY carefully. The only people who should be betting everyday are the mathematical bettors, the statistical bettors, the modelers (to grind out the return). You, by being a capper and going to sportscenter for your inside information, makes you a guaranteed loser in this game.

Stop being so stubborn and learn something. We are trying to help you

but I'm not betting on every play - on any given college football day, I might make 2 - 4 plays (that's out of what?? 100+ possible plays??)



I do pick my spots and I generally only play soft lines. I'm the first one to tell you that it's impossible to beat the books playing a ton of games because most plays are coin flips



Dude you don't need "inside info" to be a good gambler - that's like saying you need massive amounts of steroids to have any success as a weightlifter. The reason most people fail is because they can't objectively evaluate games and pick out the lines that are inaccurate, they don't handle losing well so they bet way beyond their means (I have fell in this category in the past several times which I wil admit), play way too many games or play games just to be an action junkie or because they have some sort of an emotional bias for a certain team



and don't tell me books don't release inaccurate lines - Stanford and Okie St have covered spreads at around an 80% rate for the last 2 seasons. How about San Francisco being 7-1 ATS so far this year??? Or Okie State home overs covering at about a 90% rate last 2 seasons??



Books continuously overrated or underrate certain teams - Okie St and Oklahoma have had a similar record with similar margin of victory last 2 seasons - yet OU has only covered about 55-60% of spreads while Okie St has covered about 80% of spreads - It's because Okie St continuously keeps getting bad lines by Vegas

[ttrace35]

Loveshack.org. Lol.

[k13]

and don't tell me books don't release inaccurate lines - Stanford and Okie St have covered spreads at around an 80% rate for the last 2 seasons. How about San Francisco being 7-1 ATS so far this year??? Or Okie State home overs covering at about a 90% rate last 2 seasons??



Books continuously overrated or underrate certain teams - Okie St and Oklahoma have had a similar record with similar margin of victory last 2 seasons - yet OU has only covered about 55-60% of spreads while Okie St has covered about 80% of spreads - It's because Okie St continuously keeps getting bad lines by Vegas

Books don't care if SF or Stanford are 8-0 ATS, for every 8-0 team there is an 0-8 ATS.......to them it's the long run that matters to you going 0-4 is a huge deal....

[k13]

Update from Saturday CFB just doing the same thing

58-41-1 58.59%


ATS for the season 293-250-4

Crazy to think that someone flipping coins 50/50 would have to win 43 in a ROW just to get to 54% at this high sample.

I'm started doing a CBB one since it will have a huge sample of games also. Must say it takes me hours to get all these bets in. lol