I Made $23,500 this month; what's my next move?

[Sabermetrician]

I'm a relatively long-time member of this forum. I've made a new name to make this post because my old handle was highly recognizable to anyone who knows me.

Now, I come to this portion of the forum to help me determine the merits of my options going forward.

Just less than 30 days ago, I made a deposit of around $800 into my sportsbook. Over that time, I've slowly (and surely) built the bankroll to just more than $23,500. I bet primarily baseball and college football, as those are my bread and butter. I have, in the past, developed a baseball model. I dry-tested it for two seasons and it came out significantly ahead betting large volume (~1500 bets/season). Last season, using a .4 Kelly bankroll plan, it produced 525% return on the original stake.

I've used a hybrid of my model and some of my other (untested) philosophies in this run. My run to $23.5k included only one "big hit" (a $2,000 parlay that brought the balance to $5k). From there, it's been steady growth at this point, with my average bet size sitting somewhere in the 2% range.

Now, I'm not sure my next move. I've consistently won over the years. My problem to this point has been money management, as immaturity has caused me to chase losses and greed has caused me to overbet at times. For the first time, I'm taking money management seriously and treating this thing as an investment account.

This money is significantly life money for someone in my position. I'm in graduate school, with the real job world looming in just less than 2 years. I didn't expect to make $23k in one month, but now I don't know whether to take it out and take some pressure off of myself for a couple of years, or whether I should continue pushing forward.

The other worry, of course, is having that type of money sitting in a sportsbook where anything could happen to it.

What say ye, board?

[d1no]

First of all, congrats on that. Why not take out $15-20k and keep the rest to keep betting with? You started with 800 you said anyway right? I see the best of both worlds here.

[frankthetank]

what sportsbook? are you sure they pay out? also, take half out and play the other half. $23K is not life changing money. It aint what it used to be no matter what position you are in life. just IMO

[GunShard]

I say just redo the $800 tactic, withdraw your profits.

[deadman]

Hello Sabermetrician,
Congratulations!

I have a question:
And this your sportbook does not cut down your maximum limits?

[deadman]

And one more question:
Does Will Hill cut down the maximum limits if you're winning big?

Somebody tell - WillHill never cut off maximum limits to successful playres. Somebody tell - They cut off as soon as possible...

[Sabermetrician]

I'm playing at Heritage. I'm hopeful that I'll run into no problems withdrawing. I've not had my limits cut, but the majority of my bets are less than $500 anyway. I'm fearful that a limit cut is coming.

[katstale]

Pull 9500 and keep doing what you are doing. Don't discuss it with anyone and when you get ahead that much again keep pulling 9500. Rinse and repeat. If this goes on thru football season PM me and I will help you further.

[wantitall4moi]

Pretty easy answer here. Take the money out and either start over or stop all together.

Since you seem like a long term gambler I doubt the latter would be an option.

The only issue with the full withdrawal is that if you cant repeat the results (which isnt likely) you might just nibble that amount to death with what you think are 'meaningless' reloads, but after 10 of them you have lost 8K back.

So the absolute best approach might be to just take out what you need, and play with the remainder, with the plan that if that gets eliminated you call it a day and are happy with what you got out.

It takes discipline either way. But if you leave more than a minimal amount in there it at least gives you the perspective that you made an 'honest' effort and failed and didnt try to continue to make money on the cheap. So the failure is a little more realistic and you wont have to try and convince yourself that if you had only started with a larger amount it would have been different. Because you did start with a larger amount and still failed.

I am using a lot of negative terms, but that is the 'secret'. After short term successes people ALWAYS fall into the mind set that they have it figured out and that caution isnt necessary anymore and they only need to spend more to make more. Thats why books win...greed. So always looking at the worst case scenario is the best way to stay grounded.

But if you have done it for awhile and have shown a constant ability to profit then you should also know that a short term burst is the norm, and really shouldnt change anything you have done up until now.

[TomG]

There are two right answers here.

1) Assuming you have a successful model...

Withdrawal only if you use the funds to deposit at another sports book. If you indeed have built a winning model, it's a travesty not to take advantage of it. You were very fortunate this month. You're unlikely to repeat that performance. You'll now need that capital to grind out a smaller, more realistic profit over the future months and years.

2) Assuming you just got lucky...

Withdrawal all but whatever amount you need to continue betting as a form of entertainment. Put the money towards paying off your student loans/debt.

[mp5070]

[infamousbacardi]

Take out half by w/d $2,999 each month, then go for the gusto w/ the rest...if you lose, you still got your $10k out of it for financial security as a grad student (say your car takes a shit, etc.), and even after the withdrawals, you'll still have a decent size bankroll to keep running through the motions of your systems....

[Pancho sanza]

Pretty easy answer here. Take the money out and either start over or stop all together.

Since you seem like a long term gambler I doubt the latter would be an option.

The only issue with the full withdrawal is that if you cant repeat the results (which isnt likely) you might just nibble that amount to death with what you think are 'meaningless' reloads, but after 10 of them you have lost 8K back.

So the absolute best approach might be to just take out what you need, and play with the remainder, with the plan that if that gets eliminated you call it a day and are happy with what you got out.

It takes discipline either way. But if you leave more than a minimal amount in there it at least gives you the perspective that you made an 'honest' effort and failed and didnt try to continue to make money on the cheap. So the failure is a little more realistic and you wont have to try and convince yourself that if you had only started with a larger amount it would have been different. Because you did start with a larger amount and still failed.

I am using a lot of negative terms, but that is the 'secret'. After short term successes people ALWAYS fall into the mind set that they have it figured out and that caution isnt necessary anymore and they only need to spend more to make more. Thats why books win...greed. So always looking at the worst case scenario is the best way to stay grounded.

But if you have done it for awhile and have shown a constant ability to profit then you should also know that a short term burst is the norm, and really shouldnt change anything you have done up until now.

Just when I thought you'd reached the height of stupidity, you find a new level.

[Nookx]

Pay off all your debt(s). Buy yourself something new. Continue betting to get rich?

[That Foreign Guy]

1) Do it every month
2) Buy an island.

[deadman]

I know how slowly and surely to earn 100 K $ in the course of about six month. But these ******* limits kill me and my strategy. God damn it! What should I do with limits? How can I decide this problem? Help me!!!

[hutennis]

Just less than 30 days ago, I made a deposit of around $800 into my sportsbook. Over that time, I've slowly (and surely) built the bankroll to just more than $23,500. I bet primarily baseball and college football, as those are my bread and butter. I have, in the past, developed a baseball model. I dry-tested it for two seasons and it came out significantly ahead betting large volume (~1500 bets/season). Last season, using a .4 Kelly bankroll plan, it produced 525% return on the original stake.

I've used a hybrid of my model and some of my other (untested) philosophies in this run. My run to $23.5k included only one "big hit" (a $2,000 parlay that brought the balance to $5k). From there, it's been steady growth at this point, with my average bet size sitting somewhere in the 2% range.

Let me get it str8.

With you avg bet size in a 2% range (starting bet size just about 16 bucks or so) where did $2000 parlay come from? If that parlay brought your balance to $5k does not that mean that you made $2000 bet with $7000 BR?

Here is what should happen in order to turn 800 into 23500 with 2% avg bet size.
I assume 50/50 bets and no juice. Just to keep it simple.

$800*2%=$16 bet. You bet and win. Now you have $816 BR.
$816*2%=$16 bet. You bet and win. Now you have $832 BR.
$832*2%=$17 bet. You bet and win. Now you have $849 BR... and again and again and again.

It would take winning 171 coin flips with no single loss in ONE MONTH to get to $23500 with prudent (2% per bet rule) risk management.
The last bet would be for $464 with $23180 staring BR.

Unless I'm missing something, it seems like changing your handle before posting this report was a great idea.

[jolmscheid]

I'm a relatively long-time member of this forum. I've made a new name to make this post because my old handle was highly recognizable to anyone who knows me.

Now, I come to this portion of the forum to help me determine the merits of my options going forward.

Just less than 30 days ago, I made a deposit of around $800 into my sportsbook. Over that time, I've slowly (and surely) built the bankroll to just more than $23,500. I bet primarily baseball and college football, as those are my bread and butter. I have, in the past, developed a baseball model. I dry-tested it for two seasons and it came out significantly ahead betting large volume (~1500 bets/season). Last season, using a .4 Kelly bankroll plan, it produced 525% return on the original stake.

I've used a hybrid of my model and some of my other (untested) philosophies in this run. My run to $23.5k included only one "big hit" (a $2,000 parlay that brought the balance to $5k). From there, it's been steady growth at this point, with my average bet size sitting somewhere in the 2% range.

Now, I'm not sure my next move. I've consistently won over the years. My problem to this point has been money management, as immaturity has caused me to chase losses and greed has caused me to overbet at times. For the first time, I'm taking money management seriously and treating this thing as an investment account.

This money is significantly life money for someone in my position. I'm in graduate school, with the real job world looming in just less than 2 years. I didn't expect to make $23k in one month, but now I don't know whether to take it out and take some pressure off of myself for a couple of years, or whether I should continue pushing forward.

The other worry, of course, is having that type of money sitting in a sportsbook where anything could happen to it.

What say ye, board?

Are you trying to start a service or get clients or something? Or why would you change your name?

[jolmscheid]

Not trying to be a dick...just wondering what changing your SBR name has to do with anything...

[Pokerjoe]

I like hutennis's reply.

OP, there is no "slowly but surely" getting from $800 to 23.5K in 30 days. What you did is pretty much the definition of not-slowly and very un-surely. Meaning, you just got lucky and should take it all out.

Or, go ahead and hit us with your tout-boy sales pitch.

[Sawyer]

Congrats on your winning but let me warn you about something..

Turning 800$ into 23,500$ may sound great at first glance but actually it's not a good thing. It's a very DANGEROUS thing.

It's like losing 10 kg in 7 days. It may sound great but it's not healthy. It's healthy to lose 1-1,5 kg / week. If you lose 9-10 kg/week, probably you will get these back since you're not burning fat.

Same goes for sports betting. Betting %2 and turning 800$ in 23,500? Come on. Probably, in a period you overbet or chased your losses.

Not trying to be a dick here, just knocking your door of realism.

[Sabermetrician]

Well obviously I'm not betting 2% of my bankroll when I first make a deposit. You take some chances early. Since I hit the $5k mark, I've slowly grown my average bet size from $100 to $150 to $200 and to $250. I bet slightly more on football games because there are fewer of them and I've got a stronger track record.

Just so we're clear, these are last week's daily figures:

Customer IDMondayTuesdayWednesdayThursdayFridaySa turdaySundayTotalCurrent Balance
-353 2,493 1,646 -1,977 1,141 6,552 404 9,906 12,540
The current balance reflects the total after my withdrawal and not including pending bets.

FWIW, I took to the idea of pulling out $10k. That's enough money to take care of me for a while and I'll keep doing what I'm doing to build it a bit more.

[deadman]

Hello Sawyer,
You are right about losing 1-1,5 kg / week. I know this because I read a lot about diets since I have extra weight ))

[ebbearsfb1]

with draw like 9k... anything less than 9k... the irs wont find out.. i think... something like that...

defintely withdraw put some away...

if thats too much with draw like 2k a month,, and if u see yourself going cold, then take more out

[hutennis]

Well obviously I'm not betting 2% of my bankroll when I first make a deposit. You take some chances early. Since I hit the $5k mark, I've slowly grown my average bet size from $100 to $150 to $200 and to $250. I bet slightly more on football games because there are fewer of them and I've got a stronger track record.

Just so we're clear, these are last week's daily figures:

Customer IDMondayTuesdayWednesdayThursdayFridaySa turdaySundayTotalCurrent Balance
-353 2,493 1,646 -1,977 1,141 6,552 404 9,906 12,540
The current balance reflects the total after my withdrawal and not including pending bets.

FWIW, I took to the idea of pulling out $10k. That's enough money to take care of me for a while and I'll keep doing what I'm doing to build it a bit more.

FWIW, first you need to make sure that links you post are working.

Second. Before you try to substantiate your story with any kind of details like bet sizes and such, please make sure they pass at least some kind of smell test.

Even if I give you whatever chances you took to basically insta make 5x your money in a beginning and then from 5k on to bet not 250 but, what the hell, 300 a game, it still takes 60 winning no vig coin flips in a row to get to 23K. Not easy. Using 2% rule from 5k on will take even longer.

I have no idea what your agenda is for coming up with stories like that, but at the very least, it's simply childish.
So you are a talented and sophisticated enough to come up with the model that basically only can be described as sports betting Holy Grail, and at the same time you are naive and ignorant enough not to know how to handle a few grand? C'mon!

And what about all these guys who are eating all this crap from you and coming up with all those "congrats...", "good jobs..." and "money management advice"?
What the hell they are smoking?
Dont they see that numbers dont add up at all?
One only has to have half brain and 3rd grade arithmetic to notice that much.

Very strange.

[Kindred]

You should have less pressure if you continue to use your entire bankroll. If you go back to $800 you will feel pressured to push and make the same profit you just made over the last 30 days. The larger bankroll should help you stay focused on smart money management. You should absolutely spread it around to multiple books and line shop which is something else you'll have an extremely hard time doing with a small bankroll, and spreading it to multiple books greatly reduces the risk to your funds being offshore. One more reason not to cash out is you'll just blow the money on shit that doesn't matter. You're in college, I'm sure $23K would buy a lot of fun but at the end of the day you'll wish you still had it. If it's in a bank account it's too easy to spend, you have to plan in advance when you want to spend any of it.

Until you get better bankroll management I'd suggest flat betting. It will give you more discipline and prevent chasing losses since you won't double down, and you'll get more comfortable with variance.

Hard to believe you have such a large edge and you have money management problems like that. But if you really do have an edge why not keep it all in play and graduate with no student loans and pay for your first house in cash

[Ethan]

push it forward, take some winnings off the book

[Masu485]

Start withdrawing NOW!

At that amount, it probably won't be a one-time withdrawal and will probably take several weeks. I was in the same situation, where I turned $200 into $19 500 in a bit over a month. Thought I had a system that would never lose, and never withdrew anything. Obviously, lost almost everything and had to start from scratch.

If you are questioning whether to withdraw, it's always best to withdraw.

[face]

withdraw the money for sure, if you want to keep gambling put it in a bunch of different books, so that all your eggs aren't in one basket. the chances of all of them refusing to pay are low, and you could repeat your bets at all the different books simultaneously.

[Streakster777]

Are you trying to start a service or get clients or something? Or why would you change your name?

Because then the locals/posters he's stiffed in the past would know he now has the money to pay them.

[Wrecktangle]

...I dunno, lines and skanks?

[FreeFall]

make some more?

[TR88]

nice hit

[Streakster777]

I Made $23,500 this month; what's my next move?

Step 1: Make ghost account
Step 2: Make thread asking whats your next move

[donkson]

Make $23,501