SBR_John special: Oklahoma vs Texas in SBR Sportsbook

[d2bets]

The middle is profitable (worth 40¢, priced at 30¢) and now that the market line has moved to 10.5 both sides are +EV (with OK being the better of the two).

Why is OK the better of the two? If the current market price (-10.5-103/+10.5-107 @Pinny) is accurate, then +12.5-115 is better than -9.5-115.

[ThaddeusB]

Why is OK the better of the two? If the current market price (-10.5-103/+10.5-107 @Pinny) is accurate, then +12.5-115 is better than -9.5-115.

The 10 is worth (slightly) more than the 11 & 12 combined. I was assuming fair price of 10.5 +100 (was -105 on both sides at the time). However at 10.5 it is very close between the sides, so as the lean changes the better value will change. With the current 2 cent lean, both sides are exactly the same, 2% EV, based on the chart I use (different charts will differ slightly).

Thaddeus

[mattmc419]

500x2 for me I believe ... was a potential box play for me anyway - MattMC take note ...

haha I think they made this line for you

[stevenash]

Every time I take one of these I lose :-)

That's why he offers it.

[roundcake]

haha yup

[benjy]

Cool offer. On the middle myself.

[d2bets]

The 10 is worth (slightly) more than the 11 & 12 combined. I was assuming fair price of 10.5 +100 (was -105 on both sides at the time). However at 10.5 it is very close between the sides, so as the lean changes the better value will change. With the current 2 cent lean, both sides are exactly the same, 2% EV, based on the chart I use (different charts will differ slightly).

Thaddeus

Then explain why Pinnacle dropdown has -9.5 at -127 and +12.5 at -135 (this was at -103/-107)? At -105 both ways it should be around -129 and -133 i.e. slightly more value on the 12.5.

[chachi]

STRAIGHT BET Oct 08 CFB [8587] OKLAHOMA -9½-115 500.00 SBR / 434.78 SBR 1002666
STRAIGHT BET Oct 08 CFB [8588] TEXAS +12½-115 500.00 SBR / 434.78 SBR 1002667

effectively risk 65 for 870 ...

anytime you want to give me odds like this on one of my 3 point box shot candidates John, just let me know

[Cookie Monster]

STRAIGHT BET Oct 08 CFB [8587] OKLAHOMA -9½-115 500.00 SBR / 434.78 SBR 1002666
STRAIGHT BET Oct 08 CFB [8588] TEXAS +12½-115 500.00 SBR / 434.78 SBR 1002667

effectively risk 65 for 870 ...

anytime you want to give me odds like this on one of my 3 point box shot candidates John, just let me know

If you like the bet so much, you could risk 575 to win 500. Many people forget that the max are "to win" in minus lines. I remember that some guys did not believe me when I said that I lost 8000 points in a NBA moneyline when the max bet was 2000. The line was -400, so that bet was within limits.

Go ahead and place the other 75 points on each side. I remember that there was a bug that calculated wrongly the limits on bets split on parts, but looks like it is fixed now.

[chachi]

I know and still might, but I like a handful of others and might otherwise deploy the 400 odd Ive got left

[infamousbacardi]

The sharp play here is the middle. A 10 point favorite is going to land on 10, 11 or 12 at a very profitable clip and then you win both sides.

Haha...says they guy who stands to win when OU rolls this weekend. lol

[SBR_John]

Haha...says they guy who stands to win when OU rolls this weekend. lol

I'm a huge Longhorn fan. Next year the Horns will be complete. But this go around Okla has a defense that will shut down Tex's running game and to me that's the key. Texas gets worn down on defense and the rest will be history.

[infamousbacardi]

I'm a huge Longhorn fan. Next year the Horns will be complete. But this go around Okla has a defense that will shut down Tex's running game and to me that's the key. Texas gets worn down on defense and the rest will be history.

I live in San Antonio, looking forward to the game...Longhorns may compete, but Sooners are definitely too much at end of day...

[d2bets]

In at +13-115

[robertg]

Nice offer, thanks!

[KGambler]

Thanks.

Right now you got NL Pennant and World Series futures still listed, and Arizona and Milwaukee are in the 4th inning.

[SBR_John]

Hookem!

[70kgman]

John is going to clean up on this one.

[chachi]

nah .... TX puts 4 TDs up unanswered and the middle is golden

[wantitall4moi]

LOL I like the math guys with thier stats and odds calculators putting out the usual make believe bullshit they always do. John could have thrown up Okl -10 and tex +35 and still made the same as he did here, and I am sure with Pinnacle at -10 obviously +35 would have 'enormous value' but guess what, it still lost. So take what this book has compared to ther books and keep trying ot make it a handicapping or betting tool.

Thats why trying to predict or give a value to a line that books make in the first place is dumb and a waste of time. Sure some lines are close, but that is mostly dumb luck and volume rather than them actually getting close to a prediction. If books were so good at putting up lines that were predictions you could make a mint middling games off line moves. But you cant, which means the lines generally arent even close. So trying to 'value' them just isnt going to work.

If someone posted Tex +20 before game time everyone and their brother would have bet it I am sure, then gone somewhere else and bet Ok -10. And I am sure everyone would say that the Texas +20 had the most 'value'. But it didnt because it lost. -10 really didnt have 'value' either. There is only a value to something when you can compare it to something else on the opposite side. And then its 'value' still isnt what you think it is most of the time.

Either way just keep trying to look at why X is more of a value than Y and see how far it gets you. Thats why these guys are awesome about talking about stuff but when they actually try and bet what they talk about they get buried.

Because rather than simply looking at two teams and seeing one was vastly superior to the other and thinking 10 points was too few guys have to dick around with "well if I can get 3 more points then the other side has 'value'" They could have had 33 and that last TD they scored would have been the back door. Obviously easy after the game is over, but guys who make a living doing this stuff bet Ok every day of the week in that spot and at that number.

Since that one was such a joke he should do the same thing With Nebraska and OSU. Same spread similar result I would imagine. But then you guys could debate whether OSU +13 (fantasy line) was better than Nebraska when Nebraska opened -9.

[yisman]

Ugh. I didn't even go for a middle. I just took Texas and lost.

[sportsfanatic]

Ugh. I didn't even go for a middle. I just took Texas and lost.

i thought texas was the better value too.

[yisman]

It clearly was, but the best value often loses.

[SBR_John]

Well you guys got us back on blackjack Monday night so let's call it even.

Look for an all Michigan special this week!