I was salivating, waiting for the books to overreact to CC's poor performance over the last month or so but I was especially waiting for them to overreact to the way he has pitched against the Red Sox.
You can imagine my surprise when I saw them open at -150 on pinnacle. I said at that moment "Wow they actually got that line just about perfect as it relates to probability. But that is a dumb thing to do. People will want to jizz all over the Red Sox there. They could've made the yankees -135 and gotten only a very small dip in action on the Red Sox. IOW they could still get tons of action on the sox but at a bad number so the book's would be sitting pretty."
Like clockwork they get pounded at a slightly -ev(at best for them) line instead of getting essentially the same betting discrepancy only, this time, they would hold a position against extremely -ev plays.
Obviously as a bettor I was glad to see the yankees dip down to -131 and I took it.
You can imagine my surprise when I saw them open at -150 on pinnacle. I said at that moment "Wow they actually got that line just about perfect as it relates to probability. But that is a dumb thing to do. People will want to jizz all over the Red Sox there. They could've made the yankees -135 and gotten only a very small dip in action on the Red Sox. IOW they could still get tons of action on the sox but at a bad number so the book's would be sitting pretty."
Like clockwork they get pounded at a slightly -ev(at best for them) line instead of getting essentially the same betting discrepancy only, this time, they would hold a position against extremely -ev plays.
Obviously as a bettor I was glad to see the yankees dip down to -131 and I took it.
