The Seer's 2011 NCAAF & NFL thread

The Seer · 10-24-11, 06:47 PM

Monday night:
Both teams are toward the bottom of the league in offensive redzone %. Balt is actually 4th worst at scoring TDs at 36%. Jax is slightly better at 42%. Both defenses are around 50% in the red zone. Books are getting one sided with Balt and over bets on straights and exotics (teasers, parlays). Flacco is no Brees & has less weapons .Plus, there is no way I will bet a double digit road favorite with this small of an edge. I expect a conservative game by both teams and plenty of fgs. I'm getting on the side of the books. I don't usually recommend teasing totals but I'm taking this one. Bodog has the best numbers if you like the dog and under. GL either way.

Jax +11 1 unit
under 39 -115 1 unit
teaser Jax +17 & un 45 2 units
Flacco under 245.5 yards passing -105 1 unit
over 5 sacks 1 unit

The Seer · 10-24-11, 06:57 PM

in addition FYI:
both teams are in the top 4 defensively in least 1st downs allowed.
both offenses are in the lower half of the league in 3rd down% at 35.7% and 32.2%

Joe Sharp · 10-24-11, 07:00 PM

Over 3.5 FGs +140

The Seer · 10-24-11, 07:03 PM

Originally posted by Joe Sharp

Over 3.5 FGs +140

lol just added that too
over 3.5 fgs +140 1 unit

shocktopme · 10-24-11, 07:22 PM

.

Seer my friend..............FIU/Troy tomorrow.................what ya got big dog?

The Seer · 10-24-11, 11:02 PM

Originally posted by The Seer

Monday night:
Both teams are toward the bottom of the league in offensive redzone %. Balt is actually 4th worst at scoring TDs at 36%. Jax is slightly better at 42%. Both defenses are around 50% in the red zone. Books are getting one sided with Balt and over bets on straights and exotics (teasers, parlays). Flacco is no Brees & has less weapons .Plus, there is no way I will bet a double digit road favorite with this small of an edge. I expect a conservative game by both teams and plenty of fgs. I'm getting on the side of the books. I don't usually recommend teasing totals but I'm taking this one. Bodog has the best numbers if you like the dog and under. GL either way.

Jax +11 1 unit
under 39 -115 1 unit
teaser Jax +17 & un 45 2 units
Flacco under 245.5 yards passing -105 1 unit
over 5 sacks 1 unit

Originally posted by The Seer

lol just added that too
over 3.5 fgs +140 1 unit

went 6 - 0 on this game for an additional +7.40 units, the two biggest games I bet this year were easy winners this weekend
NFL is now 62-46 +13.80 units

Creative303 · 10-24-11, 11:30 PM

What's your pick tomorrow for Troy vs Florida Intl.?

Your on fire bro.

Metatron · 10-24-11, 11:34 PM

GJ, Jax buried most, was a cash cow over here

jjgold · 10-25-11, 05:26 AM

Seer nailed it

He is back in top form

TobiasFunke · 10-25-11, 07:50 AM

What a beast

YouHave2outs · 10-25-11, 03:50 PM

wtg last night seer. get it done

sweethook · 10-25-11, 05:40 PM

good job man

gummo · 10-25-11, 06:36 PM

Seer must have an opinion on this Sun Belt game tonight. I think FIU is the play.

The Seer · 10-25-11, 07:00 PM

Hey guys, just got home. I actually think Troy can win outright. worth a unit i think.

Troy +7

shocktopme · 10-25-11, 07:40 PM

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Thats what I took!!!!....Had a feeling the Seer would go doggy and points!!!Looking good too!!!!

The Seer · 10-25-11, 07:48 PM

Originally posted by shocktopme

Thats what I took!!!!....Had a feeling the Seer would go doggy and points!!!Looking good too!!!!

in most cases, yes, I felt Troy has been underachieving all year and this national spot light would bring them out of it.

pokernut9999 · 10-25-11, 08:11 PM

Seer buys his picks from me

The Seer · 10-26-11, 06:39 PM

after the Troy winner NCAAF is now 63-59 for +4.10 units, NFL 62-46 +13.80 units for a total 125-105-2 for +17.90 units

Wed night:
Three key injuries will have an effect on Pitt's lineup Wednesday when the Panthers (3-4, 1-1 Big East) play host to Connecticut (3-4, 1-1). Starting safety Jason Hendricks is out for the rest of the season with a shoulder injury and offensive lineman Lucas Nix (knee) has been downgraded to a game-time decision, but starting spur linebacker Todd Thomas will return to the lineup after missing two games. I checked and their back ups are experienced so I don't think that will have that much effect on Pitt.
UCONN ranks seventh (out of eight teams) in the conference in scoring offense (22.3 ppg) and last in total offense (320.3 ypg). In their last win, South FL had 4 turnovers and UCONN generated their points on three field goals and a fumble return for a touchdown by the defense. UConn's defense has made turnovers, fumble recoveries for touchdowns, interceptions and has made similar plays that have been very opportunistic for them as a team.
I don't feel they will get them tonight and I don't think the linesmakers do either by setting the number at 10. As a matter of fact I think Pitt's offense will find success more often than not. Even with the same records, Pitt has had by far the tougher schedule.

Pitt -10 2 units
teaser Pitt -4 over 36 1 unit

freeVICK · 10-26-11, 08:20 PM

on pitt as well. any plans to buy out at half? of course waiting to see what happens here with 4 mins left

The Seer · 10-26-11, 08:29 PM

Originally posted by freeVICK

on pitt as well. any plans to buy out at half? of course waiting to see what happens here with 4 mins left

No, HT bet for me. I like my position. UConn will have to throw 2nd half to catch up and it's gonna get even uglier.

jjgold · 10-26-11, 10:48 PM

Originally posted by The Seer

after the Troy winner NCAAF is now 63-59 for +4.10 units, NFL 62-46 +13.80 units for a total 125-105-2 for +17.90 units

Wed night:
Three key injuries will have an effect on Pitt's lineup Wednesday when the Panthers (3-4, 1-1 Big East) play host to Connecticut (3-4, 1-1). Starting safety Jason Hendricks is out for the rest of the season with a shoulder injury and offensive lineman Lucas Nix (knee) has been downgraded to a game-time decision, but starting spur linebacker Todd Thomas will return to the lineup after missing two games. I checked and their back ups are experienced so I don't think that will have that much effect on Pitt.
UCONN ranks seventh (out of eight teams) in the conference in scoring offense (22.3 ppg) and last in total offense (320.3 ypg). In their last win, South FL had 4 turnovers and UCONN generated their points on three field goals and a fumble return for a touchdown by the defense. UConn's defense has made turnovers, fumble recoveries for touchdowns, interceptions and has made similar plays that have been very opportunistic for them as a team.
I don't feel they will get them tonight and I don't think the linesmakers do either by setting the number at 10. As a matter of fact I think Pitt's offense will find success more often than not. Even with the same records, Pitt has had by far the tougher schedule.

Pitt -10 2 units
teaser Pitt -4 over 36 1 unit

kid is red hot

The Seer · 10-26-11, 11:18 PM

after the 2 Pitt winners NCAAF is now 65-59 for +7.10 units, NFL 62-46 +13.80 units for a
total 127-105-2 for +20.90 units

Originally posted by The Seer

Pitt -10 2 units W
teaser Pitt -4 over 36 1 unit W

Thursday:
Virginia +14 1 unit

I went ahead and bet these for Saturday as well:

Nebraska -4 -105 2 units Michigan st. coming off 2 emotional home wins especially the last one where they beat Wisconsin on the last play. A natural let down spot while going on the road to play a Nebraska team that I believe is beginning to round into form spells disaster for MSt. This should be at least a 10 pt win for the Huskers with blowout potential.
1 unit plays
Maryland -7 -115 Tough 3 game stretch for MD but they will regroup getting BC at home.
Baylor +14.5 Baylor will match scores with what looks to be a fun game to watch if you like offense.
USC +8 Kiffin has shown the ability to get his team up for big games. Stanford will be in for their
toughest test this year. The USC offense has been playing well. I can see upset happening.
more to come

paco · 10-26-11, 11:23 PM

Nice work Seer.

YouHave2outs · 10-27-11, 11:09 AM

good stuff last night seer. bol today

NYSportsGuy210 · 10-27-11, 11:13 AM

Way to go nice job man.

Louisvillekid1 · 10-27-11, 11:18 AM

good job seer, what's your opinion on Clemson/G tech?

towncar02 · 10-27-11, 02:06 PM

TONIGHT - Miami -13.5 and Under Parlay

thoughts??????????????

NYSportsGuy210 · 10-27-11, 02:43 PM

Clemson/Georgia Tech over looking good?

iceminers26 · 10-27-11, 03:33 PM

Originally posted by towncar02

TONIGHT - Miami -13.5 and Under Parlay thoughts??????????????

Well if his play, as stated in post #442, is Virginia 14, you figure out his thoughts on your parlay.

towncar02 · 10-27-11, 04:00 PM

And yours?

iceminers26 · 10-27-11, 04:10 PM

Originally posted by towncar02

And yours?

I just read my post and I kind of came off as a dick, was salty because Vera just collapsed in 3rd set so my appologies to you. I should have just stated he had UV as his play tonight. As for me, I don't have any play in this one at the current time. Good luck.

towncar02 · 10-27-11, 04:13 PM

no prob, just looking to capitalize as much as i can, already put $500 on UV points

towncar02 · 10-27-11, 04:14 PM

i'm thinking Miami under, Miami -14, and then parlay both

Joe Sharp · 10-27-11, 05:38 PM

WTF? That's just dumb. Keep betting both sides. You'll definitely come out ahead. Come on MAN

shocktopme · 10-27-11, 06:38 PM

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Seer my friend!!!!You are rockin the house!!!!Nice bud.....Virginia +14 it is!!!!!!