If you played the over in every NFL Game

acampbell2345 · 10-10-11, 09:59 AM

How did week one do? If I remember correctly overs won big also

SCRAGGS · 10-10-11, 10:00 AM

fixed

acampbell2345 · 10-10-11, 10:04 AM

Great stat scraggs....so my question is why haven't the books adjusted properly? Usually there'd may be one or two outliers but 4 out of 5 weeks is pretty significant especially

I would expect that stat to shift pretty heavy the next few weeks. Will be interesting to look back in a week or two and compare.

ebbearsfb1 · 10-10-11, 10:06 AM

I lost a teaser at the end cause of the under bengals/jags ... awful beat

Reload · 10-10-11, 10:09 AM

Been a big season for the over's. Shows why books have to take lower maximums on totals.

No coincidences · 10-10-11, 10:10 AM

Honestly, I don't even bother with totals anymore in the NFL. Used to love them, but it's a joke now. If you're an "under"taker like me, it's not even worth the effort.

Glitch · 10-10-11, 10:15 AM

maybe theres more time in the game because of all the touchbacks.

daimoshokage · 10-10-11, 10:18 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Honestly, I don't even bother with totals anymore in the NFL. Used to love them, but it's a joke now. If you're an "under"taker like me, it's not even worth the effort.

This idiot bet on Broncos +4.5 and Broncos ML.. what a hamburger..

ncsubowen · 10-10-11, 10:27 AM

Daimo you lose bets all the time, why do you jump all over No Coin every time he does?

Seriously. Step off. It's pathetic.

SCRAGGS · 10-10-11, 10:35 AM

adjustment comming, qb's are soo much better this year, passing yards out of controll.
defenses suck.

but untill adjustment keep hammering the overs.

No coincidences · 10-10-11, 10:37 AM

Originally posted by SCRAGGS

adjustment comming, qb's are soo much better this year, passing yards out of controll.
defenses suck.

but untill adjustment keep hammering the overs.

Quarterbacks are protected too much, DB's get flagged for pass interference because of the tantrums receivers throw on basically every route, and kickers make everything these days.

yisman · 10-10-11, 10:38 AM

Why are you including if teased? Teasers are only winners if the only leg won.

arnoldrothstein · 10-10-11, 10:40 AM

No fukking shit the NFL is a joke goddell has neutered the defense and turned this league into arena football. It suxs rooster this league. Rbs are irrelevant in this new league name me one relevant rb. You don't even need a good running back. You can't hit anyone without getting flagged or fined. Pussy league

arnoldrothstein · 10-10-11, 10:42 AM

Goodell needs to go he's a piece of shit that is ruining this league

SCRAGGS · 10-10-11, 10:43 AM

Originally posted by yisman

Why are you including if teased? Teasers are only winners if the only leg won.

point being if you tease totals they win at clip of 81.5%, so pick any 2 random
totals and it wins 81.5 % of the time. Even you know that is pretty pretty pretty
good.

again no capping auto over and count the cash.

wantitall4moi · 10-10-11, 10:55 AM

do a search I said for the first 5 weeks bet overs blindly. I did. I have 50 and 26 right now, basically 66%. Only other bets I have made were two ML bets on Colts. NFL is for suckers unless they make rule changes that effect how the game is played. This year they had that as well as a lock out which put defenses way behind the curve. Then an added bonus on top of that is that everyone is throwing the ball and no one is trying to run it. So you have longer games, more clock stoppages and more scoring in general.

But since they dont seem to stop I say ride the overs until it looks like they might not be coming in anymore, which I am not sure will happen. Game is totally different now and unless books start posting totals in the 50s and 60s every week you cant not keep taking the over, and even then 60 might not be enough in certain match ups.

obviously weather will start playing an issue in a couple weeks, but until then I am just going to free roll overs until I see a reason not to.

I am just gambling for fun right now and have basically made more money in the NFL this year than I have in maybe a decade. Mostly because I never really bet the NFL hard in the first place and secondarily because I am a genius and spotted something that would be so easy to beat you could bet it blind and do well. Obviously 66% is more than expected, but the fact that it would be profitable wasnt.

But the ability to recognize those sorts of things separates the really smart guys from the guys who claim to be smart and look for edges or "+ev" in a small subset. When you can look at the sport as a whole and recognize a glaring hole in the way the game changed, and then take advantage of it you show you have more smarts than most people. Mostly because a lot of guys might TALK about it, only the really smart ones actually do it.

Either way it is sort of like the gold market when gold was 1200 an ounce, not a horrible time to get in but you have left a lot of profits on the table by not getting in sooner. I figure you might be able to grind it 3 more weeks with a small profit margin, after that you will have to watch weather and start maybe picking and choosing, and then it stops being automatic and starts letting opinion and 'handicapping' seep in. Which isnt a good thing when you have an approach that cant lose without those things interfering.

Glitch · 10-10-11, 10:57 AM

"if teased" how much?
........................................ ...

over teaser was pretty much the only multi-team bet i won yesterday

they are beginning to adjust the number already- week 1 we saw it around 40 and this past week a lot more were around 50. and now after this thread they will be around 54 to 57

priskilla22 · 10-10-11, 12:01 PM

Originally posted by arnoldrothstein

No fukking shit the NFL is a joke goddell has neutered the defense and turned this league into arena football. It suxs rooster this league. Rbs are irrelevant in this new league name me one relevant rb. You don't even need a good running back. You can't hit anyone without getting flagged or fined. Pussy league

A relevant RB?

My Bears would probably go 1-15 without Matt Forte.

laclippers504 · 10-10-11, 12:21 PM

Whoa

Domestic · 10-10-11, 12:43 PM

Vegas is being stubborn and not adjusting totals lines this season.

neverstoppers23 · 10-10-11, 12:47 PM

so basically take a progressive teaser, and the worst thing that happens is you break even.

Waterstpub87 · 10-10-11, 01:40 PM

Originally posted by SCRAGGS

point being if you tease totals they win at clip of 81.5%, so pick any 2 random totals and it wins 81.5 % of the time. Even you know that is pretty pretty pretty good. again no capping auto over and count the cash.

If an individual leg wins 81.5% of the time, the entire bet wouldn't win 81.5% of the time. If that holds true it would be .815/1*.815/1= 64.42% of the time. Still an impressive fact.

SCRAGGS · 10-10-11, 05:54 PM

water, true, but i was trying to make a biger point.