Greetings,
I have a model I've built that works pretty well for NHL, +50 to +100 units a season (never less than +52) for the last four years. I've been very careful in evaluating it, literaly processing the database, each bet, and the box scores\results day by day, so I'm confident that the results aren't reflecting any overfitting.
The only remaining "concern" I have is that the odds I used in the historical database are from Covers.com past results. A valid criticism might be that my model assumes that I can get Covers.com odds (or better) on every bet. (Popular concensus is that the odds come from Pinnacle). I don't have any way of directly answering this question. The model doesn't look that closely at odds when it bets (it looks at whether the team is a fav\dog and whether is is a strong one of those).
I reason that I may not always get the exact odds, but if its random (assuming that Pinnacle does not ALWAYS have the best odds) then I should get some better odds and some worse odds, and it will even out. Secondly, with 50-100 units I can afford to give up a few.
My question to the forum is, how much would this issue of "can I get the right odds" concern you? Assuming the model is steadily profitable taking every other concern out, am I worrying too much about this?
Thanks.
I have a model I've built that works pretty well for NHL, +50 to +100 units a season (never less than +52) for the last four years. I've been very careful in evaluating it, literaly processing the database, each bet, and the box scores\results day by day, so I'm confident that the results aren't reflecting any overfitting.
The only remaining "concern" I have is that the odds I used in the historical database are from Covers.com past results. A valid criticism might be that my model assumes that I can get Covers.com odds (or better) on every bet. (Popular concensus is that the odds come from Pinnacle). I don't have any way of directly answering this question. The model doesn't look that closely at odds when it bets (it looks at whether the team is a fav\dog and whether is is a strong one of those).
I reason that I may not always get the exact odds, but if its random (assuming that Pinnacle does not ALWAYS have the best odds) then I should get some better odds and some worse odds, and it will even out. Secondly, with 50-100 units I can afford to give up a few.
My question to the forum is, how much would this issue of "can I get the right odds" concern you? Assuming the model is steadily profitable taking every other concern out, am I worrying too much about this?
Thanks.