Yankees +120 versus Verlander

[Glitch]

kinda stupid to make a a big bet on this game- 2 of the MLBs best pitchers and 2 of the MLB's best lineups. nobody really knows whats going to happen- theres not really an edge.

i do however understand betting on a game to make it interesting because one want to watch it.

[paco]

@ Todd, yea, 26 game winner who throws high 90's in the 9th is getting too much credit. And yea, the CY Young at home at -130 is insane?

[OTL]

Game is a toss up, so why take a side?

[toddorts]

Game is a toss up, so why take a side?

If you think a game is a 50/50 shot, and one is paying out 1.2 for 1, that's a pretty easy call.

[toddorts]

@ Todd, yea, 26 game winner who throws high 90's in the 9th is getting too much credit. And yea, the CY Young at home at -130 is insane?

It's not all about him. Yes, he's an incredible pitcher, but he can't make up for the fact that the Tigers just don't have near the hitting that the Yankees do. Verlander can suppress their runs, but he can't hold them back enough to win this game for the Tigers enough of the time to make the -130 line make sense. All Verlander can do is make it an even match.

[BetterBizness]

JV @ Home = Cash Machine...
CC is obviously making it hard though... Likely pass... Degen in me bets live the the team that allows the first run... now THAT's Value!!!

[DDT]

I like Verlander here

[paco]

It's not all about him. Yes, he's an incredible pitcher, but he can't make up for the fact that the Tigers just don't have near the hitting that the Yankees do. Verlander can suppress their runs, but he can't hold them back enough to win this game for the Tigers enough of the time to make the -130 line make sense. All Verlander can do is make it an even match.

Have u watched the last part of baseball? Tigers batters such as Cabrera, Vmart, Avilla have been as hot if not hotter than any team. Dude, look at the avg of runs Tigers put up all last 2 months. We have enough firepower offensively. Even Young took fat hamburger CC deep in game 1, and we don't even depend on him

[RMStanley]

The Yankees lineup is about 3 times as good as Detroit's.

Verlander is just a smidge better than CC. I think the value is with the Yanks and I agree with Lakerboi.

[obamaismyuncle]

no way would i fade the cy young winner at home at this price. Just wouldnt make sense...

[No coincidences]

It's not all about him. Yes, he's an incredible pitcher, but he can't make up for the fact that the Tigers just don't have near the hitting that the Yankees do. Verlander can suppress their runs, but he can't hold them back enough to win this game for the Tigers enough of the time to make the -130 line make sense. All Verlander can do is make it an even match.

Total myth.

[lemart5]

I have Deteoit winning by atleast 8 runs

[Allure]

Cano & Granderson. Scratch the rest. Jeter might get a single. A-Rod. Is A-Rod still playing baseball?
Detroit. Cabrera, V-Mart, Avila. Young ain't bad as well. Verlander.
But wait. Don't the Yanks have Posada? Man, tough game guy is a beast.

[Glitch]

texiera is one of the most deadly of them all. cant forget him.

[face]

jeter .297 gardner .259 too, that's not bad. basically every yankee hitter is a pain in the ass to get out. verlander will get tired. yankees + rangers parlay.

[No coincidences]

The Yankees lineup is about 3 times as good as Detroit's.

Wow.

[lemart5]

Tigers will win by 13 runs atleast

[paco]

Comerica Park ain't a tiny stadium like Yankees stadium either. FUCKEN 315 down the line at Yankee stadium, thas a regular fly ball at Comerica

[toddorts]

Have u watched the last part of baseball? Tigers batters such as Cabrera, Vmart, Avilla have been as hot if not hotter than any team. Dude, look at the avg of runs Tigers put up all last 2 months. We have enough firepower offensively. Even Young took fat hamburger CC deep in game 1, and we don't even depend on him

Since you're on a sports betting site instead of a sports fan site, I assume you're familiar with the concept of "regression towards the mean." As any experienced baseball bettor knows, in no sport is that concept more important than baseball. Assuming that a short-term hot streak is going to continue is a common way to lose money in any form of sports betting. Looking past the short time period that you're focusing on, the Tigers just haven't had the batting ability that the Yankees do. They will regress towards the mean. It may be this game, or it may be the next, but it's going to happen, and over the long haul, the people who bet based on that fact are the ones who will make the most money.

Total myth.

Not a myth at all. It's all in the numbers. Against good pitching, the Tigers have put up about 3.9 runs per 9 innings of play this season. On the other hand, against good pitching, the Yankees have put up about 4.3 runs per 9 innings of play. That extra 10% is big in a matchup like this. Now, the Tigers do get a correction for home field advantage, but all that really does is even the match up. The dog is the smart play, in my opinion.

[SmartInvestment]

I like the over at 7 in nearly every game. Look at all these games going over!

[No coincidences]

Assuming that a short-term hot streak is going to continue is a common way to lose money in any form of sports betting.

What about Detroit's success qualifies as a "short term hot streak"?

[freakydave]

Im on the NYY win or lose CC is good value ++ML--Verlander hasn't pitched on short rest & CC has I'll take the Yanks.

[toddorts]

What about Detroit's success qualifies as a "short term hot streak"?

He was talking about their hitting ability over the past couple of months. Obviously the Tigers have had a great season. The question is whether their batting against a good pitcher can hold up to the Yankees' batting against good pitching. Maybe, but not at -130 odds.

[benjy]

Good discussion for a PT thread once the trolls let up.

The line seems fair to me. Verlander having an edge over CC, the Yanks bats being marginally better even taking into consideration L vs R #'s for both teams, the home field advantage.

I'm staying away. Were I to place a bet on the game I'd take the dog, whoever it was.

[paco]

Todd, what's hamburger CC's playoff #'s?

[toddorts]

Todd, what's hamburger CC's playoff #'s?

There aren't enough data points to make it statistically significant. You can data mine all you want to support your home team. Fine by me. But the fact remains that both Sabathia and Verlander are solid pitcher, and the Yankees do better against good pitching than the Tigers do. But if data mining is your game, then Sabathia has an ERA of 3.2 during postseason appearances over the past three seasons. And by the way, what is Verlander's postseason pitching record? Oh, that's right, he hasn't seen a postseason since he was a pup. But that isn't really statistically significant, either. See how easy it is to find a statistic that supports your position?

[pattymayo]

Boys lets keep in mind CC has an option after this year and will most likely opt out seeking more $ and more years on his contract. If he goes out and pitches a gem tonight, he's basically written his future contract and Yanks will pay him whatever he wants. CC will come out fukkin determined today and will throw lights out, maybe giving up 1 or 2 runs thats all. He will keep the Yanks in this game. The question is ----- will the Yanks get to Verlander?

Lets not forget the Yankees have hit Verlander this year, granted it was months ago, but he's got a 4.50 ERA this year against the Yankees.

I like the Yankees tonight. And the Under

One more thing: Verlander is pitching on 3 days rest. When's the last time Verlander pitched on 3 days rest????

[Boltafied]

no way would i fade the cy young winner at home at this price. Just wouldnt make sense...

Thats what I'm sayin...

24 game winner
still can gas it up 98+ in the later innings
at home after a good win at Yankee staduim
CC has had his hiccups this season (not as dominating as he's been in past)

Yankees are desperate..they know they got problems tonight. No one else can pitch outside of CC. They probably wish CC could go every night .

Price is too good to NOT go with Detroit. Might be a classic though if CC is on, but don't question Detroit's hitting. Those cats can tear you apart...ask headhunter J. Weaver .

[lakerboy]

Pac how much u got on det?

[jjgold]

Lakerboy I would not want to be in your shoes today

If you lose this bet your going to get hammered real bad

[lakerboy]

Lakerboy I would not want to be in your shoes today

If you lose this bet your going to get hammered real bad

Oh I know I know. I never give up though. No days off.

[moo3885]

Pitching duel, Sabathia for a new contract, Verlander Cy young.

Yankees bats are cold, confidence is with Tigers goin home after just winning a huge game. Sabathia can't pitch to the Tigers look up the stats, his ERA is like 4

If ur gonna play my thesis, parlay Detriot amd under 7 for 3.5 to 1 odds which I think is a great value to possibly cash in on a close low scoring game where the Tigers win.

I got 300 to win 1055

[DwightShrute]

Yankees bats are cold

game 1 - 9 runs scored
game 2 - 3 runs scored

[tony_come]

Taking tigers

Monday

[moo3885]

That wasnt against the best pitcher in the league at home...

A Rods shut down
Texaira has 1 hit in the playoffs

Only weapon they have is Granderson and Cano who get struck out and haven't hit against Verlander all year and avg less than .200 against Verlander overall.

Meanwhile the Tigers have consistently had CC's number this year and for as long as I can remember.