beating baseball, what's the secret?

[face]

- chasing steam?
- spot betting/big plays?
- betting only dogs and grinding out a small profit?
- just concerning yourself with price only?
- capping player/team/pitching/ streak stats?
- hammering "off" totals once in a while (same as spot betting/big plays i guess)?

[tomcowley]

Look at each starter's ERA and the team batting averages. If they're similar, see whose closer has more saves. Then bet the team with an edge in at least 2 categories.

[durito]

raiders suggests watching all the games

[TomG]

Look at each starter's ERA and the team batting averages. If they're similar, see whose closer has more saves. Then bet the team with an edge in at least 2 categories.

This is silly because you're not trying to predict stuff like ERA and AVG. Instead, use stats that are predictive of the betting outcome. Thus look at a pitcher's W/L record as well as a team's W/L record.

[Peregrine Stoop]

a magic 8-ball

[LT Profits]

Poor OP is going to think you guys are serious.

[blackbeSSt]

the secret? quit before you start. no money lost is a winner to me

[face]

i bet astros +150 today. of course they lost because they are terrible. but it's bad to bet the cubs today too b/c of the price. that's what i'm asking about. what kind of games to think tank guys look for?

[usernametaken]

Big bet on rockies. will explain later

[face]

forget it. will read a book. nevermind.

[RickySteve]

Read forums, read math books, learn programming, start small, beat easy stuff.

[LT Profits]

use stats that are predictive of the betting outcome. Thus look at a pitcher's W/L record as well as a team's W/L record.

______________________
Runescape Gold|WOW Gold

If this is a serious post, a pitcher's W/L record is the LEAST meaningful stat when evaluating the pitcher.

[GarbageMan]

only real way is to find the team + pitchers w/l record on the day of the week the game you are betting is, ditto for daytime or night games, and then marry them up. you get 3/3 then you got yo self a chicken dinner

[Raybolts]

Read "Betting Baseball" by Michael Murray

[LT Profits]

There have been too many sarcastic responses to keep this thread in the Think Tank IMO.

[illfuuptn]

You gots ta find witch teem is da clutchiest

[RickySteve]

There have been too many sarcastic responses to keep this thread in the Think Tank IMO.

But they're all just so witty and we're so blessed to be graced with their words.

[tomcowley]

It's the same as everything though. If you want to beat WA closers, you'd better be able to predict stuff really well. If you want to beat openers, you need to outpredict a guy who's just trying to land in the ballpark. If you don't want to predict at all, you'd better have access to dumb prices. The OP isn't 100% devoid of merit, but it's like 80% "what is a system to beat MLB", 20% "how do I get a good number", and 0% "how do I make a line myself"."

[CHUBNUT]

LT is such an elitist I'm not saying Baseball cant be beat, I'm sure some joker years ago said a man would land on the moon. All I can pass on is I'm no easy prey for the books and over the years I've put considerable time into baseball betting because its a slow time of the year. With my prowess of betting and talking to a vast number of intelligent bettors I've come to the position that its impossible for the even above average player to beat it.

The trouble is baseball betting is so enticing it looks an easy sport to beat but the randomness when combined with how the books can position themselves makes it a complete folly. As normal with sports forums there are always posters who will defy physics itself in an attempt to sound sharp. Sadly its the same stuck record response you get, "I cant divulge my formulas" dadedadadeda.

sure if your not a complete idiot and have access to all books then the damage will be marginal but its what the books love most, a slow bleed from an ever optimistic bettor.

Do yourself a favour and take up portrait painting or knitting during the kipper season, you will have more cash and feel a lot sharper.

[Dark Horse]

The key is math. Basic numbers. Sample: http://contests.covers.com/Sportscon...1738&sportid=5

I won't be posting here much anymore (with the exception of the horse forum), undoubtedly to the relief of the math sect. No hard feelings guys. I actually enjoyed most of your feedback over the years. There are parts of SBR that I still appreciate, but I can no longer shake my overall impression of a watchdog turned ambulance chaser. A condescending Dozer the other day, telling me to 'wear the uniform' or leave, was the final drop.

Good luck to you all, and see you around.

[tomcowley]

Well, for possibly the first time, I agree with you. They totally sanctioned 5d robbing a player recently (the longshot VP game guy), and the renewed focus on EZ is pretty lol. I mean I've bashed the shit out of them, and I want them to fail because they're scumbag lying thieves, but SBR's just trying to dogpile on now to try to show how important it is. It's really transparent. OTOH, they do still do some actual good work.

[evo34]

The key is math. Basic numbers. Sample: http://contests.covers.com/Sportscon...1738&sportid=5 I won't be posting here much anymore (with the exception of the horse forum), undoubtedly to the relief of the math sect. No hard feelings guys. I actually enjoyed most of your feedback over the years. There are parts of SBR that I still appreciate, but I can no longer shake my overall impression of a watchdog turned ambulance chaser. A condescending Dozer the other day, telling me to 'wear the uniform' or leave, was the final drop. Good luck to you all, and see you around.

Ha. Again, if you understand "basic numbers," you'll acknowledge that Covers does not grade against real lines, instead assuming -110 every MLB total. So some guy who wants to feel good about himself can waste his life finding the best "value" offered by imaginary lines in some contest, and then post the imaginary results on forums he is threatening to leave... You're that guy. Nicely done. Best of luck to you in your continuing NFL turnover research and all other endeavors.

[Just Enough]

If this is a serious post, a pitcher's W/L record is the LEAST meaningful stat when evaluating the pitcher.

[TigerPawsSC]

This is something I know a little bit about. Despite the real danger of turning this thread into something meaningful, I'll post some of my methods.

For me, beating baseball is a combination of things. It requires a strong theoretical base. You have to understand the big picture. By that, I mean that you have to be able to recognize the overarching trends that are just starting to brew in the game. You have to do that before everyone else. For instance - last season, I focused a lot of my efforts on betting the under, building a model around predicted defensive metrics. Last year was dubbed "the year of the pitcher" after an especially low-scoring start to the season. Why did this happen? One - PEDs are nearly washed out at the big league level. Secondly, teams have taken a greater interest in athletic players and defensive analysis in building teams. This is reflected in pitcher ERAs, but the answer is not necessarily that all of these pitchers became better at their job.

The key in betting, though, is to recognize this before it comes about. It's also important to know when the market adjusts itself to this.

Likewise, it takes a strong understanding of sabermetrics. I tend to think a lot of opportunities exist in baseball betting because the market isn't quite sure which statistics to use. Baseball is information overload, but most of it is noise. The market uses the wrong metrics in evaluating pitchers and in evaluating defense. Once you detach yourself from W-L record, ERA, and other garbage predictive stats, you'll have a better ability to handicap pitching. That's really where it starts.

Baseball is also a game of feel. There are ebbs and flows in a 162-game baseball season. Teams won't bring it every night. There are many times during a season when one team will need a game much more than another team. Likewise, there are games when managers throw a wrench into the equation by resting their bullpen or something of the like. Knowing what is going on with every team on a given day can help you avoid bad spots. This cannot be the crux of your handicapping approach, but it can be an aide if you have the other things in line.

One thing that has certainly helped me is knowing where to find and how to analyze minor league pitching scouting reports and numbers. Where many people avoid pitchers making a spot start or making their debut, you can capitalize on these opportunities by getting the information and digesting it properly. What was a guy's strikeout to walk ratio in AA? How many home runs did he give up in AAA? What was the sample size? Does he pitch in the pitcher-friendly Midwest League or in the homer-happy Pacific League? Simply having the numbers isn't enough, as you have to know what caused those numbers. If you see that a guy struck out 8 guys per 9 innings in AA, you might find a scouting report to determine whether he did it by missing bats or whether he's been somewhat lucky.

Above all, there needs to be an understanding of sample size. People go crazy trying to draw conclusions from insignificant sample sizes. Prince Fielder is 1-12 with 4ks against Johnny Left-hander. Maybe Johnny has his number. Chances are that this is just statistical noise and you're drawing a conclusion that's not actually there. An appropriate understanding of sample sizing is a good place to start.

The challenge is pulling these things all together and turning them into some coherent system that works for you. How do you take all of what I said and churn out 5 picks on a Tuesday in June? That's the real challenge, but these things are necessary components.

[Scooter]

only real way is to find the team + pitchers w/l record on the day of the week the game you are betting is, ditto for daytime or night games, and then marry them up. you get 3/3 then you got yo self a chicken dinner

Winner, winner, chicken dinner.

I don't think so.

Winner, winner, Sheeen dinner.

Winning!

[Dark Horse]

I know who you are evo. Something you said gave you away. Can't say I'm surprised.

[GarbageMan]

Winner, winner, chicken dinner.

I don't think so.

Winner, winner, Sheeen dinner.

Winning!

My mistake 4/4 =

[Joe Dogs]

Pitching,Pitching and Pitching

[evo34]

I know who you are evo. Something you said gave you away. Can't say I'm surprised.

Yep, I'm the same guy who has outed you for being a money-losing douchebag about 10 times in the past year. (Hardly an accomplishment, but somewhat necessary given your rodent-like infestation of these boards). Is that what rang some bells?

[Dark Horse]

You're an absolute nobody. A flea that must bite in order to feel fulfilled.

[sharlataans]

I think the only reasonable way to beat baseball is watch the game and bet LIVE. Of course you have to know the game and teams VERY VERY well