If you are betting Alabama -4 or 5 you are NOT 'Sharp'

[No coincidences]

that reverse line movement crap has been complete nonsense in college CFB this year



evaluate matchups and determine value, forget everything else. If a line is overpriced or underpriced, then bet on it... Many people have gone broke trying to interpret "line movements"

Wow.

[brahmabull117]

so many people seem to think "I'm with Vegas bro, They make tons of money and I'll make tons of money mirroring them"



They make tons of money cause the sports gambling industry is absolutely massive so if they just hit 50% ATS, they will make an absolute killing. You don't have that luxury (of being able to hit 50% and make millions) so I don't see what advantage Vegas information gives you

[No coincidences]

so many people seem to think "I'm with Vegas bro, They make tons of money and I'll make tons of money mirroring them"



They make tons of money cause the sports gambling industry is absolutely massive so if they just hit 50% ATS, they will make an absolute killing. You don't have that luxury (of being able to hit 50% and make millions) so I don't see what advantage Vegas information gives you

They make tons of money because people like you get the juice squeezed out of you when you wind up with vig all over your face. You brag about your win percentage yet you end up down because you either pay dearly to get that glossy record or you bet beyond your means and go bust because you think this is all so "easy" (your words)

I can't believe you actually took LSU tonight -- I think that's the second time I can ever remember you taking a team with a "+" in front of them.

[hawley]

so many people seem to think "I'm with Vegas bro, They make tons of money and I'll make tons of money mirroring them"



They make tons of money cause the sports gambling industry is absolutely massive so if they just hit 50% ATS, they will make an absolute killing. You don't have that luxury (of being able to hit 50% and make millions) so I don't see what advantage Vegas information gives you

You are well out of your depth bro.

Just accept you won with LSU and move on.

[No coincidences]

so many people seem to think "I'm with Vegas bro, They make tons of money and I'll make tons of money mirroring them"



They make tons of money cause the sports gambling industry is absolutely massive so if they just hit 50% ATS, they will make an absolute killing. You don't have that luxury (of being able to hit 50% and make millions) so I don't see what advantage Vegas information gives you

I give up.

[P.F.Kasooff]

I give up.

Me too! Post #1 speaks for itself

[brahmabull117]

They make tons of money because people like you get the juice squeezed out of you .

I'm not gonna bother arguing with you about my personal success in betting - I can show you pictures of my bankroll still at around $4000 dollars (which is nothing special at all, but it's still more than you've made probably in your entire lifetime of making $10 dollar bets) but you will just claim "I'm photoshopping it" or whatever



but that quote is exactly my point. Vegas doesn't beat the public in long term, they win because they charge a service fee in a massive industry that always inevitably evens out (IE public hitting 50%)



so what side the books are on, what side the public is on, etc... none of that means anything. If the public is massively on one side of a play, that just means it has a 50% chance to cover...aka worthless information

[Sunde91]

Funny that the whole notion of "sharps" is largely a social construction that come from sites like these with loshak's show and guys like lakerboy.

We have no idea who is betting what and for how much

Point to the line movementz all you want, no one is on the inside with any meaningful info that tells you what's going on. Just sitting on a computer watching a number move, which you take an infer there is someone who does have info

Show me confirmed "sharp" (anti-public/RLM) plays that win even 52.38% of the time over a sample of 300+ plays

What matters most is beating the closer and minimizing house edge/maximizing your advantage

[No coincidences]

I'm not gonna bother arguing with you about my personal success in betting - I can show you pictures of my bankroll still at around $4000 dollars (which is nothing special at all, but it's still more than you've made probably in your entire lifetime of making $10 dollar bets) but you will just claim "I'm photoshopping it" or whatever



but that quote is exactly my point. Vegas doesn't beat the public in long term, they win because they charge a service fee in a massive industry that always inevitably evens out (IE public hitting 50%)



so what side the books are on, what side the public is on, etc... none of that means anything. If the public is massively on one side of a play, that just means it has a 50% chance to cover...aka worthless information

[No coincidences]

Funny that the whole notion of "sharps" is largely a social construction that come from sites like these with loshak's show and guys like lakerboy


You have no idea who is betting what and for how much


Point to the line movementz all you want, you aren't on the inside with any meaningful info that tells you what's going on


Show me confirmed "sharp" (anti-public/RLM) plays that win even 52.38% of the time over a sample of 300+ plays


What matters most is beating the closer and minimizing house edge/maximizing your advantage

Agree on all counts except ignoring line movement, which I believe can be a useful tool in your arsenal. Not the end-all be-all mind you, but not something you just discount like brahma.

I think the mistake anti-line movement people make is assuming pro-line movement bettors expect RLM to hit 100% of the time. They exaggerate that point to feel more secure about ignoring that aspect of capping, or exaggerate how much people who follow line movement rely on that and that alone.

There is no "sharp" or "square" bet -- only winning bets and losing bets.

[brahmabull117]

Funny that the whole notion of "sharps" is largely a social construction that come from sites like these with loshak's show and guys like lakerboy


You have no idea who is betting what and for how much


Point to the line movementz all you want, you aren't on the inside with any meaningful info that tells you what's going on


Show me confirmed "sharp" (anti-public/RLM) plays that win even 52.38% of the time over a sample of 300+ plays


What matters most is beating the closer and minimizing house edge/maximizing your advantage

he's a pseudo sharp


he thinks he's getting some sort of a huge advantage by studying line movements 10 hours a day and playing nothing but anti public plays every week

[k13]

Show me confirmed "sharp" (anti-public/RLM) plays that win even 52.38% of the time over a sample of 300+ plays

I am going to show you that tomorrow.

Sample size of 450 +

[brahmabull117]

There is no "sharp" or "square" bet -- only winning bets and losing bets.

now something we can finally agree on

[No coincidences]

he's a pseudo sharp


he thinks he's getting some sort of a huge advantage by studying line movements 10 hours a day and playing nothing but anti public plays every week

Show me one post that indicates I believe I am a "sharp" bettor or that there even is such thing.

I dare you.

[No coincidences]

now something we can finally agree on

There are also educated and uneducated bettors.

You have gaping holes in your theories and understanding of how sports betting works.

[brahmabull117]

Show me one post that indicates I believe I am a "sharp" bettor or that there even is such thing. I dare you.

stop acting stupid


you're the guy who wants nothing to do with favorites 90% of the time, you'll play the ugliest damn dogs around...but the #1 team in the country getting 5 points...nah no way you can play that, there's way too much public support to play that right??

[Sunde91]

Line movment is useful yeah. You can anticipate where a line will go so you can beat it. I feel better about being on RLM side than not

Would all those who bet Bama still have bet it if the public were on them big? That's where I think it gets ridiculous if the answer is no

[No coincidences]

stop acting stupid


you're the guy who wants nothing to do with favorites 90% of the time, you'll play the ugliest damn dogs around...but the #1 team in the country getting 5 points...nah no way you can play that, there's way too much public support to play that right??

How does that make me a "sharp" or pseudo-"sharp" -- especially when I have never in my life claimed to have believed either or the idea in general? Where or why are you jumping to that conclusion?

The fact that you find it offensive that I win playing a lot of dogs and + numbers is hilarious. Are you intimidated by that or something?

[No coincidences]

Would all those who bet Bama still have bet it if the public were on them big? That's where I think it gets ridiculous if the answer is no

Hard to say -- I'm a huge home bettor so my answer would be yes personally.

[brahmabull117]

How does that make me a "sharp" or pseudo-"sharp" -- especially when I have never in my life claimed to have believed either or the idea in general? Where or why are you jumping to that conclusion?

The fact that you find it offensive that I win playing a lot of dogs and + numbers is hilarious. Are you intimidated by that or something?

why would I be intimidated by that??



It's just baffling to me how a guy who loves to play dogs wants nothing to do with the #1 team in the country getting 5 points



it's like a guy who loves steak but wants nothing to do with one of those Kobe Beef Filet Mignon steaks that taste like heaven

[brahmabull117]

Would all those who bet Bama still have bet it if the public were on them big? That's where I think it gets ridiculous if the answer is no

of course not, are you really even asking this???

[thechaoz]

I'd just like to say that was a very boring game ...throw the damn ball for christs sake

[lakerboy]

Line movment is useful yeah. You can anticipate where a line will go so you can beat it. I feel better about being on RLM side than not

Would all those who bet Bama still have bet it if the public were on them big? That's where I think it gets ridiculous if the answer is no

I took bama based on my opinion that they would get it done at home. i honestly had no clue who the public was on. i was happy that i beat the closer as that is my aim on most bets. if you beat the closer you win more than you lose

[hawley]

why would I be intimidated by that??



It's just baffling to me how a guy who loves to play dogs wants nothing to do with the #1 team in the country getting 5 points



it's like a guy who loves steak but wants nothing to do with one of those Kobe Beef Filet Mignon steaks that taste like heaven

You would feature regularly in a leader board for stupidest comparisons and things said on this forum.

[brahmabull117]

I took bama based on my opinion that they would get it done at home.

stop pretending


you know nothing about college football (which you have admitted yourself), you probably couldn't name 5 players on Bama without googling it...yet I'm supposed to believe that you, a guy who takes underdogs like 90% of the time, took an anti public home favorite because "you believed they would get it done"???

[lakerboy]

stop pretending


you know nothing about college football (which you have admitted yourself), you probably couldn't name 5 players on Bama without googling it...yet I'm supposed to believe that you, a guy who takes underdogs like 90% of the time, took an anti public home favorite because "you believed they would get it done"???

yes. i had no clue who the public was on. i bet this game cause i thought bama would get it done. if you look at all the college plays i have made this year alot of them are lesser known schools or more obscure games. If i was fading the public in ncaaf this year i would be buried.

im up 37 units in the NCAA and hitting 58%.

[BigDeem5]

LSU + the points was never really in question. Alabama hasn't played the tough schedule and no one is a better coach than Les Miles

[TheMoneyShot]

Sharp and Square were so misused in this thread... it cracks me up.

P.F. You need to stop patting yourself on the back with your Bengay.

Take your Geritol in the morning... and we'll see what NFL plays you come up with.

[AZ*SUN*iBET4FUN]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-betting/1259367-2011-nfl-ncaa-picks-lets-cash-p7.html#post12228737

Im not Sharp but am a firm believer that LSU was going to win the BCS Championship game this year.. This is the second time this season LSU has gotten points.. First time was opening weekend against the Ducks when they played at home +3 and +140 ML.. I jumped on LSU simply cause they were getting the points. Don't need to be a sharp to make a decision like that

Was on LSU +6 made this bet like 13 days before the game when it opened up a extra week early on my book at +6.. went down to +4 and back up to +5.5 right before kickoff. My book had it circled till it hit +4.. I also jumped on the ML +180.. Had to wait tho, came out around +165 and it hit +190.. Also hit the 2H +3.5... LSU Cash some serious coin tonight for me and a lot of others..

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-betting/1259367-2011-nfl-ncaa-picks-lets-cash-p7.html#post12228737

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-betting/1259367-2011-nfl-ncaa-picks-lets-cash-p7.html#post12228737

[Romanov]

look you fxckin idiot, you beat the closing line you are sharp. that is why lsu +6 is a sharp play. over the long haul, you will profit in the margins. go back go your crib

[Romanov]

stop pretending you know nothing about college football (which you have admitted yourself), you probably couldn't name 5 players on Bama without googling it...yet I'm supposed to believe that you, a guy who takes underdogs like 90% of the time, took an anti public home favorite because "you believed they would get it done"???

you don't have to know all the names if your computer does it for you

[stevenash]

Sharp and Square were so misused in this thread... it cracks me up.

P.F. You need to stop patting yourself on the back with your Bengay.

Take your Geritol in the morning... and we'll see what NFL plays you come up with.