Most important aspect when picking winners ATS?

No coincidences · 11-04-11, 05:01 PM

Interesting thread.

I like Bama. I want to take Iowa, but their kryptonite has always been mobile QB's -- even when they have the personnel to defend them. This year, they don't even have that. They should be able to move the ball on Michigan, but Denard might have a field day.

antifoil · 11-04-11, 05:26 PM

you have to be able to handicap these intangibles numerically. otherwise you are just guessing which is the same most other bettors do.

Inkwell77 · 11-04-11, 05:59 PM

While I do think you are underrating stats/trends I do think there is something here.
I have been sorta into this idea of betting against teams in "must win" games. Sort of a hard type of situation to test, but I do think there could be something.
It's not really possible in college football except potentially towards the end of the regular season when a team is on the verge of getting into a bowl game. MLB for example was good on that very last day of the regular season, would have made money. Noticed this a bit last season in college basketball. Still not really sure.

og4667 · 11-04-11, 07:03 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Interesting thread.

I like Bama. I want to take Iowa, but their kryptonite has always been mobile QB's -- even when they have the personnel to defend them. This year, they don't even have that. They should be able to move the ball on Michigan, but Denard might have a field day.

your right iowa is kinda slow but they should be inspired at home...

Originally posted by antifoil

you have to be able to handicap these intangibles numerically. otherwise you are just guessing which is the same most other bettors do.

don't know how to assign numerical values to intangibles and all gamblers are guessing...whether you have a math model, years of experience winning, etc. its all an educated guess at best.

BigDan · 11-04-11, 07:33 PM

i smoke hash until the answers come to me

in a rough patch so gonna eat a few shrooms tonight to get back on track..

All over Bama....prob passing on gb/sd gm, hell if i know, be funny to watch everyone get smoked betting GB like it free money and SD always seems to show up once everyone least expects it, just dont trust them. still early tho..

vyomguy · 11-04-11, 07:35 PM

Value of a line is the most important factor

og4667 · 11-04-11, 07:45 PM

Originally posted by vyomguy

Value of a line is the most important factor

yes its huge, to even be able to assess intangibles you need to be able to create your fair line.

jjgold · 11-04-11, 10:10 PM

I think actually knowing what happened in the previous games is important
So many teams that played bad a game or two seem to come back whether in NFL or college
Look at turnovers also, injuries

vividjohn45 · 11-04-11, 11:50 PM

Originally posted by og4667

Been doing a lot of thinking about this...

Stats/trends are not it. Everyone has the same stats, books have the stats and typically most stastical edges you see are already factored into the line.

For me, its the intangibles...granted you need some knowledge of the sport/teams to be able to evaluate intangibles but the best way I can put it is this...

Find the best/most capable team that is being doubted or disrespected by either the line and/or the betting public.

Pretty simple concept and plays with this idea or not common but when you do find them you can hit them hard.

Per these train of thought...here are the plays I came up with.

Friday: Nothing...Kent St is somewhat being disrespected by the betting public but neither of these teams are very capable in my opinion and the definition of a coinflip, I lean Kent St.... Looking at USC @ Colorado...CU is being disrespected by vegas and betting public but they stink so no play.

Saturday: 2 solid plays in my opinion. Iowa +4. Line in my opinion should Iowa -1 or pk, so we get a very capable motivated home team that is being doubted by both the books and betting public. Second pick is Bama -5...I set this line at Bama -6 so line is pretty accurate but #1 team is being doubted by the public who loves LSU getting points.

Sunday: Chargers +5 or 6. Line per my estimates is right on but we are getting a charger team coming off a loss on MNF in a game that was basically in the bag up until the last minute. Packers getting lots of love from betting public and Chargers being disrespected as a home dog. Chargers + whatever

Anyway just some thoughts but like to hear your guys thoughts on his fairly simple idea. Good luck.

-------------------------

rite so u miss ez money s.cal tonite. this happens a lot in college footbll. floridastate blew out bc this week.

and up until november the top 10 college teams hd coversed ats. 90% of the time.----

with those kind of games who gives a hoot about the dog.---------------

also i don't know of many bettors who are disrepecting. or doubting bama. this game is hype all over tv and forums.

saying its gonna be a big one. lsu hasd been #1 all season,

so bama don't fit ur criteria either.

tomcowley · 11-05-11, 12:11 AM

Ok, seriously, whatever flaming fucktard braindead dumbfuck mod is mirroring/leaving this shit and the jjgold nonsense in HTT should be tarred and feathered, drawn and quartered, and then gutshot and left to die. Grow a goddamn brain or lose your ******* hands. Either way.

JimmysEgo · 11-05-11, 12:19 AM

before the lines come out, write down your own lines for every game. then compare them to the real lines. you'll see what you like.

og4667 · 11-05-11, 12:21 AM

sure usc and fsu were easy money but so were NIU, Ohio, Miami Oh. Its all about picking winners, whether its through stats/intangibles/line movement, one needs to develop their own successful style of betting and stick to it.

MoneyLineDawg · 11-05-11, 12:54 AM

What you are basically saying is a fade of the public pretty much.....atleast that's how I read it although it is a little different

I'm up a lot this football season and have my spreadsheet to prove it (even check my log/ only a few deleted picks or edits because of mistakes from my phone)

I basically live and breathe football throughout the year (even in the offseason) and I just have a really good "feel" or instincts for teams/ situations/ recent trends for most matchups......I am very confident making football plays but not really the same confidence in any other sport for the most part.....

I look at line movements/ public percentages/ trends but I certainly don't rely on it or even put much stock into it.......I make my plays basically just off what I think will happen on the field when it all comes down to it and so far have been more right than I am wrong.....A lot of my plays are "square" and alot of them are "sharp".....After all, square plays hit alot too so there's no point in constantly second guessing yourself

I really think that there are all kinds of systems or ways that you can make money in this thing season to season........You can be a big line movement guy, follow steam, rely on trends, fade the public, hell even come up with your own system

But to really win long term in a particular sport I feel that you either need to have a ton of knowledge/ interest in the sport you're betting or just be really good at math in regards to the plays you make

Hey man, whatever works for you though GL

og4667 · 11-05-11, 01:01 AM

finding a good team that is being doubted...yes this could be viewed as fading the public but my goal is to find value in a line then check to see how betting public has reacted to my percieved value.

The idea is that if you find something with value and everyone else finds value there as well, chances are there might not have been any value to begin with.

MoneyLineDawg · 11-05-11, 01:08 AM

Originally posted by og4667

finding a good team that is being doubted...yes this could be viewed as fading the public but my goal is to find value in a line then check to see how betting public has reacted to my percieved value.

The idea is that if you find something with value and everyone else finds value there as well, chances are there might not have been any value to begin with.

OK, I gotcha, I do the same thing.....the opposite could be said as well too......Teams that are playing "above their heads" and are overvalued by the majority......I do alot of this and what you do when making my plays

blackbart · 11-05-11, 01:19 AM

dont matter who covers, if you keep betting on the value you will win long term

Nittany Lion · 11-05-11, 02:17 AM

Chargers are garbage, I expect Green Bay to pass all over them.

og4667 · 11-07-11, 12:21 PM

ok so Iowa came through...Bama sucked...chargers sucked...Ravens fit the mold and they came through...

anyway hope everyone made money this weekend.

No coincidences · 11-07-11, 12:38 PM

It's difficult to decide when a play has value vs. a line being where it is for a reason.

For instance, the K-State/A&M thread today. Are you getting "value" with Kansas State as a +5 home dog, given they're ranked and the Aggies aren't, or is it a setup? "Value" in a line is very subjective -- especially to a bunch of amateurs like ourselves who think we know more about the game and/or matchup than we actually do.

og4667 · 11-08-11, 01:15 AM

Yes value in a line is very subjective but I would say in the Kansas St situation they are being disrespected but if the majority of bets come in on them which probably will happen I would say it has no more value based purely on the perception of the masses.