Chicago -3 $$$$$$$

sweethook · 10-13-11, 12:27 AM

bears

bobbyk1133 · 10-13-11, 12:29 AM

Originally posted by iifold

Lose the ego's, save your cash, and make some real money on the Jets come November 6th... Good Luck

Surely since yur a King you can afford to buy an avatar without a watermark in it?

ttrace35 · 10-13-11, 12:31 AM

Originally posted by bobbyk1133

And outside of Hester what does CHI do good?

Forte will have 120+. Not including his screen yards. Why waste money on a bad team playing on the road? Doesnt make sense. If kolb wasnt horrible, minn would be 0-5.

bigsmitty · 10-13-11, 12:38 AM

Ugly. The last game was certainly not all on Cutler, which almost makes it worse. McNabb? Staying far away from this one...Cheers

bobbyk1133 · 10-13-11, 12:38 AM

Originally posted by ttrace35

Forte will have 120+. Not including his screen yards. Why waste money on a bad team playing on the road? Doesnt make sense. If kolb wasnt horrible, minn would be 0-5.

We could play the "if" game the other way and argue MIN "could" have a winning record too. The MIN D-line vs CHI O-line mismatch is too much to overlook and I'd rather take AP vs CHI's run D than Forte vs MIN's run D.

I just don't understand the love people on this forum show for CHI. They are complete garbage.

ttrace35 · 10-13-11, 12:46 AM

Originally posted by bobbyk1133

We could play the "if" game the other way and argue MIN "could" have a winning record too. The MIN D-line vs CHI O-line mismatch is too much to overlook and I'd rather take AP vs CHI's run D than Forte vs MIN's run D.

I just don't understand the love people on this forum show for CHI. They are complete garbage.

I hate chicago and cutler. But after watching mcnabb last week, im convinced hes done. Shut down AP and game is over.

iifold · 10-13-11, 12:47 AM

Originally posted by bobbyk1133

We could play the "if" game the other way and argue MIN "could" have a winning record too. The MIN D-line vs CHI O-line mismatch is too much to overlook and I'd rather take AP vs CHI's run D than Forte vs MIN's run D.

I just don't understand the love people on this forum show for CHI. They are complete garbage.

Bears are garbage??

They won 11 games last year...

The 3 losses they have this year are against 3 of the Top 5 Teams in the NFL...

They play at home, Home Field gives the offensive and defensive lines a huge advantage, since everyone wants to talk about the lines...

The Falcons have Turner, what did he do in Chicago?

How many points did the Falcons get in Chicago? Your not gonna sit here and tell me you'd rather have the Vikings offense instead of the Falcons??

AP is not going to beat the Bears, they will force Mcnabb to beat them...

Good Luck

bobbyk1133 · 10-13-11, 12:54 AM

Originally posted by iifold

Bears are garbage?? They won 11 games last year... The 3 losses they have this year are against 3 of the Top 5 Teams in the NFL... They play at home, Home Field gives the offensive and defensive lines a huge advantage, since everyone wants to talk about the lines... The Falcons have Turner, what did he do in Chicago? How many points did the Falcons get in Chicago? Your not gonna sit here and tell me you'd rather have the Vikings offense instead of the Falcons?? AP is not going to beat the Bears, they will force Mcnabb to beat them... Good Luck

You're using an underachieving ATL team to validate CHI?

CHI were also overrated last year..this year they aren't getting the same breaks and you're seeing what they are really all about.

Side by side MIN and CHI are pretty equivalent, but head to head the matchups favor MIN.

LT Profits · 10-13-11, 12:57 AM

I repeat, the Bears may be the most overrated team in the NFL. They overachieved last year and are returning to their proper level this year. They will finish 7-9 at best, quite possibly 6-10. And don't bring the Falcons into this argument because they are overrated too. Stopping Turner is a lot easier than stopping AP. Yes, the Bears have faced a tough schedule, but their weaknesses are real. They can't block on offense and can't stop the run on defense, and those things won't change even against lesser teams than what they have been facing.

LT Profits · 10-13-11, 12:57 AM

Me and bobby thinking alike.

GunShard · 10-13-11, 01:00 AM

I am avoiding this game.
You should record your weekly locks.

bobbyk1133 · 10-13-11, 01:02 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Me and bobby thinking alike.

Miracles do happen

iifold · 10-13-11, 01:03 AM

Originally posted by bobbyk1133

You're using an underachieving ATL team to validate CHI?

CHI were also overrated last year..this year they aren't getting the same breaks and you're seeing what they are really all about.

Side by side MIN and CHI are pretty equivalent, but head to head the matchups favor MIN.

WTF are you talking about Pal??

Their not getting the same breaks??

They beat everyone they were supposed to beat... They lost to the Packers, Saints and Lions...

The Bears are a good football team, they are playing at home... there are maybe 7 teams that they wouldn't be favored over at home... And trust me, the Vikings aren't one of them...

You're not telling me the Vikings should be favored here? are you?

This alone proves you guys are reaching...

bobbyk1133 · 10-13-11, 01:08 AM

Originally posted by iifold

WTF are you talking about Pal?? Their not getting the same breaks?? They beat everyone they were supposed to beat... They lost to the Packers, Saints and Lions... The Bears are a good football team, they are playing at home... there are maybe 7 teams that they wouldn't be favored over at home... And trust me, the Vikings aren't one of them... You're not telling me the Vikings should be favored here? are you? This alone proves you guys are reaching...

This has all the makings of an ugly game. Both O-lines are crap, both defenses are average. All I'm saying is that clearcut advantages favor MIN. For me that means CHI shouldn't be granted 3 points to be favored simply for home field advantage. I'd have this game at a PK or MIN -1.

LT Profits · 10-13-11, 01:10 AM

Neither Bobby or I said the Vikings should be favored, these teams are about equal, so Chicago -3 at home is the right line. It is just the matchups of strengths vs. weaknesses in this game favors Minnesota.

LT Profits · 10-13-11, 01:12 AM

OK, Bobby and I disagree on the line, I think Chi -3 is the right number.

bobbyk1133 · 10-13-11, 01:15 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

OK, Bobby and I disagree on the line, I think Chi -3 is the right number.

-3 would be the right number if the matchups pretty much evened out, which I think they don't. Public perception dictates what the line on the board is..

iifold · 10-13-11, 01:16 AM

Well,

I think the True line is Bears -6...

Thats why I thinks it's worth a play...

You guys are saying you think the line is right and still are playing the game..

You just admitted to giving the books 10%...

the_orangekat · 10-13-11, 01:18 AM

Thinking Vikes upset here fellas, may take the 3.

LT Profits · 10-13-11, 01:19 AM

Originally posted by iifold

Well,

I think the True line is Bears -6...

Thats why I thinks it's worth a play...

You guys are saying you think the line is right and still are playing the game..

You just admitted to giving the books 10%...

You DO realize that thinking a line is right at liking a side are two different things right? I knew this line would be about where it is (so think the line is right) and I still think Minny wins straight up.

iifold · 10-13-11, 01:23 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

You DO realize that thinking a line is right at liking a side are two different things right? I knew this line would be about where it is (so think the line is right) and I still think Minny wins straight up.

So you think the line is wrong?

Thats what I was asking in the first place...

bobbyk1133 · 10-13-11, 01:28 AM

Originally posted by iifold

Well, I think the True line is Bears -6... Thats why I thinks it's worth a play... You guys are saying you think the line is right and still are playing the game.. You just admitted to giving the books 10%...

I"m saying the line is wrong which makes it a play for me. If the line was right it would be a pass or a tease.

LT Profits · 10-13-11, 01:30 AM

I am saying there is a disconnect between the power ratings (Bears -3 looks right on with HFA) and the matchups in this game.

LT Profits · 10-13-11, 01:38 AM

Originally posted by bobbyk1133

If the line was right it would be a pass or a tease.

Well.......remember that power ratings are based on a team's overall performance, so even if a line is "right" based on power ratings, you may still get a case like this where one team's strengths matches up well with the other team's weaknesses, even if the overall PRs are even.

bobbyk1133 · 10-13-11, 01:42 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Well.......remember that power ratings are based on a team's overall performance, so even if a line is "right" based on power ratings, you may still get a case like this where one team's strengths matches up well with the other team's weaknesses, even if the overall PRs are even.

True but power ratings aren't the be-all-end-all in creating a line...

LT Profits · 10-13-11, 02:02 AM

Originally posted by bobbyk1133

True but power ratings aren't the be-all-end-all in creating a line...

But they are weighted most heavily.

ACoochy · 10-13-11, 02:36 AM

Trigger im gonna follow based on this.
Trigger, dont fukkin burial me here pal....

k13 · 10-13-11, 07:00 AM

Originally posted by iifold

There is a reason Tracer and iifold are SBR's top 2 NFL Handicappers...

We watch the games...

You guys watch stat sheets and line movement...

Can't Wait!!

If you only knew the record of games from line movement off key numbers....

You look at short term results and pound your chest when you win a game like giants/arizona.

Best play here is Minny ML to maximize profit long-term. Don't even care if they lose by a 100 this sunday.

ttrace35 · 10-13-11, 07:10 AM

Originally posted by k13

If you only knew the record of games from line movement off key numbers....

You look at short term results and pound your chest when you win a game like giants/arizona.

Best play here is Minny ML to maximize profit long-term. Don't even care if they lose by a 100 this sunday.

Following line movement would have got you buried so far this year. You will lose your bet k13. Check back in sunday nite and take your lumps

ttrace35 · 10-13-11, 07:16 AM

Originally posted by k13

If you only knew the record of games from line movement off key numbers....

You look at short term results and pound your chest when you win a game like giants/arizona.

Best play here is Minny ML to maximize profit long-term. Don't even care if they lose by a 100 this sunday.

Also, that giant/arizona game was one game. I pound my chest when I go heavy on a winless team and win big. I cant wait til you lose. Maybe you will stop with the bullshit.

ezmoney · 10-13-11, 09:39 AM

Bears defense will show up sun, just like opening day when they whacked ATL.

Bears 9-1 SU vs Min at home, McNabb washed up. Lovie loses, he's gone.
Team will be MOTIVATED.

Bears -3 a gift!

EZ

ncsubowen · 10-13-11, 09:49 AM

Damn Trace this is one of the only games this year I've been on the other side of you and I hate it. I've already got money down or else it would have been a no play for me.

BOL anyway, maybe I'll get lucky on one of the few you get wrong.

actiondan · 10-13-11, 10:00 AM

Bears have historically handled MINN at home -3 is too low

ttrace35 · 10-13-11, 01:42 PM

Originally posted by ncsubowen

Damn Trace this is one of the only games this year I've been on the other side of you and I hate it. I've already got money down or else it would have been a no play for me.

BOL anyway, maybe I'll get lucky on one of the few you get wrong.

Good luck homie. I wouldnt trust mcnabb on the road.

bobbyk1133 · 10-13-11, 02:17 PM

Originally posted by ttrace35

I wouldnt trust mcnabb on the road.

I'm not sure if anybody trusts Mcnabb at home OR on the road

but if we shied away from every QB we don't trust there would only be about 10 teams to bet on.

Case in point I went with DAL this week but don't ask me how comfortable I feel with $$ on Romo