Fishhead: Iowa Hawkeyes Over 7.5 Wins -135

[Sunde91]

Will be favored in 10 games with a cake schedule that doesn't include Wisc, OSU, Illinois.

http://www.nationalchamps.net/2011/earlybird/teams/iowa.htm

Any special insight from you before I place bet?

[bobby heenan]

the line is pretty sharp......

ferentz is a heck of a coach...so it wouldnt shock me if this is an easy winner...but they are replacing a very experienced qb....but ferentz always does a great job with his offensive line...and they could rely on running and defense

first 4 are pretty winnable....but at penn st is a tough one....even northwestern at home could be tough...fitzgerald is a good coach and persa is a beast.....mich and mich st are at home....but tough games....and nebraska on the road.....

should probably hit....but i dunno

[Fishhead]

the line is pretty sharp......

ferentz is a heck of a coach...so it wouldnt shock me if this is an easy winner...but they are replacing a very experienced qb....but ferentz always does a great job with his offensive line...and they could rely on running and defense

first 4 are pretty winnable....but at penn st is a tough one....even northwestern at home could be tough...fitzgerald is a good coach and persa is a beast.....mich and mich st are at home....but tough games....and nebraska on the road.....

should probably hit....but i dunno

Yes they will have an INexperienced QB in Vandenberg, but he could turn out to be a very good one(one scout on the big ten network stated he will be the best passer in the BIG TEN). I've watched him several times and he is the least of Iowa's worries. Their offensive line will be better than most teams lines with a couple really good kids anchoring it. Running back Coker, very similar to Shonn Greene, will be a terriffic at RB and may be better than Greene when all said and done.

The biggest problem this team will face is on defense and with the kicking game................the defense will be AVERAGE AT BEST, and their kicking game WILL BE SUBPAR.


Yes, they are favored in 9 of the 12 games on the schedule(neb, psu, msu)


I would lean to the OVER 7.5 more so than the UNDER..............but then again, that's why one is laying -135.................this line is spot on right now, thus, no value that I see.

[bobby heenan]

coker was a beast in the bowl game against mizzou...i played iowa pretty large in that game.....amazing finish with the pick of gabbert

i was also on them against wisconsin on the ml...they really let me down in that one though....gettin beat on the fake punt

[jjgold]

good bet

9-3 or 8-4

[Fishhead]

coker was a beast in the bowl game against mizzou...i played iowa pretty large in that game.....amazing finish with the pick of gabbert

i was also on them against wisconsin on the ml...they really let me down in that one though....gettin beat on the fake punt

Horribly brutal

[BigdaddyQH]

Iowa loses a lot of players, and Ferentz is the most overrated head coach in the Big 10. He will be a dog in at least 3 games (at Penn State, at Nebraska, and home to MSU) and could well lose all three of those games. yhou are also giving away -135. One would think that Iowa could win 8 games, but there is no value in this play. Not at -135.

[Sunde91]

Iowa is already -1 vs. MSU. Line will be -3 or more after MSU has 3-4 losses and loses respect. MSU was most overrated team in country last year. Escaped with wins vs. lowly ND, NW, Purdue. Beat Wisc at home before Wisc got rolling. Never played OSU. Exposed and beatdown @ Iowa (Wisc won in Iowa), and again vs. Bama. They were spared 2+ losses by luck alone.

Something like -120 would make this a great play, but vig isn't high enough to say "no value". they win 8+ games, not less than 57% of time

1) Very Favorable Schedule. They will positively be favored in 10 games. No Wisconsin, Illinois, or OSU.

2) Returning RB Coker and 4/5 OL. Marcus Coker played in 7 games last year (late in season, no cream puffs) and rushed for 622 yards. He is a 1000+ yard back without doubt. 4/5 OL coming back is huge.

3) Junior QB Vandenberg is ready to lead + All-Conference SR WR McNutt Returns. Losing Stanzi won't be a big loss; Vandenberg may be better. Vandenberg was thrown into the fire in 2009 @ OSU after Stanzi went down. Iowa was 17 point dogs, and Vandenberg kept them right in it before losing in OT. He threw 20/33 (60%) 2 TDs, 3 INTs. Completion % is ridiculous for a then FR QB making 1st start on road against the then 5th rated Defense in the country. He sat all of last year. He is hungry and ready to lead this year. This gives a glimpse of Vandenberg's confidence and attitude http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/30877/fearless-vandenberg-ready-to-lead-iowa

4) Iowa has had good years when expectations were low. Iowa had a disappointing 7-5 last year after starting top 10. This year most have them picked 4th in Legends division. Look at 2009, 11-2, BCS Bowl win, and had a season win total of 8 and picked to finish 4th in Big Ten. In 2007, Iowa went 5-7, went completely off radar, then came back in 2008 and went 9-4 with a bowl win, Ricky Stanzi starting his first year. This year looks mighty similar.

Opponent / Iowa spread / Win prob converted from spread

Tennessee Tech / -30+ / 99%
@Iowa State / -7 / 70%
PITT / -7.5 / 73%
Louisiana-Monroe / -21+ / 95%
@PSU / +4.5 / 37%
NW / -6 / 66%
Indiana / -14 / 85%
@MINN / -9.5 / 75%
MICH / -4.5 / 63%
MSU / -1 / 51%
@Purude / -6 / 66%
@Nebraska / +10 / 23%

They could easily start 8-1 and lose the last 3 and it would still win. I say 9 wins, but 8-4 is the most probable, so I'll take O 7.5 and the win in that case rather than O 8 +150 and a push or a prayer for a win in Lincoln in the final game.

[goblue12]

Love their schedule. Could very well be playing Nebraska for a spot in the title game on rivalry week.

[Dutch]

I'm expecting an 8-4 season.

[Fishhead]

Again, their defense and kicking game is going to be this teams downfall....................after having tons of speed on defense the past 3-5 years, this defense is once again on the slow side.

Way to many question marks in the kicking game also, as mentioned.


The game AT IOWA STATE will not be easy early on..................look for a real battle, a battle Iowa could very easily lose.

[HoulihansTX]

[/B]



Horribly brutal

I have never seen Wisky do something creative. But the first time they do, I lose $500 in the process.

[Hawksit]

Be weary of the defense. Undersized, inexperienced but the quickest Iowa has had. Hopefully will pay dividends against the spread offenses they see.

My guess is 8-4.

[No coincidences]

You'll be sweating out that 8th win -- especially if ISU or Pitt clips them early.

[No coincidences]

What's Iowa's record vs. NW in the past 5-7 years? Seems like they never beat them. They run a base defense that doesn't adjust well to spread offenses -- especially if the personnel isn't there defensively. And I agree with Fish -- they're lacking speed on defense. No offense to guys like Nielsen and Morris at LB, but they're not exactly Greenway and Hodge if you know what I mean.

[MartinBlank]

I bust on Fish---but he nailed this one.

At that number, it just doesn't look valuable.

What happens if Iowa has an injury or two? especially at QB?

[Dutch]

What happens if Iowa has an injury or two? especially at QB?

This.

[No coincidences]

This.

Weinke.

[hubie69]

I'm with you fischy, I like it.

[Donkwin47]

[/B]



Horribly brutal

[clarkd32]

Derby is the backup QB...not Weinke

[Sunde91]

I have too many units in futures with great lines already and wont lay a bad price now. This is a pass unless I get a real good price like -110. Pinnacle already moved Over 8 from +156 to +179, so we'll see.