Aussies rules Finals week 1

[Bbr]

Australian Rules Football finals series starting this Friday through to Sunday. Get on it! Here are my plays for this week. Picks are up for discussion but, I have already locked in these plays. They are subject to upgrade when team sheets are released on Thursday.

Hawks +6.5 (5x) Hawks ML +130 (3x)
Geelong smashed collingwood last week in an AMAZING display- NOT really Collingwood were just lifeless, the game was pointless regardless. Many of the public will be thinking "Geelong bet Collingwood convincingly" and then they see the line set for this weeks match (Geelong -6.5) and also think its a gift from the gambling gods and pound the sh!t out of it. WRONG trap trap trap TRAP!!! Keep in mind Geelong lost 2 weeks ago (miserable loss at their home ground)- So they are not necessarily in form as many think they are . Hawks have been in hot form sine the 2nd half of the season and have not eased up! They rested 8 of their star players last week so they should be full of energy, refresehed and rejuvenated for this weeks block buster.Geelong ML moving up. Hawks ATS getting juiced at some books. Just keeping track of line movement.

Collingwood -27.5 -110 (3x)
West coast think they got what it takes to match the Collingwood midfield- I dont think so, Coll midfielders come out and send a message. Past history also favour collingwood at the MCG. Collingwood make a massive statement this week.

St. Kilda ML -235 (no play- Good in a parlay)
A lot of juice here but, I think the saints get it done here. Crushing loses in the past final series and this is pretty much their last shot at it- All out or GTFO. Saints getting into the zone with finals just around the corner, I dont see them getting far but definitely see them getting pass the surging swans. Even though the swans bet them a couple of week ago at ANZ stadium, this game will be played at Etihad stadium and that's a whole different story. Go Saints!

Essendon +17.5 (3x) -110 Essendon ML +210 (1x)
Massive underdogs! I believe the J Hird can bring this team to a win this week. They are capable of playing a very offensive and quick brand of footy. Their leg speed and quick ball movement should give carlton a lot to worry about. The last time they played these two teams drew 79-79 (who wouldve thought). This match is there for anyone to take thus, Carlton may win, but no way they cover the 17.5 pts.

BOL and GL Everyone- Games start this Friday (Check 5dimes for start times).

[binomial]

GL.

Haven't got around to looking closely yet, but as long as Fletcher is playing I like Essendon.

[Bbr]

GL.

Haven't got around to looking closely yet, but as long as Fletcher is playing I like Essendon.

Hrmmm I'm not sure there is a direct match-up for fletcher. Maybe kreuzer if he floats into FF

[ACoochy]

Agree with the essendon +17.5 but not touching...Now understand your angle on Cats game but still believe they have more than a chance to cover any # between now and close...

Bbr, lets make it interesting...Hows a 100 point bet sound to you? You at ur posted # and me at my #...

[Lookingtostart]

Good point about Fletcher. I think Essendon have been way too underrated for this match, I don't have confidence in Ratten's style of coaching at all, it's probably a case of ordinary coach coaching very talented players.

[Bbr]

Agree with the essendon +17.5 but not touching...Now understand your angle on Cats game but still believe they have more than a chance to cover any # between now and close...

Bbr, lets make it interesting...Hows a 100 point bet sound to you? You at ur posted # and me at my #...

I'm in. Loser pays in the winner's thread. BOL

[Bbr]

Good point about Fletcher. I think Essendon have been way too underrated for this match, I don't have confidence in Ratten's style of coaching at all, it's probably a case of ordinary coach coaching very talented players.

Essendon should come out strong (1H might be a gd play). Just hope they pay consistently over 4 qtrs. We all know what happened against the pies a month ago.
Likewise, I am not a fan of Ratten's coaching. Hird on the other hand has impressed me a lot this year!

[ACoochy]

I'm in. Loser pays in the winner's thread. BOL

[Ace_of_Spades]

Think Hawthorne is a really good pick. I'm not sure weather to take the points or the ML. I do think it's going to be close and right down to the last few minutes.

[benrama]

Good food for discussion. I think I'm with you on the Hawks, but think I'll probably take the 1H line with them, as I can see this game going similarly to when they played earlier in the season. I'm thinking of also taking 1H line with West Coast (17 1H's won this year) and Essendon. Just not sure I can trust the Dons or WCE in the 2H and Hawthorn could let their recent poor history get to them mentally at the end of the game against the Cats.

Sydney vs St Kilda is the one that puzzles me most. Sydney have a tendency to start poorly against good teams (particularly in kicking %) whereas St Kilda have won more 1Q's this year than anyone else (17). I really like Sydney +19.5 but they are so unpredictable - they are one of the few teams that can genuinely beat any team on their day (Saints are not), and can still lose to Port Adelaide Swans are first in tackles and contested possessions and second in clearances this season - that should in theory translate well to Etihad, but so far this season they have a 1-2 record there, losing to Essendon by 1, beating North by 1, and losing to Carlton by 34. Not shocking results, but not great ones either.

I'm a Saints fan and I hate backing my team in the finals - I have a speculative futures play on Swans so might leave it at that, and see for any live betting opportunities.

[Bbr]

Think Hawthorne is a really good pick. I'm not sure weather to take the points or the ML. I do think it's going to be close and right down to the last few minutes.

At the moment there is gd value in the ML. I would take both just as i noted in my first post =D GL

[Bbr]

Good food for discussion. I think I'm with you on the Hawks, but think I'll probably take the 1H line with them, as I can see this game going similarly to when they played earlier in the season. I'm thinking of also taking 1H line with West Coast (17 1H's won this year) and Essendon. Just not sure I can trust the Dons or WCE in the 2H and Hawthorn could let their recent poor history get to them mentally at the end of the game against the Cats.

Sydney vs St Kilda is the one that puzzles me most. Sydney have a tendency to start poorly against good teams (particularly in kicking %) whereas St Kilda have won more 1Q's this year than anyone else (17). I really like Sydney +19.5 but they are so unpredictable - they are one of the few teams that can genuinely beat any team on their day (Saints are not), and can still lose to Port Adelaide Swans are first in tackles and contested possessions and second in clearances this season - that should in theory translate well to Etihad, but so far this season they have a 1-2 record there, losing to Essendon by 1, beating North by 1, and losing to Carlton by 34. Not shocking results, but not great ones either.

I'm a Saints fan and I hate backing my team in the finals - I have a speculative futures play on Swans so might leave it at that, and see for any live betting opportunities.

I agree with you here, the saints/swans match is very difficult but, like u mentioned swans have a poor history at etihad. That may mentally effect them and act as fuel for the saints.
WCE have had cracker 1H's all season, even in melbourne (especially etihad). However, this is the finals we are talking about not to also mention they are playing collingwood, a team that implodes so much pressure around the ground; frontal pressure in particular.

Well, the hawks did play a poor 4q against the cats early in the year. I see them learning from this mistake. Clarkson will roll those tapes over and over again. The difference between the two teams here is that the Hawks have developed immensely since that game however the cats have made a very staggered approach towards september. So i now ask you...Do you think the cats have improved/developed since there last match with the Hawks?
Food for thought indeed.

[ACoochy]

Just not sure I can trust the Dons or WCE in the 2H and Hawthorn could let their recent poor history get to them mentally at the end of the game against the Cats.

Same angle as myself benny. Slight psychological advantage which has exposed itself on previous 6 occasions..
One rule of gambling i always follow: If it aint broke then dont fix it...GL...

[benrama]

I agree with you here, the saints/swans match is very difficult but, like u mentioned swans have a poor history at etihad. That may mentally effect them and act as fuel for the saints.
WCE have had cracker 1H's all season, even in melbourne (especially etihad). However, this is the finals we are talking about not to also mention they are playing collingwood, a team that implodes so much pressure around the ground; frontal pressure in particular.

Well, the hawks did play a poor 4q against the cats early in the year. I see them learning from this mistake. Clarkson will roll those tapes over and over again. The difference between the two teams here is that the Hawks have developed immensely since that game however the cats have made a very staggered approach towards september. So i now ask you...Do you think the cats have improved/developed since there last match with the Hawks?
Food for thought indeed.

The forecast is for showers on Friday night, though, not exactly sure who that favours - both teams have played well in the wet this year - but worth keeping in mind. The reason I have an asterisk on Hawthorn 1H is that I'm not sure the strategy of resting players is a good one - the bye has tended to be a disadvantage this year, for example.

Buddy and Cyril is the best one-two forward combo in the comp, no doubt about it, and to answer your question, yes I think Hawks have got better since their R5 meeting, while Geelong have got worse. The Cats/Pies game on Friday night was absolutely meaningless in gage-ing form, more telling was that Geelong lost their previous 3 games against top 8 teams.

All that said, I've been doing my research tonight ... and I think I'm on the verge of changing my lean to the Cats. Stats wise these teams are very well matched (http://www.pro-stats.com.au/psw/web/...1=108&tid2=107) - though Cats advantage in Inside 50's is significant - and although Hawks I think have the better forwards, I think the Cats have the better midfield with people like Chapman that make up for their forward line when they are on a roll.

So this is a true coin flip, and therefore things like a psychological edge do come into play. Cats clearly have this; Cats will also be hungry from last year and a lot of their veterans will know this could be one of their last great chances for a title. Cats have also kept every game this year close, even their losses so you can expect them to be there or there-abouts in the 4Q; I also think there is a chance they actually blow this game out, but don't see it the other way.

Anyway, good to have the motivation to look into this further - and nothing wrong with changing your mind

As to the other games, I think the Pies will come out firing and even though WCE were 2nd in 1H's won, the Pies were number 1. No edge to be found there. Couldn't find an edge anywhere actually, think the bookies have got this one pretty spot on. Any plays I make will be live bets.

Don't have a good enough read on Carlton or Essendon as haven't watched enough of their games. Still think the 'Dons come out firing, and keep it close in the 1H, before Carlton dominate the 2H. In their two other games this year, Essendon were ahead by 6 at half-time in Round 4, and behind by 7 in the re-match.

The game I think there is the biggest value on is Swans vs St Kilda, Swans are just so dominant in so many key categories - see http://www.pro-stats.com.au/psw/web/...113&year2=2011

Inside 50's, clearances, contested possessions, hitouts - all with big advantages to the Swans. And in the recent game at ANZ, Swans would have won by 50 had it not been for woeful kicking accuracy. Does Etihad stadium make up for all this? I don't think so, Swans +17.5 is the bet for me - just wished I'd got on it at +19.5 for even better value.

[Bbr]

The forecast is for showers on Friday night, though, not exactly sure who that favours - both teams have played well in the wet this year - but worth keeping in mind. The reason I have an asterisk on Hawthorn 1H is that I'm not sure the strategy of resting players is a good one - the bye has tended to be a disadvantage this year, for example.

Buddy and Cyril is the best one-two forward combo in the comp, no doubt about it, and to answer your question, yes I think Hawks have got better since their R5 meeting, while Geelong have got worse. The Cats/Pies game on Friday night was absolutely meaningless in gage-ing form, more telling was that Geelong lost their previous 3 games against top 8 teams.

All that said, I've been doing my research tonight ... and I think I'm on the verge of changing my lean to the Cats. Stats wise these teams are very well matched (http://www.pro-stats.com.au/psw/web/...1=108&tid2=107) - though Cats advantage in Inside 50's is significant - and although Hawks I think have the better forwards, I think the Cats have the better midfield with people like Chapman that make up for their forward line when they are on a roll.

So this is a true coin flip, and therefore things like a psychological edge do come into play. Cats clearly have this; Cats will also be hungry from last year and a lot of their veterans will know this could be one of their last great chances for a title. Cats have also kept every game this year close, even their losses so you can expect them to be there or there-abouts in the 4Q; I also think there is a chance they actually blow this game out, but don't see it the other way.

Anyway, good to have the motivation to look into this further - and nothing wrong with changing your mind

As to the other games, I think the Pies will come out firing and even though WCE were 2nd in 1H's won, the Pies were number 1. No edge to be found there. Couldn't find an edge anywhere actually, think the bookies have got this one pretty spot on. Any plays I make will be live bets.

Don't have a good enough read on Carlton or Essendon as haven't watched enough of their games. Still think the 'Dons come out firing, and keep it close in the 1H, before Carlton dominate the 2H. In their two other games this year, Essendon were ahead by 6 at half-time in Round 4, and behind by 7 in the re-match.

The game I think there is the biggest value on is Swans vs St Kilda, Swans are just so dominant in so many key categories - see http://www.pro-stats.com.au/psw/web/...113&year2=2011

Inside 50's, clearances, contested possessions, hitouts - all with big advantages to the Swans. And in the recent game at ANZ, Swans would have won by 50 had it not been for woeful kicking accuracy. Does Etihad stadium make up for all this? I don't think so, Swans +17.5 is the bet for me - just wished I'd got on it at +19.5 for even better value.

I think you have made me lean towards sydney ATS but most likely it will be a no play for me, solely because my initial lean were the saints. Will probably just enjoy the match!

The cats may be hungry from last year but so will the hawks! They've had 2 dissapointing seasons since their flag on 08 where they beat the cats of course. A team that isn't hungry does not strive for improvement and development. Weather may actually play a factor because from what I have noticed, the cats are quite inaccurate in front of goal whereas the hawks are not as much; making goals a lot more important. As for a blow out, it could actually occur both ways. If the game is done and dusted by the end of the third, expect the losing team to look ahead to next week (Gd for live bets). I agree that cats have the better midfield but the Hawks arent too far behind. The hawks midfielders are not push-overs and run all day. It is turning out to be a true coin flip isn't it. It is important to keep in mind that finals footy is a whole different ball game. A team may have more inside 50's and still manage to lose. We have seen the game develop over the past couple of years and this has influenced an alarming increase in inside 50's- but now a days it does not reflect a win. The inside 50 count may look lop-sided but teams like geelong and coll go inside 50 and just outside 50 all the time because thats where most of the footy is now played. So if we talk about modern footy being played a lot around the 50m arc when the ball goes inside 50 which team is more dangerous and effective? I believe the hawks are when up against the cats defense, keeping in mind who will go to cyril and effectively mask his influence.
BOL buddy with whoever you choose to take.

[donkson]

Cats/Hawks line is spot on. It will be a close game but Geelong are better, simple as that.

[Bbr]

Cats/Hawks line is spot on. It will be a close game but Geelong are better, simple as that.

You may think so, but the public witnessed the cats demolish the pies and won't think the line is spot on. Like I explained in previous posts, this line is a trap and all those jumping on the cats bandwagon will get buried. Simple as that

[kingsr]

You may think so, but the public witnessed the cats demolish the pies and won't think the line is spot on. Like I explained in previous posts, this line is a trap and all those jumping on the cats bandwagon will get buried. Simple as that

That's a bit cocky don't you think? You talk as if they have already won SU...wtf?

I got Gee -4.5 when the lines were first released, and Im very happy with my play. GL

[TwoWays]

Cats have been good most of the year. Every team in this league goes through slumps. Cats can win in both a low and high scoring game against the Hawks, as evident by their two wins over them this year. Cats look back in form and I'm riding them to the GF.

[Bbr]

That's a bit cocky don't you think? You talk as if they have already won SU...wtf?

I got Gee -4.5 when the lines were first released, and Im very happy with my play. GL

Cocky? There was no intention. I have not personally attacked anyone about their play. If you dont have anything constructive to say then GTFO.
Looks like plenty here are on the cats, makes me even more confident in my play.

[Bbr]

Cats have been good most of the year. Every team in this league goes through slumps. Cats can win in both a low and high scoring game against the Hawks, as evident by their two wins over them this year. Cats look back in form and I'm riding them to the GF.

This is my point exactly

[TwoWays]

Please don't needlessly attack each other. This sub-forum has always been one place where personal attacks never happen, at least not that I've seen.

[TwoWays]

It seems counter-point, but hey, everyone has their skewed view.

[Bbr]

Please don't needlessly attack each other. This sub-forum has always been one place where personal attacks never happen, at least not that I've seen.

[brettels]

Kreuzer in or out? All i been hearing is he more likely misses the match. poor carlton. they should still win comfortably.

[donkson]

Hilarious thread.

[Lookingtostart]

Has anyone been following the STkilda/Swans line movement? I only started researching about this sort of stuff at the start of this year so I'm no pro at reading lines, I feel like I could learn a bit with this one, what do you guys make of it?

I find it interesting, I can't remember what it started out as but went to 19.5, then down to 17.5, up 18.5 and now 17.5 again. Benrama mentioned that it might drop down to 15 or 16.5 in the end. Are the squares pushing the StKilda spread up and the sharps moving it back down?

[kingsr]

You may think so, but the public witnessed the cats demolish the pies and won't think the line is spot on. Like I explained in previous posts, this line is a trap and all those jumping on the cats bandwagon will get buried. Simple as that

That's where you were COCKY! Anyway I said GL to you.

[kingsr]

Has anyone been following the STkilda/Swans line movement? I only started researching about this sort of stuff at the start of this year so I'm no pro at reading lines, I feel like I could learn a bit with this one, what do you guys make of it?

I find it interesting, I can't remember what it started out as but went to 19.5, then down to 17.5, up 18.5 and now 17.5 again. Benrama mentioned that it might drop down to 15 or 16.5 in the end. Are the squares pushing the StKilda spread up and the sharps moving it back down?

It started at 15.5....I think punters are devided on this one.

[donkson]

It started at 14.5, probably can't read a whole lot into it really.

[Bbr]

It started at 15.5....I think punters are devided on this one.

I agree!
I see this game to be a low scoring affair. This line is dead on and I rekon the Saints win 1-24. Not going to be a blowout.

[Bbr]

Team sheets have been announced. Kreuzer out is huge.
Updated plays:

Friday:
Hawks +6.5 (-110) 5x
Hawks ML (+130) 3x

Saturday:
Collingwood -28.5 (-110) 3x
Collingwood 40+ (+140) 1x
St Kilda 1-24 (+225) 1x

Sunday:
Essendon Bombers +17.5 (-110) 3.5x
Essendon ML +210 1.5x
Essendon +9.5 1H (-110) 2x

BOL guys.

[ACoochy]

That's where you were COCKY! Anyway I said GL to you.

He is trying to force the play here. Let him, we all know what happens when we force plays....

[Bbr]

He is trying to force the play here. Let him, we all know what happens when we force plays....

Wow. Can you get a bit more personal? Why aggravate an issue? Move on pal and dont make yourself seem like an ass. I'm sure you're a decent bloke.

[ACoochy]

Wow. Can you get a bit more personal? Why aggravate an issue? Move on pal and dont make yourself seem like an ass. I'm sure you're a decent bloke.

Simply an observation. Couldve generalized it, i grant you. But come on, the rising tension and aggro b4 the bounce makes the contest that much more entertaining :-)