Serious Gambling question......

[priskilla22]

Rangers should be favored in the series now.

[SBRMAN23]

I agree but I don't think its going to happen hmm we will see I believe yesterday they were +140 or so

[GarbageMan]

1. his potential winnings are 249750
2. -160 is not true odds

You've missed the point completely, I was talking bout the current market value of the ticket

[Blax0r]

You've missed the point completely, I was talking bout the current market value of the ticket

I agree with your reasoning; the market value of that bet ticket should just be its EV.

[GarbageMan]

I agree with your reasoning; the market value of that bet ticket should just be its EV.

I take it we can then use this market value for hedging purposes?

[GarbageMan]

also whys this been moved to players talk? more than enough content to have stayed in the think tank

[Blax0r]

I take it we can then use this market value for hedging purposes?

Wow, this is an interesting observation, and does make a lot of sense. The EV of an "in-the-money" future bet is exactly equal to the guaranteed profit of a perfect hedge, which absolutely makes it the correct market price for the bet.

So in your original -160 Cards example, the perfect hedge would involve 1) betting on a +160 Rangers and 2) determining the right amount to bet such that your profit is the same regardless of the outcome. If you do this hedge, it will return the exact same profit as the EV of your Card bet.

Definitely a good point, but I am drawing a blank where the EV of the Cards bet helps one decide the hedging allocation. I do see, however, that the EV provides a "check" to ensure that your hedge is correct.