Can this REALLY happen?

freddues · 09-09-11, 04:37 PM

500-1?

DrStale · 09-09-11, 04:40 PM

5 to win 1965 = 5 to win 2000 = 1 to win 400 = 1 in 400.

MATH.

ehp6737 · 09-09-11, 05:40 PM

Your first play [Alabama] is a broke landers mush special. So you have no chance

freddues · 09-09-11, 09:01 PM

Yes, I get the math part--my question is what are the real odds that this will actually hit? I imagine that they are much higher than 400 to 1. Any thoughts?

5000 to 1 perhaps

wantitall4moi · 09-09-11, 09:11 PM

there must be some moneylines in there somewhere. And probably some reduced vig on the spreads.

Basically books take whatever the odds are associated with the handicap or the Ml and punch them into a formula.

so if all those games were -110 you be looking at 1679, so basically 336-1.

the 'true' math would entail figuring out the probability for each individual event and plug that into the formula. But since finding those numbers out would be nearly impossible it is hard to figure out a true pay off.

Some probability guys might give it a shot but if 5 looked at it youd get 5 different answers.