The Seer's 2011 NCAAF & NFL thread

[jihadvillager]

Also, what lines do you like for half if i had no AZ live/Browns live- what spreads would you take it up to?

[jihadvillager]

tough couple of days. hopefully we get over the hump soon. anything tonight?

[The Seer]

Sorry, took a break for a few hours.
Lean Dal but think I will just watch it. Might hit a live bet later.

[jihadvillager]

Sorry, took a break for a few hours.
Lean Dal but think I will just watch it. Might hit a live bet later.

Thanks Seer- will wait around and see. Thank you

[The Seer]

Thanks Seer- will wait around and see. Thank you

Dal getting over 3 is too good to pass up
Dallas +3.5 -115 1 unit

[jihadvillager]

Dal getting over 3 is too good to pass up
Dallas +3.5 -115 1 unit

jumped on it, thanks Seer

[The Seer]

jumped on it, thanks Seer

I wanted to see Romo's health first,might have to try to get off of it

[jihadvillager]

They are favoring the run it seems to not be 100%- in hindsight under would have been nice- or dal under traser

[The Seer]

They are favoring the run it seems to not be 100%- in hindsight under would have been nice- or dal under traser

I considered it live at 45.5 but decided not to, gonna wait longer and see what happens

[The Seer]

live under 49.5 -115 1 unit
Dal may never score

[The Seer]

over 44.5 -115 live bet, trying to middle the total

[SCRAGGS]

over 44.5 -115 live bet, trying to middle the total

The seer is always grinding

[The Seer]

The seer is always grinding

Scraggs, I found something worthy of note and to share. In the Bowl games, teams that covered the first half went 4-14 ATS the second half.

[jgray]

live under 49.5 -115 1 unit Dal may never score

over 44.5 -115 live bet, trying to middle the total

Finally, huh?

[The Seer]

live under 49.5 -115

over 44.5 -115 live bet, trying to middle the total

it worked

[Coolcanuck79]

Great call Seer ... I had almost the same ... un 50.5 live and over 44.5 live! Gotta love the G-men!

[jgray]

Alright, now that you've gotten the proverbial monkey off your back, let's talk about tomorrow.

I like half of the Big 10. OSU (their last bowl game for a year so I expect the kids to be up) vs. Florida (last I checked, the Gator bowl is not the National Championship game) and MSU. I assume you've looked at the card. Hell, SBR John thought these games were today.

Let's make some money tomorrow.

[jihadvillager]

Looking fwd to a good day tomorrow!

[NYSportsGuy210]

Any thoughts on Penn State vs. Houston? Does Penn State cover?

[The Seer]

Alright, now that you've gotten the proverbial monkey off your back, let's talk about tomorrow. I like half of the Big 10. OSU (their last bowl game for a year so I expect the kids to be up) vs. Florida (last I checked, the Gator bowl is not the National Championship game) and MSU. I assume you've looked at the card. Hell, SBR John thought these games were today. Let's make some money tomorrow.

I think Fl might come to play because of the pissed off about Urban Meyer angle and home state team. I'm thinking MSU/Geo under. I'm going to be up a while on these before I make any decisions though.

Any thoughts on Penn State vs. Houston? Does Penn State cover?

I think they do

[The Seer]

Great call Seer ... I had almost the same ... un 50.5 live and over 44.5 live! Gotta love the G-men!

Looking fwd to a good day tomorrow!

i have hope

[The Seer]

Jan 2 Bowls- firing away
12 Eastern game
Penn St +7.5 2 units
Houston blew their conference title and a BCS game in their last game. They also are upset at how Sumlin left. Penn St players have shown alot of maturity in the way they handled the Joe Pa mess. They will be playing for Tom Bradley. The 70th ranked Southern Miss pass defense showed that you can slow down the Houston offense and Penn State has the players to do it. Penn State had the best scoring defense in the Big 10 at just over 15 pts per game and have the 5th ranked passing efficiency defense. Excluding the garbage time TD that Hou got with 10 seconds left, SM held them to 21. In 3 bowl games, Keenum has 3 td passes and 7 picks. Keenum's last bowl game started was a 47-20 beat down by Air force. Houston is 78th in rush defense. The 3 teams with the best defenses that Hou faced were UCLA where they won by 4, La Tech where they won by 1, and S.Miss. Penn St will play smash mouth with Hou and keep that offense off the field. Penn St hasn't lost back to back bowls since the mid 1970s and Joe Pa hasn't been doing too much coaching in several years anyway. Penn State's 3 losses were to Bama, Nebraska, and Wisconsin. I'll take the points with the team from the power conference and the dog with the much better defense.

1pm eastern games
All 3 are Big 10-SEC matchups
Interesting fact: Since 1990, out of 53 matchups between these conferences, the team that won also covered 49 out of 53 times.
In recent history, the SEC has easily had the upper hand. Last yr the SEC went 3-1: Fl beat Penn St by 2 TDs, Bama smashed MichSt 49-7, and Ms St crushed Mich 52-14. the lone Big 10 win was Oh St by 5 over Ark. The Ark defense was easily the lesser SEC defense out of the bunch.
Mich St/ Georgia under 50 1 unit
With Mich St and Georgia, both of these teams are in the top 17 in the country in the 3rd down conversion defense but Geo is 3rd. Both are in the top 10 in first down defense but Geo is 2nd. Both are in the top 9 in passing efficiency defense but Geo is better at 4th. Mich St does have a better redzone defense. Their rushing defenses are 11th and 12th. Michigan St is the only big 10 defense in my opinion with a front 7 of near caliber. I would go more units here but I hate taking unders in bowls. Georgia has slight edges here and both teams lost their title games but I think Mich St has superior motivation to Georgia in this game due to last yr's embarrassment so I may make a later play on the side.

South Carolina -2.5 2 units
South Carolina has a much better all around defense and Nebraska being a primary run team will play right into their hands as SC can stack the box since they have the second ranked passing defense. Also, Mobile QBs have given Nebraska fits. Wisconsin, NWestern, and Mich beat them outright and Ohio St built a 27-6 lead before Braxton Miller got hurt and had to leave the game. Their defense uses alot of man to man and when those DBs and Lbers turn their backs, the running QBs take off. Conner Shaw will run all over them and pick up key 3rd downs.

Florida -2 2 units
Ohio is very one deminsional on offense with 2/3 of their offense being runs. Florida is #13 in opponents yds per rushing attempt and #10 in passing D. Florida want's to pound Urban Meyer's new team as their is a big feeling of betrayal from those players. Florida's offense will also finally be healthy and they are more balanced. Their loses were to much better teams than OSU's. The Gators will have what is basically home field advantage as well. The under is definitely worth a look at too even though it is low.

lol, the write ups got smaller going down but it's real late. I'll have a play on the Rose and Fiesta Bowls that I will post when I get home tomorrow. I might add in a play during the day before the Big 10/SEC games kick off but doubtful. GL with your plays.

[Holtgetsback]

Loving Penn St/Houston Under. Any early thoughts on that one??

You hammered a few of my leans, particularly Florida and South Carolina.

I suspect you will also be on Georgia around kickoff time?????

[The Seer]

Loving Penn St/Houston Under. Any early thoughts on that one?? You hammered a few of my leans, particularly Florida and South Carolina. I suspect you will also be on Georgia around kickoff time?????

If I had to play the total in Hou game it would be under. I almost put some on it but held off. It's still hard to back Georgia. I think Mich St has a motivational edge. I've got to get some sleep, GL.

[SimonSayz]

Good luck Seer....it's time to kill it today. I like the SCarolina play....have you looked at the FLA/OSU Total??

[The Seer]

Good luck Seer....it's time to kill it today. I like the SCarolina play....have you looked at the FLA/OSU Total??

I mentioned it in the write up. I like the under but I hate college totals in the 40s.

[jihadvillager]

Jan 2 Bowls- firing away
12 Eastern game
Penn St +7.5 2 units
Houston blew their conference title and a BCS game in their last game. They also are upset at how Sumlin left. Penn St players have shown alot of maturity in the way they handled the Joe Pa mess. They will be playing for Tom Bradley. The 70th ranked Southern Miss pass defense showed that you can slow down the Houston offense and Penn State has the players to do it. Penn State had the best scoring defense in the Big 10 at just over 15 pts per game and have the 5th ranked passing efficiency defense. Excluding the garbage time TD that Hou got with 10 seconds left, SM held them to 21. In 3 bowl games, Keenum has 3 td passes and 7 picks. Keenum's last bowl game started was a 47-20 beat down by Air force. Houston is 78th in rush defense. The 3 teams with the best defenses that Hou faced were UCLA where they won by 4, La Tech where they won by 1, and S.Miss. Penn St will play smash mouth with Hou and keep that offense off the field. Penn St hasn't lost back to back bowls since the mid 1970s and Joe Pa hasn't been doing too much coaching in several years anyway. Penn State's 3 losses were to Bama, Nebraska, and Wisconsin. I'll take the points with the team from the power conference and the dog with the much better defense.

1pm eastern games
All 3 are Big 10-SEC matchups
Interesting fact: Since 1990, out of 53 matchups between these conferences, the team that won also covered 49 out of 53 times.
In recent history, the SEC has easily had the upper hand. Last yr the SEC went 3-1: Fl beat Penn St by 2 TDs, Bama smashed MichSt 49-7, and Ms St crushed Mich 52-14. the lone Big 10 win was Oh St by 5 over Ark. The Ark defense was easily the lesser SEC defense out of the bunch.
Mich St/ Georgia under 50 1 unit
With Mich St and Georgia, both of these teams are in the top 17 in the country in the 3rd down conversion defense but Geo is 3rd. Both are in the top 10 in first down defense but Geo is 2nd. Both are in the top 9 in passing efficiency defense but Geo is better at 4th. Mich St does have a better redzone defense. Their rushing defenses are 11th and 12th. Michigan St is the only big 10 defense in my opinion with a front 7 of near caliber. I would go more units here but I hate taking unders in bowls. Georgia has slight edges here and both teams lost their title games but I think Mich St has superior motivation to Georgia in this game due to last yr's embarrassment so I may make a later play on the side.

South Carolina -2.5 2 units
South Carolina has a much better all around defense and Nebraska being a primary run team will play right into their hands as SC can stack the box since they have the second ranked passing defense. Also, Mobile QBs have given Nebraska fits. Wisconsin, NWestern, and Mich beat them outright and Ohio St built a 27-6 lead before Braxton Miller got hurt and had to leave the game. Their defense uses alot of man to man and when those DBs and Lbers turn their backs, the running QBs take off. Conner Shaw will run all over them and pick up key 3rd downs.

Florida -2 2 units
Ohio is very one deminsional on offense with 2/3 of their offense being runs. Florida is #13 in opponents yds per rushing attempt and #10 in passing D. Florida want's to pound Urban Meyer's new team as their is a big feeling of betrayal from those players. Florida's offense will also finally be healthy and they are more balanced. Their loses were to much better teams than OSU's. The Gators will have what is basically home field advantage as well. The under is definitely worth a look at too even though it is low.

lol, the write ups got smaller going down but it's real late. I'll have a play on the Rose and Fiesta Bowls that I will post when I get home tomorrow. I might add in a play during the day before the Big 10/SEC games kick off but doubtful. GL with your plays.

Thank you for the card Seer !

[The Seer]

Thank you for the card Seer !

I think these are solid. If more crazy shit happens, I give up.

[Youkeepthislove]

You have Mich St/Georgia at under 50.. My local has it at 44.? Your thoughts on o/u 44?

[azn624]

You have Mich St/Georgia at under 50.. My local has it at 44.? Your thoughts on o/u 44?

You sure that's not the O/U line for Florida ohio st game?

[Youkeepthislove]

You sure that's not the O/U line for Florida ohio st game?

Ya I'm positive.. I double checked because I thought it was a mistake too

[Kivo35]

Seer,
Penn State looks really bad. What do you think? Should we chase live on play Penn State +24½?

[The Seer]

Seer,
Penn State looks really bad. What do you think? Should we chase live on play Penn State +24½?

I'd stay away and maybe see what is there at the half.

[The Seer]

You have Mich St/Georgia at under 50.. My local has it at 44.? Your thoughts on o/u 44?

Your local is definitely taking a stance on the under. Locals can adjust them however they want though. I'd pass on that one. There's no value in it.

[jihadvillager]

Thought our under was good - smart move at least only 1u- thought psu would have covered too as the late money pushed the number down to 7 but at least we start the day with a profit!