The Seer's 2011 NCAAF & NFL thread

[jgray]

Toledo....again....

[The Seer]

Toledo....again....

I've been on the losing end of the past 3 plus that one, unreal.

[The Seer]

I saw what I needed to see at the line of scrimmage and motivation.
adding 1 more unit:
live bet Iowa St ML -160 2 units

[The Seer]

I saw what I needed to see at the line of scrimmage and motivation.
adding 1 more unit:
live bet Iowa St ML -160 2 units

that was supposed to say adding one more bet. I think this has blow out potential written all over it. I think Iowa St up to -7 is a good bet.

[rake922]

Rutgers O-line is looking great on this drive

[samdapatriotsfan]

If Rut scores here I will put a bit on Iowa ST ML too

[The Seer]

Rutgers O-line is looking great on this drive

I know. Here we go again. I've been snake bit the last 3 days it seems.

[jihadvillager]

Missed the live- you still like it seer?

[The Seer]

Missed the live- you still like it seer?

maybe a little now but I wouldnt put much. Be glad you missed the first one.

[The Seer]

adding:
Mississippi State -6.5 1 unit
I originally had a small lean on Wake because Jim Grobe is 3-1 in bowls and I've seen Mullen make alot of dumb in game decisions this year but there is some things that can't be ignored.
Miss St's 6 losses were at Aub, LSU, at Geo, SCar, AL, & at Ark & Wake Forest's losses just don't compare. The last time WF played an SEC team was their last game vs Vandy in which they got shelled 41-7. They finished the year winning 2 of their last 7. I'm keeping the units low until I can win a game again.

[The Seer]

adding:
WF/MS St over 48.5 1 unit

[grizzy]

Good stuff Seer. Just curious what the research is behind the Iowa +14 pick? I have Oklahoma as the last leg of a parlay and need to hedge. I guess the main factor here will be motivation. If Okie comes to play they blow Iowa out of he park. But playing in a non BCS bowl, they might now even care. I'm will definitely hedge the parlay, just not sure if I should roll with a 50/50 hedge or favour it slighty in one of Okie/Iowa's favour.

[The Seer]

Good stuff Seer. Just curious what the research is behind the Iowa +14 pick? I have Oklahoma as the last leg of a parlay and need to hedge. I guess the main factor here will be motivation. If Okie comes to play they blow Iowa out of he park. But playing in a non BCS bowl, they might now even care. I'm will definitely hedge the parlay, just not sure if I should roll with a 50/50 hedge or favour it slighty in one of Okie/Iowa's favour.

We have a tale of 2 coaches. If I had to pick one coach to coach my bowl game it would be Ferentz. In bowls, he is 6-1 ATS as a dog with 5 of those winning straight up. Stoops is a terrible bowl coach especially as a fave where he is 4-8 ATS. We also have one team playing for a national title one second and then hoping for a BCS game as consolation. Now they are relegated to this bowl. They were n't even motivated to play Ok St and now they play Iowa. Landry Jones has not thrown a TD pass in 3 games. People will point to the loss of Coker for Iowa but Okl is a totally different team without Broyles and Whaley. Now Okl will also be with WR Reynolds and 2 other players.
Quotes:
Stoops-“We have a lot to get straight. We have a lot to correct. And I don’t know if just the bowl practices can get it done but we’re going to try.”
He doesn't sound real confident.
some more:
"That (attitude) was my biggest concern because we did have a lot of hopes and dreams this season," Hurst said. "At first we were thinking this (Insight) bowl was an insult, but it's not.

"We got hyped up with the No. 1 ranking and slipped a little bit here and there when not paying attention to the little things caught up with us," Stills said. "Our season was about (a lack of) discipline.

"But I'd tell our fans to have no worries. We have a lot of character on this team and a lot of heart, and we're looking to get back to having seasons with no losses and playing for national championships."

It sounds like they are worried more about next year.
Who would want to back this team here?

[No coincidences]

Who will run the ball for Iowa Seer?

I'm worried that if the Hawks can't keep Oklahoma's defense honest, Vandenberg might get decapitated. OKL has a really good DL, and they have to be ready to tee off on Iowa's suddenly one-dimensional offense.

[jgray]

Great write-up Seer. One more point here on the motivation story. Iowa's long-time defensive coordinator Norm Parker announced his retirement a couple of weeks ago. The kids love him and have consistently been saying that want him to go out a winner. There's not much debate that OU is the more talented team (although Iowa holds it's own in sending guys to the NFL), but there's also no debate that Iowa will be up tonight.

NoCon -- Regarding the RB, remember last year? Robinson was suspended for the game and it became Coker's coming out party. Iowa has always had a stable of more than serviceable backs (some pretty damn good). I fully expect one of the other kids to step up tonight.

[The Seer]

Who will run the ball for Iowa Seer? I'm worried that if the Hawks can't keep Oklahoma's defense honest, Vandenberg might get decapitated. OKL has a really good DL, and they have to be ready to tee off on Iowa's suddenly one-dimensional offense.

Coker is a good back but the Oline is the reason they can run the ball, throw in who you want. Ask yourself who is more 1 dimensional? Jones had no TD passes and five interceptions in the three games Broyles missed as Oklahoma went 1-2. Who's to say Iowa doesn't decapitate him? Vandenberg threw for 23 TDs with six interceptions and the Sooner defense allowed almost 30 points and 449 total yards a game during the 3-3 finish. I doubt Vberg is very worried. Baylor, Tex Tech, and Ok St weren't either.

[The Seer]

One more factor: Stoops and Ferentz are very close friends. I doubt Stoops would run up the score more than a couple of TDs if given the chance.

[The Seer]

Great write-up Seer. One more point here on the motivation story. Iowa's long-time defensive coordinator Norm Parker announced his retirement a couple of weeks ago. The kids love him and have consistently been saying that want him to go out a winner. There's not much debate that OU is the more talented team (although Iowa holds it's own in sending guys to the NFL), but there's also no debate that Iowa will be up tonight. NoCon -- Regarding the RB, remember last year? Robinson was suspended for the game and it became Coker's coming out party. Iowa has always had a stable of more than serviceable backs (some pretty damn good). I fully expect one of the other kids to step up tonight.

definitely, thanks for the contribution j

[jihadvillager]

All these wruteups make me want to put more on Iowa- be surprised if two dd faves cover 2nights in a row although that theory doesn't mean much

[grizzy]

Perfect - thanks for the write-ups gents. Thinking I may just hedge this Parlay right down the middle. Not worth the risk to leave it pending on Okie.

[The Seer]

All these wruteups make me want to put more on Iowa- be surprised if two dd faves cover 2nights in a row although that theory doesn't mean much

this would be a 3 or 4 unit play if I wasn't so cold right now. I'm considering adding more anyway.

[raiton]

i teased iowa +20,5 and the under, dont see a blowout game here. also put o a unit on the iowa spread.

[jihadvillager]

If that missed pat costs us the game im really at a loss for words

[Capybara]

I already loved Iowa based on the line movement, and after the solid stuff in this thread I'm pounding the shit out of em. Let's get it, Boys!!

[The Seer]

If that missed pat costs us the game im really at a loss for words

if it can go wrong it has the last few days, maybe we can weather the storm

[The Seer]

i teased iowa +20,5 and the under, dont see a blowout game here. also put o a unit on the iowa spread.

good luck

I already loved Iowa based on the line movement, and after the solid stuff in this thread I'm pounding the shit out of em. Let's get it, Boys!!

[jihadvillager]

keep us updated Seer if you add more. Riding with you!

[The Seer]

2 units on Iowa +14

adding 1 more unit on Iowa at +14 as well as 1 unit on Iowa ML +410
due to Ferentz being 6-1 ATS in bowls with 5 outright victories. We listed many reasons in the previous posts. To add, coming in to this bowl season, DD dogs were 29-20-1 the past 50. 16 of those were outright victories. Motivation is magnified in the weeks preparing for bowls and I have seen zero evidence of it out of Oklahoma. Iowa would be thrilled to knock off Oklahoma & Ferentz suspending Coker did nothing but get his team's attention. Many Oklahoma upperclassmen are more interested in draft status than Iowa's. Big 12 teams have covered 33% of their bowls in the last 5 years mainly because they suck on defense. Also, everytime this line gets to 14, it keeps getting bet back down to 13.5. The bottom line is this: Oklahoma entered the season ranked No. 1 and dreaming of playing for a national championship. No one on that team, coaches or players, dreamed they’d be playing in the Insight Bowl against a 7-5 Big Ten team. I'm going to go down swinging on this one. GL

[No coincidences]

Coker is a good back but the Oline is the reason they can run the ball, throw in who you want. Ask yourself who is more 1 dimensional? Jones had no TD passes and five interceptions in the three games Broyles missed as Oklahoma went 1-2. Who's to say Iowa doesn't decapitate him? Vandenberg threw for 23 TDs with six interceptions and the Sooner defense allowed almost 30 points and 449 total yards a game during the 3-3 finish. I doubt Vberg is very worried. Baylor, Tex Tech, and Ok St weren't either.

Their OL is pretty mediocre compared to a typical Iowa OL. You can't just throw in whoever you want and automatically be productive. Aside from Coker and McCall, they don't have anyone who has carried the ball more than a handful of times this year.

Good luck. I'd take Oklahoma personally; I think unless the Sooners sleepwalk through this one, they win by at least 17. They very well could do just that, though.

[The Seer]

I would be a great fade right now. 1-8 last 9 in these bowls and it looks to get worse.

[paco]

Keep ur head up Seer and lets hope Iowa can pull thru for us.

[gummo]

Let's get this Iowa cover seer.

[The Seer]

Their OL is pretty mediocre compared to a typical Iowa OL. You can't just throw in whoever you want and automatically be productive. Aside from Coker and McCall, they don't have anyone who has carried the ball more than a handful of times this year. Good luck. I'd take Oklahoma personally; I think unless the Sooners sleepwalk through this one, they win by at least 17. They very well could do just that, though.

It's 7-0 because of the intereception and personal foul, but here is some interesting stats.
1st qrt
total yds Iowa 96 - Okl 6
rushing yds Iowa 49- Okl 4
Iowa RB Canzeri had 40 rushing yds in the first quarter.

[Capybara]

So what do we do with this shit 2H? Very annoyed with that half. Switch over now?

[The Seer]

Let me make sure I am seeing this right.
1st half stats:
1st downs- Iowa 11, Okl 5
total yards- Iowa 135, Okl 88
passing yds- Iowa 89, Okl 69
rushing yds- Iowa 46, okl 19
score- iowa 0, okl 14

I swear you can't make this shit up. I love Iowa +7 2nd half but I cant keep chasing.