The Seer's 2011 NCAAF & NFL thread

[The Seer]

I already have Dallas at +7
other late games, I absolutely love these:

TB +7 After TB got blown out, people are hammering New Orleans. A closer look shows the Saints have the 4th worst redzone scoring D at 64.29%. TB has 7th best at 42%. Offensively, N.O. is 22nd and TB 33%. Perception has made this line too high. I'm taking the home dog in what should be a tight division game.

Cleveland +7
under 45
Cleveland's defense makes this a close game with Oakland having a letdown after playing with so much emotion last week. Too many points are being given.

Houston +7
under 44
Another case of too many points in what should be a tight defensive game.

[The Seer]

4-1 with a push on the afternoon games

late game:
Minny +3 -120
over 41

[Lazyboy311]

What'd the record end up yesterday? Took several of your plays but couldn't keep up w/your rapid firing lol

Anything tonight?

[The Seer]

Monday night:
teaser jets -1.5 and 0ver 35
over 41.5


I don't normally recommend teasing totals but:
The Jet's ofensive redzone % is 64% which is 6th in the league however their defense has been a touch below average at 53%. New York is giving up 25 per game and Miami 24 ppg. Jets score 24 per game, Mia 17. At closer look Dolphin's D-coordinator Mike Nolan's defenses have given up 20, 30, 33, 41 & 52 pts. the last 5 years off the bye week.. With Moore at QB, it's a little shaky but I expect a 30 to 20 game. I don't trust the Jets laying a TD or more though.

gonna look at some props as well

[Lazyboy311]

Awesome. Already placed a sturdy over wager but threw in the teaser for giggles.

BOL always

[The Seer]

adding:
prop Sanchez passing yards over 224.5 yds -120

I'm projecting 260 tonight

[Lazyboy311]

adding:
prop Sanchez passing yards over 224.5 yds -120

I'm projecting 260 tonight

Does yardage on INT returns count too?? I joke...

[The Seer]

Arkansas St vs Florida International

Let's look at this game a little closer. Both programs are making great strides. Both are 4-2. FIU has beaten some arguably quality teams such as Central Florida and Louisville but they've also lost to Duke and Louisiana Laf. at home, both of which were track meets. Arkansas State's only two losses were to top 25 teams on the road, VT and Illinois. FIU gives up 245.3 passing yards per game, but that’s with playing two teams, Akron and North Texas, that throw it like a shot put. A State averages 303.5 passing yds per game. WR Dwayne Frampton gets over a third of that. FIU is susceptible to the big play in the passing game. A state demolished MTSU it's last time on ESPN2 last year 52-24. Freeze was the offensive coordinator. His up-tempo spread offense, the Red Wolves broke nine offensive school records that included 4,841 yards of total offense and went over 300 yards every single game last year. It has picked up where it left off. ASU is one of eight teams in the country to post 600 yards at least twice and ranks among No. 19 in passing offense and No. 36 in total offense. In addition ASU is No. 10 nationally in tackles for loss and tied for No. 35 in scoring defense, thanks to Dave Wommack’s scheme. Total defense ranks No. 34 thanks to a unit that has yet to yield a 100-yard rusher. A St will have to worry about FIU's Ty Hilton though. He's gonna make some plays. Florida International is averaging 406.3 yards a game including 248.7 passing yards and 157.7 rushing yards. The Panthers are scoring 27.8 points a game. The kicker here for me is that I know Freeze. We have coached against each other. He is one of the best motivators and up & coming coaches you will see. He also has a big ego. He will try to run it up if given a chance. Freeze is a Memphis native & the U of Memphis gave him the snub when he applied for their head coaching positon. In return he ran up the score on them earlier this year. He will do his best to put on a show for the cameras tonight. This crowd will be amped for an ESPN national audience. I expect some scoring but the total has dropped 2 points. FIU's win at Louisville & the fact that A State has gone under 5 of their 6 games due to some turnovers concerns me also. However, ASU scores more points at home & I expect them to play well.
This is what I've got.
Here's what I'm going with,
Tail at your own risk:

Arkansas St -3 2 unit
over 52.5 1 units
parlay both 1 unit
Ak St total team points over 28 1 unit (5 dimes)

[The Seer]

it looks like the over caught steam boys. I think we are in business here, beating that 54.5 by 2 points. I'm not sure if the light rain caused a concern earlier or not. It was never a concern for me knowing it wasn't gonna last and that ASU has field turf. GL everyone.

[james4512]

TY Hilton FIU's best player was out the last 3 games thats why they lost 2 of 3 hopefully you know that hes back tonight. He'll be the best player on the field

[The Seer]

TY Hilton FIU's best player was out the last 3 games thats why they lost 2 of 3 hopefully you know that hes back tonight. He'll be the best player on the field

it's in my write up but it wont matter

[The Seer]

Auburn +23 snagging this before it gets taken off the boards with LSU suspensions. Too many points vs a quality team. Even with the bye week ahead, Lsu has got to be looking a little ahead to Bama. On top of that, add in suspensions for LSU.

[blackbeSSt]

the first career start for auburns qb doesn't bother you at all?

[The Seer]

the first career start for auburns qb doesn't bother you at all?

no, because he has game experience. He's an upgrade over Trotter, & Malzah has a run oriented spread so I'm not too worried about turnovers. The suspensions will be a huge distraction to LSU this week.

[Holtgetsback]

gl this week seer.
my plays so far. let me know what you think

[389] WISCONSIN -7½-110
[307] RUTGERS +2-110
[317] MARYLAND +17½-110
[326] SOUTH FLORIDA -3-110
[327] NORTH CAROLINA +11-110
[387] AUBURN +23½-110
[353] OKLAHOMA STATE -6½ -110
[376] NORTHWESTERN +4 -110
[315] ILLINOIS -4 -110
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr class="TrGameEven"><td>
</td><td colspan="1" align="left">
</td><td align="right">
</td></tr></tbody></table>

[shocktopme]

thurs. night

Obviously UCF M/L.....but whats your play on spead and total my friend?

[blackbeSSt]

hmmm, looks like the books are really concerned about the suspensions. game still up and hasn't moved much

[The Seer]

hmmm, looks like the books are really concerned about the suspensions. game still up and hasn't moved much

Square shops still have it at 23 or so because generally public doesnt care about that number. They just bet on teams & at whatever number. Pinny, cris books won't move it under 21 because they cant afford to get middled by sharps. It looks like a great bet to me at +23.

[The Seer]

gl this week seer. my plays so far. let me know what you think [389] WISCONSIN -7½-110 [307] RUTGERS +2-110 [317] MARYLAND +17½-110 [326] SOUTH FLORIDA -3-110 [327] NORTH CAROLINA +11-110 [387] AUBURN +23½-110 [353] OKLAHOMA STATE -6½ -110 [376] NORTHWESTERN +4 -110 [315] ILLINOIS -4 -110 <table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr class="TrGameEven"><td> </td><td colspan="1" align="left"> </td><td align="right"> </td></tr></tbody></table>

holter, I am weary of CF because Im not sure this team is good enough to lay that kind of points on the road even against UAB. MD could be devastated after giving up that kinda lead. Could be trouble game for OK ST. I think Aub & NC are solid though. NCAAF has been tough for me so far though.

[Holtgetsback]

holter, I am weary of CF because Im not sure this team is good enough to lay that kind of points on the road even against UAB. MD could be devastated after giving up that kinda lead. Could be trouble game for OK ST. I think Aub & NC are solid though. NCAAF has been tough for me so far though.

Hey Seer, how many fukkin broads you nailed this week pal? Im on south florida

Seer, do not worry about oklahoma state. Ok st played about as bad as they could have last week and they still covered. If mizzou has 1 fukkin three and out they are in trouble.

as far as maryland, if they give up big plays it will be close. florida state doesnt scare anyone running the football and I dont think Maryland QB CJ Brown will allow his team to lose by more than 17.

rutgers +2 you see the line movement on this game?? fukkin billy walters must be all over the cardinals. anyways these teams are a mirror image of each other but I think rutgers offensive is more consistent so I will take the points.

big ten has been my bread and butter the last few seasons

illinois -4 < season definer. i think they will roll purdue.

northwestern +4 this game is a trap. NW is solid and will put points on the board. can't say the same about Penn state.

Wisconsin -7 1/2 I took state last week and while I respect Kurt Cousins...this Wisconsin team is on a mission and in a different class..

ru

[The Seer]

taking the points
UAB +17 even

[The Seer]

I think there is 5 fans at UAB's stadium, Legion Field

the other game:
UCLA +5 -105 I think this is real close, maybe an an outright win but I'll take the 5.

[The Seer]

Friday night:
Louisville +1
Syracuse +14.5

[iceminers26]

good luck tonight Seer, like Louisville but scared of Cuse... no way would I lay DD either on the road though with WVU in conference play, stay away game for me... good luck bud

[shocktopme]

.

Good luck pal....I got Louis but W. Va. at -14.....14.5 might be a gem though

[pokernut9999]

Friday night:
Louisville +1
Syracuse +14.5

2 winners

[jjgold]

Seer is fukkin due

lets nail them Stud

[The Seer]

thanks icer, shocker, poker, and mr gold. Good start for the weekend. I gotta add up the new totals, loving tomorrow's card and I'll have some write ups in the morning including my biggest bet this year going off tomorrow night.

[Lazyboy311]

Friday night:
Louisville +1
Syracuse +14.5

Well played, sir. Look forward to card

[Joe Sharp]

Like the sound of that!

[The Seer]

getting on track now picking up a few units in ncaaf. now 52-52 -3.55 units. It should start to get real nice as Vegas has over inflated the lines on the big faves.

early games:
Indiana +23
Cincy ML +135
North Carolina +10.5
Missouri +7.5
Kansas +11.5
Duke +3.5

[jgray]

getting on track now picking up a few units in ncaaf. now 52-52 -3.55 units. It should start to get real nice as Vegas has over inflated the lines on the big faves. early games: Indiana +23 Cincy ML +135 North Carolina +10.5 Missouri +7.5 Kansas +11.5 Duke +3.5

I play a lot more favorites than you and totally agree with this statement. I think there's a few favorites that have some potential, but hell's a coming today for favorite betters, me thinks. Good luck today, Seer.

[The Seer]

thanks j,

adding:

Jacksonville St +12
This is worth a unit. I wouldn't be surprised if they beat Kentucky outright. I look for it to be a struggle for Kentucky all day long.

[shocktopme]

.

Hey Seer...off the record whats your plays on GT/Mia,NC state/Virginia and Penn. St./NW....Need some winners for a contest....If ya got time to look into I'd gladly appreciate......Thanx friend

[The Seer]

Hey Seer...off the record whats your plays on GT/Mia,NC state/Virginia and Penn. St./NW....Need some winners for a contest....If ya got time to look into I'd gladly appreciate......Thanx friend

Mia has injuries on the D line. GT should find some holes. I think NC State has a shot at the outright win. NW can score and Penn State can't. Considering all 3 as plays myself. GL on whatever you do.