Can the Best/Luckiest Capper hit 60% long-term?

[k13]

Looking at some data, surprisingly NO.

5 years ago I would have laughed at that myself but the longer the sample the lower the % goes.

You look at some contests on the internet were thousands are involved, these are the types where usually one or two will jump out from the standard deviation but yet to see any. No lucky runs of 70-80%. None.

There's no money risked so it should be even easier.


Where the high % seems to start to diminish is around the 150-400 sample.

65-75% are very possible to around a 100-150 sample.

[Powderguy]

Isn't this a known fact that you can't hit that kind of % long term? Not anything new here

[jjgold]

54% is best you can hit and that is a longshot

[warriorfan707]

what sport are you guys talking about?

I hit over 60% in MLB every year

and no they are not all juice plays

[k13]

Isn't this a known fact that you can't hit that kind of % long term? Not anything new here

Not from hearing some of the posters here and touts.

In my mind I think I can hit 60%+ every football season too....

[k13]

54% is best you can hit and that is a longshot

56-58% is possible.

Really too many variable for an exact number.

[rm18]

If you are really selective maybe but as I and others have said before no sharp gambler would hit 60% because that means you are leaving too many +EV 54% winners on the table.

[Darkside Magick]

my percentage in all bets i have played is 57.8%

i avg about 105 ~110 wagers a week.

[BettingWizard]

I've heard Billy Walters hits in the 55-58% range, not many or anybody has more info than him.

[chase hardy]

I have a buddy of mine that hits 60% in mlb about every year picking about 5-6 games a week. He bets minimal games for large amounts.

[wiffle]

my percentage in all bets i have played is 57.8%

i avg about 105 ~110 wagers a week.

pics of yacht?

[rm18]

Walters hit 57-58% many years ago but it was way easier then when I was 13 years old I hit 70% in college football and I did not even have cable

[wantitall4moi]

win percentage means very little but in a spread based sport getting the very best line and using as much info as you can find it is possible to hit 60%. I would also think that it could be possible over 200 games. So a record of 120-80, or more realistic 115-75-10.

I had a stretch back in 2000 where I hit over 80% over 50+ games, I would have to get the print outs out to get exact results, but it was less than 10 losses. But basically with that short term result I could have hit only 75 of my next 150 plays and still done better than 60%. So 50/50 over 150 plays to keep a 60% win rate over 200 plays. So it is very possible to do it if you have an epic short trm run.

EDIT: not sure what I did do, I am sure it was better than 50%, but since it wasnt so frigging sick to be noticeable I didnt bother to track them.

[k13]

We really need everyone to pick every nfl game this year and see how that turns out.

[dice]

I believe the Computer Group (Billy Walters) hit between 55% to 60% on thousands of bets in the early 80s. Can anyone verify this? I believe you can consistently hit 60% on low profile college football games. I believe that today the oddsmakers have most of the high profile college football and basketball games and professional sports spreads statistically accurate due to the amount of information that is available.

[tofuman]

pics of yacht?

but his sample size is <1000. he has no yacht.