Fading Streak for Cash!

Inkwell77 · 08-15-11, 10:41 PM

For tomorrow 96% of the SFTC peeps that have chosen the Lynx/Sun are currently backing the Lynx. The Lynx are a 1 point favorite. The home dog Sun are a play within the system.

Also the Atlanta Dream are a 1 point favorite on the road in LA, but are only receiving 19%.

We have a -130 White Sox team playing a Cleveland Indians team that are receiving 76% of the support.

One game that is on the borderline of fitting within the system is the Mariners (Vargas) vs Toronto (Milis). Toronto is getting 88% of the votes, but are only -115 to win the game

Inkwell77 · 08-16-11, 03:56 PM

So the plays today within the system are

Atlanta Dream -110 pk
Connecticut Sun -110 +1.5pts, or ML if you can find it.
Seattle Mariners ML -105
Chicago White Sox -120

yisman · 08-16-11, 04:14 PM

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/978645-streak-cash-dogs.html

was one thread, but that was for underdogs.

There have been a few threads tried about fading the high percentages.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-handicapping/1041966-plays-based-off-espn-streak-cash.html

Inkwell77 · 08-16-11, 05:05 PM

Thanks for those links! Seems like neither system really held on long term, probably what will happen with this system... but hopefully not!

I guess I'm looking at vegas favorites/pickem who are the public (sftc) dog.

So I was just backtracking the WNBA this season and when 70% or more in SFTC is on one side the results are decent.
Fading the public has yielded 15 wins/covers while going along with the sftc crowd has yielded 11 wins/covers. 57.6%. If you would have played ML dogs you would be doing even better.

Was thinking of looking into MLS next, but I'm not sure where I can find previous MLS odds. Does anyone know of a site that shows those?

ebbearsfb1 · 08-16-11, 05:10 PM

anything in the 90% i would say fade away.

ebbearsfb1 · 08-16-11, 05:11 PM

pirates, uconn sun, and angels maybe atl dream

3 dogs

ebbearsfb1 · 08-16-11, 08:13 PM

suns blowing out the lynx

Inkwell77 · 08-17-11, 12:52 AM

so the system worked today, haha. Probably won't work tomorrow. 3 wins and 1 loss. The loss was a -105 so I guess we could just say that is 1 unit, this isn't really exact at the moment.

So far 4 wins and 1 loss, overall.

And fading WNBA in streak for cash has yielded 17 wins and 11 loses. Kinda crazy stuff for WNBA

Inkwell77 · 08-17-11, 06:15 AM

So the only play today within the system is LA Angels at -115. 70% of sftc is on the Rangers.

slatter · 08-17-11, 07:12 AM

"I know this is a system, and it probably won't be profitable, but whatever."

Well, at least you're being realistic about it.

Inkwell77 · 08-18-11, 02:47 AM

Angels battled, but lost.

4 wins and 2 losses. probably +1.7 units or something

Tomorrow the plays within the system are
LA Sparks
NY Liberty
(Dodgers are very close to being a play, they are a -125 favorite and 67% of the public is backing the Brewers)

Perfect example of the public. The Sun beat the Lynx the other day when 96% was backing the Lynx. Now just a few days later the Sun are playing again and 96% are now backing the Sun.

Glitch · 08-18-11, 02:56 AM

you should add some exceptions- rangers have won 9 outta their last 10, brewers have won 12 outta their last 13. both are now on 6-game win-streaks.

i think you have a good system here but its just not smart to look at these teams in current form at this point of the season as data points. maybe theres a way to factor in which teams are steamrollers right now.

if you dont add exceptions- the results will be skewed and we will not be able to tell if this is the foundation of an effective betting system or not.

FindTheLock · 08-18-11, 03:09 AM

as someone who has played SFTC for about 8 months I will tell you that on certain weeks this system will look brilliant, but then you will meet an equalizer week where all the favorites cover. It will end up costing you the juice in the long run like most other systems. u might get slightly better than 50 percent over a longer sample size.

Inkwell77 · 08-18-11, 04:29 AM

Originally posted by FindTheLock

as someone who has played SFTC for about 8 months I will tell you that on certain weeks this system will look brilliant, but then you will meet an equalizer week where all the favorites cover. It will end up costing you the juice in the long run like most other systems. u might get slightly better than 50 percent over a longer sample size.

Yeah man, I backtested yesterday quite a ways with baseball. From this point in the season and on last year this system was not profitable, at least with MLB. It's too hard to lay the juice in baseball with this system. Because you will be laying -120 and -130 often, and you have to hit more than 53% in that situation and this is too difficult.

It does look like this system (or a system sorta like it) could be profitable in other sports. In WNBA this season it is at about 60%, which is crazy even though the sample size is small. Although I was backtesting a little bit into WNBA last year and it is looking decent (still way small sample size)

Inkwell77 · 08-18-11, 04:38 AM

Originally posted by Glitch

you should add some exceptions- rangers have won 9 outta their last 10, brewers have won 12 outta their last 13. both are now on 6-game win-streaks.

i think you have a good system here but its just not smart to look at these teams in current form at this point of the season as data points. maybe theres a way to factor in which teams are steamrollers right now.

if you dont add exceptions- the results will be skewed and we will not be able to tell if this is the foundation of an effective betting system or not.

Yes! This is a good point. I've been trying to come up with certain angles to take into consideration. It's tough finding angles that actually make some sense (not this - the Rockies have lost every Sunday in a row - nonsense)

I don't really follow MLB so I'm definitely ignorant to many aspects of the game.

The best part about sftc is that you can look at previous days data, and then you can compare it to scores and odds or whatever. If you could combine those and backtest certain other factors/angles (probably mathematical) something could definitely come up.

FindTheLock · 08-18-11, 04:49 AM

it is a possibility, but joe pub can be right 50 percent of the time and the casino still cleans up. The problem with this system is you're fading the huge public favorites. So they will probably hit around 50 percent of the time after a while. There could be some angles to make the system work out at a higher percentage, but in the long run it doesn't pay to always lay chalk or always take dogs. Gambling is too complex to make white or black. There will always be a grey area of uncertainty.

immy5150 · 08-18-11, 09:02 AM

true, i tend to live in that "grey area"..fighting to change system, but for now sticking with it

Inkwell77 · 08-19-11, 01:04 AM

So the Sparks and Liberty both covered.
Dadgers also won, but they were on the border of being within the system, so we won't count that towards the results.

So 6 wins and 2 losses so far with this system (since we have been keeping track) and fading sftc in WNBA action this season is now at 19 wins and 11 losses.

Tomorrow I guess the A's are a play, receiving 15% of the public and are at +100 right now. The Mariners could also potentially be a play, but they are not within the system. The Rays are getting 64% of the votes, but the Mariners are -130 favorites.

Inkwell77 · 08-20-11, 12:05 AM

A's won, 2-0. The Mariners also later in the day became a play in the system and also in the CFL game the under 50.5 pts was a play in this ridiculous system. Mariners lost, but the CFL game went under the total, so I guess you could say it would be -.1 or -.2units.

System is 8 wins and 3 loses (If you include the CFL game and Mariners game which I guess I am going to include, why not, it doesn't matter anyway). +4.5 units or something close to that for the system.

Tomorrow there are no plays that fit the system, the line movement in that Saints/Texans game is crazy.

yisman · 08-20-11, 09:26 PM

I'll follow along. I think I'll go back to fading big favorites in football season. Would do it for basketball too, but no NBA. Still NCAAB, though.

Inkwell77 · 08-21-11, 12:33 AM

There is a play for tomorrow.

The A's at home against the Blue Jays. A's are -125 favorites currently and the line opened at -135. 85% of sftc are backing the Blue Jays.

Inkwell77 · 08-21-11, 12:40 AM

Originally posted by yisman

I'll follow along. I think I'll go back to fading big favorites in football season. Would do it for basketball too, but no NBA. Still NCAAB, though.

Cool. I've been using 70% for sftc on one side even though I started with the idea of 60%. More plays with 60%, but seems like that percentage might be too small when betting against the betting public. Who knows?!

Seems like it might have a chance to be profitable in NFL and college too, especially with the -110 line and a 1 to 2 point spread instead of having to lay -130 and -120 lines all the time with baseball.

Inkwell77 · 08-22-11, 07:58 PM

This is late, but there was a play today, the Nationals line moved from being the dog to the favorite and 90% on sftc were on the Diamondbacks.
Tomorrow it looks like the Rangers might be a play against the Red Sox.