People Who Don't Believe in Big Favorites In Baseball

[Sawyer]

Can you please explain to me why

Because dogs are winning more often in September, more upsets..
Favourites win more often during July&August.
Dogs rock in September&April.

[JoJo5473]

Rosters expand in September and teams bring in a bunch of minor leaguers to give them some games under their belts. Also teams who are 6-10 games up in their division are rotating their players to rest and get them ready for playoffs.

That makes sense, thanks

[iceminers26]

the new SBR

[Dharmonize]

Very insteresting and informative thread, actually I´ve even copied parts of some posts to use them later when explaining possible newbies I might come across the basics of betting and setting the strategy. And I find some of it inspiring myself, as I have recently - as a convinced dog bettor - been experimenting with trying to choose the right faves. However, I haven´t come to any conclusion in this research yet. Anyway, GL everyone and keep winning!

[Redscot]

Good topic Brahma...and good thread with solid feedback.

Here's what I would add:



Then why wouldn't you? 90% at -200 is very profitable? Heck, 90% at -300 is profitable.



Awesome post and response. I would also add to read the applicable sections of Conquering Risk.

At the of the day, it really is about setting your own lines and trying to find where the Books are off 1/2 run or more on a total or maybe ten cents on a ML. If you bet those mistakes early enough to beat the line moves, and as a result beat the closer on a regular basis, you will be a long-term successful sports investor. Success cannot be measured by a couple month's worth of results, it's about season-long profit year after year.

Brah, I have to give you your props for your recent streak. However, with faves hitting at unprecedented rate during your streak, you have to admit that coincidence added to your success...at least to some extent. Clearly, if you continued to bet faves at your same rate, the unprecedented rate of faves cashing will eventually drop and so will your bankroll. Just be careful and don't think you are sole person in the world that can continue to hit at such a high rate. I hope you do, but do you really think that is going to happen?

Just be smart with money management and never get too cocky in this game. Variance has a way of humbling even the most confident of us and you need to be prepared for the tough times.

Keep refining and improving your capping techniques and never stop learning. Rich Boy's post offered some solid advice. Whether or not you publicly agree with his advice has little importance, but you should try to take
something out of it and learn in private. Try to be a sponge and learn as much as possible, especially the math involved.

Sounds like you had a great start and really know your stuff. Congrats...just don't stop learning. Good luck.

Can't get much better advice than that Brahma. Hope you listen my man, and hope you continue to roll.

[brahmabull117]

Can't get much better advice than that Brahma. Hope you listen my man, and hope you continue to roll.

The most important part is me continuing to roll

[warriorfan707]

Because people are retarded donkeys

Then they come on here and bitch about how their "value" play lost and how they are broke

[Duby]

I agree there are spots where it's worth laying the juice. You only pay if you lose right....

Problem with most people is they don't use proper money management so a -200 loss kills their roll.

[goldengreek]

This is going to end badly for so many people

[NYSportsGuy210]

Today is a good example to test out betting favorites. Take the Braves, Phillies, Rangers and Rays all ML today and let's see if August continues favorable.

[BetterBizness]

Train WReck TV at its finest... Not one humble post yet... Although it has been informative in places, mostly because some smart people put some effort in, but uh.. ya...

[Sdotbold]

The most important part is me continuing to roll

A wise man once told me, Pride comes before the fall. Take heed in what some of these guys are saying. Regression to the mean is inevitable.

[Avenger]

What is halladay's money totals if you took him every game this year??

Dunno... but I chased him all season... and it paid my rent and thensome.

I'm not going to huff and puff over my computer against the "sharps" and say that favs aren't the way to go.

Favs work for me and this is my 4th year making a profit on MLB and 2nd year at killing it (first two years I was tad better than dart thrower). Everyone has their system... whatever works for you.

But I will say one thing... you gotta find creative ways to cut the juice or minimize your losses. That's a stat I trust, if you play favs every day or parlay all favs every day, you will be down BIG TIME. I tried round-robining all favs early this season and I lost a lot, even though I was killing it with my other systems.

Anyways... BOL. I agree with your strategy, but your threads are drama-bombs, so I'm avoiding them from here.

[BernardMadoff]

A wise man once told me, Pride comes before the fall. Take heed in what some of these guys are saying. Regression to the mean is inevitable.

Same quote my mom used to tell me over and over when I was little Told him this during the basketball season, afterwards think he got shelled, went away for a while now back again. Gotta stay humble.

[ThaWoj]

A wise man once told me, Pride comes before the fall. Take heed in what some of these guys are saying. Regression to the mean is inevitable.

just curious as to why "regression to the mean is inveitable" has to be true. why cant each game be an independent sample? just as a number on a roulette wheel or a roll of the dice, a game should not have any "memory" of a prior event (disregarding intangibles such as injuries, personnel, weather, etc). some might argue that if you roll 6 hard tens in a row at the craps table, the regression to the mean, in this case being a "7" should be inevitable. i disagree though. i believe each is independent of a prior instance. rolling 6 hard tens in a row does not make it any more likely that 7's are gonna start lighting up the table.

[BernardMadoff]

just curious as to why "regression to the mean is inveitable" has to be true. why cant each game be an independent sample? just as a number on a roulette wheel or a roll of the dice, a game should not have any "memory" of a prior event (disregarding intangibles such as injuries, personnel, weather, etc). some might argue that if you roll 6 hard tens in a row at the craps table, the regression to the mean, in this case being a "7" should be inevitable. i disagree though. i believe each is independent of a prior instance. rolling 6 hard tens in a row does not make it any more likely that 7's are gonna start lighting up the table.

Thats true but youre not dealing with several teams or different outcomes in one particular baseball game its either one team wins and one loses, go try flipping a coin 100 times and see how that comes out, yes each individual game is independent of the other, seemingly it is, but we're dealing with humans here and the topic is high moneylines in which we know lose and can quite often.

[BettingWizard]

[hawley]

Wow Brah must of lost it all if he hasnt posted again

Didnt even cash out a few thousand?

[Sawyer]

A's sweeping Yanks.. End of favourites, lol.

[Avenger]

They're 5 days ahead of schedule. Thought moose season started sept 1.

[allabout the $$$]

where did brah go maybe if he would have listened to us and stopped eating chalk he would have a bankroll left

[Not-A-Kid]

Why didn't brahma return tp this thread??

[Delicious]

He is back in other threads touting the same garbage and beating his chest about some new winning streak. This guy is hopeless.

[brahmabull117]

betting favorites the last 2/3 weeks in baseball is death just like square plays are death the last couple weeks of football season. I'm kinda finding this out myself cause I assumed these teams would play hard at least until they got the division clinched but it's just not the case. The yankees and phillies have played like dogsht against bad teams recently after tearing them a new azzhole pretty much all throughout the first five months of the season



for what it's worth, I made a ton of money in july and august betting on favorites (before I went into retard mode and bet it all on 3 games) so it can work as long as you can tolerate a losing streak here and there, and pretty much stop with the square plays around early to mid september



I still say betting favorites can be very profitable as long as you're betting on hot teams and hot pitchers... look at the tigers, brewers and diamondbacks in the 2nd half of the season. If you just bet a unit per game blindly on all 3 teams, you would have seen a massive ROI

[brahmabull117]

Because dogs are winning more often in September, more upsets.. Favourites win more often during July&August. Dogs rock in September&April.

the reason for this is teams with 6 -10 game leads simply don't give a sht if they win or not, they're just thinking about the playoffs




this is why the phillies have had a terrible record this month against bad teams

[neverstoppers23]

And when you hit a bad stretch of four games you will lose 1/2 of it. Trust me it will happen, there is no ifs about it.

[brahmabull117]

And when you hit a bad stretch of four games you will lose 1/2 of it. Trust me it will happen, there is no ifs about it.

well, the point is to play smart so even if you go 5-8 during a stretch, you only lose 10-20% of your bankroll



I don't think long/nasty losing streaks are something that naturally happens to everybody though. Long losing streaks are a lot of times a result of somebody going 0-3, losing confidence in their handicapping and chasing the money



to make a sports analogy, it's like a guy who has a couple bad games, loses his confidence and starts chasing balls out of the strikezone that are just not hittable. If you keep an even keel and don't get too high or too low, you can be in hot streak mode the overwhelming majority of the time



my mistake was starting to bet way too late in the season and then chasing the money when I had a couple unsuccesful plays. I think I can make a killing if I start betting around late april/may and then just ride it out until september when the dogs start to win more often

[goldengreek]

You havent learned a damn thing

[mighty maron]

I think I can make a killing if I start betting around late april/may and then just ride it out until september when the dogs start to win more often

Nah it would be the same old beatdown for the b. bull

[brahmabull117]

Nah it would be the same old beatdown for the b. bull

man I remember july/august now, I was on just an unconscious hot streak. At one point I won like 45 out of my 59 MLB plays and turned a 300 dollar bankroll into 7000 dollars




I just wish I could go back and tell myself to limit my plays to 300 dollars a play... I would have only lost a 1000 dollars on that fateful 0-3 day



and the worst part is that my last 2 would be plays of the day won (Toronto and LAA) but I didn't bet any money on them cause I lost it all in the yanks game

[Fa11en]

Didn't you promise not to post here anymore? Just a reminder, posted 8/27, after your mysterious leave.

The best part of this whole debacle is the fact that Shari buried him for his past cycles and predicted this exact thing to happen. Brahma insisted he was an improved gambler than before and demonstrated so by exercising no roll management, no model, didn't track units, and a sheer unwillingness to listen to what advise/help posters had to offer him.

His hubris got the best of him and as I am typing this, I'm sure he his rationalizing his loses and creating excuses rather than take accountability for his poor plays. Brahma even made Rod look like a saint for warning people off his plays. Brahma created some well intended threads but his douche character and immature way of handling opposing views finally caught up to him. The guy claimed he had a 100k job yet posted up 300 and talked as if the couple K he won made him big time. He lied, made up numbers for himself and resorted to "can't hold his jockstrap" retorts whenever questioned- all while having a wrestler for his avatar.

Hey Brahma, remember that imaginary thing called variance you refused to believe? It just caught up with you. As you will no doubt pop back in during football season, pretending that none of this ever happened, you will lose your next stake- and you deserve to lose everyone after that.

[LolsMcwinsey]

Didn't you promise not to post here anymore? Just a reminder, posted 8/27, after your mysterious leave.

The best part of this whole debacle is the fact that Shari buried him for his past cycles and predicted this exact thing to happen. Brahma insisted he was an improved gambler than before and demonstrated so by exercising no roll management, no model, didn't track units, and a sheer unwillingness to listen to what advise/help posters had to offer him.

His hubris got the best of him and as I am typing this, I'm sure he his rationalizing his loses and creating excuses rather than take accountability for his poor plays. Brahma even made Rod look like a saint for warning people off his plays. Brahma created some well intended threads but his douche character and immature way of handling opposing views finally caught up to him. The guy claimed he had a 100k job yet posted up 300 and talked as if the couple K he won made him big time. He lied, made up numbers for himself and resorted to "can't hold his jockstrap" retorts whenever questioned- all while having a wrestler for his avatar.

Hey Brahma, remember that imaginary thing called variance you refused to believe? It just caught up with you. As you will no doubt pop back in during football season, pretending that none of this ever happened, you will lose your next stake- and you deserve to lose everyone after that.

who the fk cares. this is the internet

[Double Bogey]

I don't think long/nasty losing streaks are something that naturally happens to everybody though. Long losing streaks are a lot of times a result of somebody going 0-3, losing confidence in their handicapping and chasing the money

This statement shows you have no clue. Even the best cappers have losing streaks. It has nothing to do with how good of capper you are, it happens to everyone. Instead of trying reinvent the wheel, why don't you try to learn from guys who have done this for a long time and been successful. Or you can be like most degenerate idiots who get hot, and then blow it all because of no bankroll management.