The Seer's 2011 NCAAF & NFL thread

[Joe Sharp]

Wow. IU is fukkin BAAAD.

[shocktopme]

.

thanx bud.....Im having a hard time pulling the trigger on Boise -28 and Stanford -19.5.......Anything boss?

[Joe Sharp]

Getting my ass handed to me. Squares are cleaning up. Fukk me.

[The Seer]

Auburn +23 snagging this before it gets taken off the boards with LSU suspensions. Too many points vs a quality team. Even with the bye week ahead, Lsu has got to be looking a little ahead to Bama. On top of that, add in suspensions for LSU.

2:30 games:
already have Auburn +23 for 2 units. Those suspensions are huge. Honey Badger is arguably LSU's best player scoring defensive TDs and making key plays. Their nickel package is screwed as his back up is suspended leaving them 2 players short. Ware, their pounder on offense is gone as well. The major factor though is the timing. This team has Bama coming up and gets hit with another distraction right in the middle of game prep for Auburn, not good. One more factor is Malzahn's spread is a run oriented one. It takes away some of the speed of the LSU defense because the backfield misdirection will force them to stay home and not flow.

other games but no time for write ups
all 2 units
Florida State -19 blow out
NC State +4.5
Colorado +32
Air Force +30 not enough time to prepare for this kind of option attack, have never seen it

2 huge night games later

[freeVICK]

All these public teams covering is getting sickening. My friend is a new better, total square but he keeps winning. This week he has Oklahoma St, Clemson, lsu, Boise, and wiscy... All huge favs. On top of that he told me I should just stop makin my own plays and follow him all year...

[shocktopme]

.

Stanford line dropped to 18.5.....hmmm........tough one here!!!

[The Seer]

Stanford line dropped to 18.5.....hmmm........tough one here!!!

I'm on wash, i thought it would move the other way

[shocktopme]

I'm on wash st, i thought it would move the other way

Its the Huskies not Cougs bud....

[The Seer]

Its the Huskies not Cougs bud....

that's what i meant, edited it

[ZBOIZ]

All these public teams covering is getting sickening. My friend is a new better, total square but he keeps winning. This week he has Oklahoma St, Clemson, lsu, Boise, and wiscy... All huge favs. On top of that he told me I should just stop makin my own plays and follow him all year...

[ZBOIZ]

As a LSU fan Seer you are way off base with the LSU talk. What I mean by that is, you were saying the speed factor. LSU is defensive back U! They have them for days!

But I do respect your opinions! I would love to see your opinion on the night cap games.

[pokernut9999]

As a LSU fan Seer you are way off base with the LSU talk. What I mean by that is, you were saying the speed factor. LSU is defensive back U! They have them for days!

But I do respect your opinions! I would love to see your opinion on the night cap games.

They are too deep , glad to see the line drop

[The Seer]

As a LSU fan Seer you are way off base with the LSU talk. What I mean by that is, you were saying the speed factor. LSU is defensive back U! They have them for days! But I do respect your opinions! I would love to see your opinion on the night cap games.

Zbois, LSU is playing much better than I thought. If they can still play that well after all of that, then I don't see how Alabam can beat them. They are more complete team anyway. Congrats for you and poker.

[The Seer]

I'm .500 this year in college so take it for what it's worth but to me this is a gem.
my biggest bet so far, 3 units.

1st half Tennessee +17 -105 3 unit play
1st half under 24.5 2 units
going back the last 20 yrs (I finally quit looking), Tn has never trailed Alabama by more than 10 at the half. Even last years 41-10 win, they trailed by 3 at the half, 13-10. The year before vs Bama's National CH. team in which Bama needed 2 blocked field goals to win it was 9-3 at the half; 08 was 13-3 half, 07 was 24-17 half; UT won in 06, 16-13 ; 05 final was 3-6;04 was 17-13 UT. You have to go back to the 8 game run UT had before that before there was a big lead at the half. On top of that, the last 2 years under Dooley there has only been 1 game in which they trailed by a margin that size and that was to Georgia last year 27-7 where they came off that heart breaker at LSU losing on the controversial final play. That was predictable and I posted Georgia as a play on the forum. Big games under Dooley include Oregon 13-13 at half, Florida 7-3 & 16-7, Lsu 7-7 & 17-7, SC 10-10, NC 17-14. The majority of these had Simms at QB. This team only has 3 senior starters and 75% fresh or soph starters. They are talented & can play just not physically mature enough to hold up for 4 qrts. Additionally, Saban will play this game not to lose as he knows how this rivalry is. He knows his team is bigger and stronger so there is no need to take alot of chances. I expect Saban to just grind it out because he knows he can wear them down in the second half. TN made some changes on defense. After the dismissal of Janzen Jackson, UT's best defensive player. They put their best cover guy, Prentiss Wagner at safety in his place. Wagner being their best cover corner is going back to there to help prevent the big play as the previous corner Teague gave up the killer 80 yd pass to Georgia and multiple plays to LSU. Adding size at safety, UT will start freshman Brian Randolph. He's played in all six games though and is ready to start. This will help against the big play at corner and strengthen the run defense. I don't expect UT to hang the whole game but they will keep it close for a half.

Everything points to this being close for a half, but as with gambling anything can happen.
It should go under early and Bama would be a better play for the 2nd half.
GL fellas with whatever you do. Hopefully this info can help you one way or another.

[Louisvillekid1]

I'm .500 this year in college so take it for what it's worth but to me this is a gem.
my biggest bet so far, 3 units.

1st half Tennessee +17 -105 3 unit play
1st half under 24.5 2 units
going back the last 20 yrs (I finally quit looking), Tn has never trailed Alabama by more than 10 at the half. Even last years 41-10 win, they trailed by 3 at the half, 13-10. The year before vs Bama's National CH. team in which Bama needed 2 blocked field goals to win it was 9-3 at the half; 08 was 13-3 half, 07 was 24-17 half; UT won in 06, 16-13 ; 05 final was 3-6;04 was 17-13 UT. You have to go back to the 8 game run UT had before that before there was a big lead at the half. On top of that, the last 2 years under Dooley there has only been 1 game in which they trailed by a margin that size and that was to Georgia last year 27-7 where they came off that heart breaker at LSU losing on the controversial final play. That was predictable and I posted Georgia as a play on the forum. Big games under Dooley include Oregon 13-13 at half, Florida 7-3 & 16-7, Lsu 7-7 & 17-7, SC 10-10, NC 17-14. The majority of these had Simms at QB. This team only has 3 senior starters and 75% fresh or soph starters. They are talented & can play just not physically mature enough to hold up for 4 qrts. Additionally, Saban will play this game not to lose as he knows how this rivalry is. He knows his team is bigger and stronger so there is no need to take alot of chances. I expect Saban to just grind it out because he knows he can wear them down in the second half. TN made some changes on defense. After the dismissal of Janzen Jackson, UT's best defensive player. They put their best cover guy, Prentiss Wagner at safety in his place. Wagner being their best cover corner is going back to there to help prevent the big play as the previous corner Teague gave up the killer 80 yd pass to Georgia and multiple plays to LSU. Adding size at safety, UT will start freshman Brian Randolph. He's played in all six games though and is ready to start. This will help against the big play at corner and strengthen the run defense. I don't expect UT to hang the whole game but they will keep it close for a half.

Everything points to this being close for a half, but as with gambling anything can happen.
It should go under early and Bama would be a better play for the 2nd half.
GL fellas with whatever you do. Hopefully this info can help you one way or another.

Ill roll w/ you here...

tonight im on all dogs,

3 units NW +4
1 unit NW +165
1 unit Wash +18.5
1 unit Mich St +7.5
ND -2.5 (4 unit tease)

Added: 2 units tenn +17, 1 unit u 24.5

Lets cash this...

[YouHave2outs]

^^^


good look. great post. gonna tail that +17 1st half

[itchypickle]

Look for Bama to go more vertical early in the game tonight....might get more production 1st Half than the last couple of weeks.

GL to your cover but as always ROLL TIDE! for the win

[ZBOIZ]

Seer I love your Tenny 1st half play!! I will have to play that!

Thanks for that play!

[gummo]

Seer what are your thoughts on ND/USC

[The Seer]

GL on your games guys.

Seer what are your thoughts on ND/USC

I can't get a handle at all on that game. I like ND at home but USC has the ability to score so that's alot of points. Pass for me and wait on 2nd half maybe. GL man.

[pokernut9999]

Good luck on the Tenn play , I passed on this game.

Too many points to lay and not enough to take

[The Seer]

adding 1 unit each:
Washington +18.5
Michigan St +8

[notsosharp]

tennessee looks sharp early
controlling clock

[YouHave2outs]

adding 1 unit each:
Washington +18.5
Michigan St +8

had these locked in already. and loving how tenn is looking early as well. i look forward to following this thread. bol seer!

[The Seer]

had these locked in already. and loving how tenn is looking early as well. i look forward to following this thread. bol seer!

Cool, im a fan of Patrick Willis too, hometown is about 30 minutes from mine.

[itchypickle]

great play Seer...congrats on the big unit play...didn't think we'd be this flat

[gummo]

Seer is the SEC guru for sure.

[blackbeSSt]

1st half Tennessee +17 -105 3 unit play 1st half under 24.5 2 units

perfect picks

[The Seer]

great play Seer...congrats on the big unit play...didn't think we'd be this flat

Alabama is predictably playing not to lose. You should be able to over power the Vols in the 2nd half but it hurt not getting some kind of lead because now those young kids for the Vols think they have a shot at this thing.GL.

Seer is the SEC guru for sure.

i don't know about that but I can come up with a good one here and there. Thanks.

[The Seer]

perfect picks

feels good knowing I will be up units no matter what else happens

[YouHave2outs]

good look seer

[ZBOIZ]

Alabama and Tenny Over 21 2nd half is great value I believe .. But ill stay away

[Louisvillekid1]

thanks seer

[The Seer]

thanks seer

apparently they put Teague back at corner and in return he gave up that huge pass but they still held and we got paid

[YouHave2outs]

filthy all around call on how alabama game would play out seer